Friday, August 31, 2012

Greece and Spain can print their own Euros

Greece:
"An important point to keep in mind here is that there is no legal mechanism to force Greece to drop the euro and readopt the drachma. Hence the idea of choking off the Greek banking system and forcing the Greeks to renounce the euro versus organizing some type of formal action, such as a vote to eject Greece from the euro, which would not be allowed under current EU law.
But in the event of a full-fledged run on Greece's banking system, where Greek banks literally have no cash on hand to give to depositors, it would seem reasonable and (crucially) perhaps legal for the Greek central bank to start printing euro notes even if the ECB disavows this action.

If this were to take place is there anything the ECB could do to stop the Greek central bank from printing euros? Probably not.
It's hard to imagine the situation reaching a stage where the Greek central bank openly revolts against the ECB and starts printing euros. However, Greece need only hint at playing this card for it to have the desired effect, which is to force the ECB to continue accepting Greek bank collateral on reasonable terms. In other words, the fact the Greeks can print their own euros nullifies the ECB's ability to choke the Greek banking system into submission and force a 'voluntary' abandonment of the euro."

More on Greece:
"Greece should start to pay half of its civil service wages, pensions and other expenditures in drachmas now," Dobrint added. "A soft return to the old currency is better for Greece than a drastic move. Having the drachma as a parallel currency would allow the chance for economic growth to develop."
Dobrindt did not explain how Greece could manage a partial return to its old currency without triggering turmoil in financial markets and a likely run on its banks.

Oh boy! Where to start? Why would the Greeks want to go back to the drachma at this point in time, where's their advantage in that? And who's going to make them? Why wouldn't they just print euros instead? And not "Greek euros", but German ones (German euro bills have a series of numbers preceded by an "X" printed on them, other countries have a different letter)! Who's going to stop them from doing that? Germany? Really? What's Greek for "bite me"?
--http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/project-europe-is-over.html

On Spain:
"...what the Bank of Spain does when it extends ELA funding is that it prints euros and not pesetas. Therefore [the] risk [is] borne by all users of the euro, as a future write-off of the assets the BoS gets in return for extending these funds could potentially leave the newly printed money stranded in the economy."
--http://seekingalpha.com/article/821871-it-s-not-just-greece-spain-is-now-printing-euros

Let the printing presses begin!  Isn't it fun using someone else's credit card?

English speaking countries in Africa

How many countries in Africa have English as their official language?
  • Botswana
  • Cameroon (has both English and French as official languages)
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Kenya (also Swahili)
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Malawi
  • Mauritius, a group of islands off Madagascar
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda (has both English and French)
  • St. Helena, an island in the South Atlantic
  • Sierra Leone 
  • South Africa (also Afrikaans and native languages)
  • South Sudan
  • Sudan (also Arabic)
  • Swaziland
  • Tanzania (also Swahili)
  • Uganda (also Swahili)
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe
Update:  How many have Spanish as their official language?  The only one is Equatorial Guinea, as well as Spanish enclaves in Morocco (Ceuta and Melilla).

The 75 most dynamic cities of 2025

I previously listed what I thought were the top 60 cities in China and put my ranking in parenthesis for comparison.
  1. Shanghai (3)
  2. Beijing (2)
  3. Tianjin (5)
  4. Sao Paulo
  5. Guangzhou (4)
  6. Shenzhen (7)
  7. New York
  8. Chongqing (8)
  9. Moscow
  10. Tokyo
  11. Wuhan (9)
  12. Los Angeles
  13. Foshan (47)
  14. Istanbul
  15. Nanjing (13)
  16. Chengdu (18)
  17. Hangzhou (25)
  18. Dongguan (26)
  19. Singapore
  20. Shenyang (21)
  21. London
  22. Houston
  23. Dallas
  24. Xian (35)
  25. Washington
  26. Paris
  27. Suzhou (36)
  28. Mexico City
  29. Riyadh
  30. Hong Kong (1)
  31. Bangkok
  32. Buenos Aires
  33. Doha
  34. Rio de Janeiro
  35. Dalian (11)
  36. Wuxi (32)
  37. Seoul
  38. Chicago
  39. Delhi
  40. Ningbo (48)
  41. Jinan (15)
  42. Xiamen (17)
  43. Jakarta
  44. Miami
  45. Kuwait City
  46. Qingdao (16)
  47. Sydney
  48. Atlanta
  49. Brasilia
  50. Taipei (6)
  51. Rhine-Ruhr
  52. Toronto
  53. Mumbai
  54. Phoenix
  55. Harbin (27)
  56. Changzhou (33)
  57. San Francisco
  58. Hefei (51)
  59. Jeddah
  60. Melbourne
  61. Luanda
  62. Xuzhou (59)
  63. Tel Aviv-Jaffa
  64. Changsha (12)
  65. Abu Dhabi
  66. Lima
  67. Belo Horizonte
  68. Fuzhou (37)
  69. Ankara
  70. San Diego
  71. Philadelphia
  72. Tangshan (not listed)
  73. Santiago
  74. Seattle
  75. Bangalore
Source:  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/13/the_most_dynamic_cities_of_2025

Comments:
1) I find it interesting that it separates Foshan from Guangzhou.  That is like listing Ft. Worth separate from Dallas.
2) Hong Kong is ranked only #30.  By some measures, it is the top city in China.  Of course, a lot can happen in the next 13 years.
3) Suzhou is part of the Shanghai metro area, I think.
4) Macau isn't listed, but that is probably because only about 1/2 million people live there.
5) Tangshan wasn't on my list of Chinese cities.  It has 3.2 million in its urban area and is in Hebei province.  It is part of the Greater Beijing Metro Area.  I guess it is larger than Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei province, which I ranked as #24.
6) Other cities I ranked in the top 25 in China that aren't listed are: Changchun (#14), Nanchang (#19), Kaohsiung, Taiwan (#20), Zhuhai (#22), Nanning (#23).
7) For cities outside China, I last saw 25 as being far above the others.  Cities on that list that are not on this one are:  Osaka/Kobe (#11), Nagoya (#14), Boston (#16), Randstad (#19), Milan (#21)
8) I wouldn't rank these among the top 100 cities:  Bangkok, Delhi, Jeddah, Luanda, Lima, Belo Horizonte, Ankara, Bangalore.
9) I think some US cities are being overlooked: Boston (as previously mentioned), Minneapolis, Detroit, Denver.
10) San Francisco (assuming it means the Bay Area) should be ranked a lot higher than 57.
11) Other cities that should be considered:  Barcelona, Brussels, Frankfurt, Madrid, although I guess they are not expected to grow that much in the near future.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Only locals in Shanghai can buy property

"Shanghai, with its own dialect, has some of China’s strictest population controls. To be defined a “local,” one must be born in the city to Shanghainese parents, be a skilled professional with residence of at least seven years and tax receipts to prove it, or marry a Shanghai local and remain married for 10 years.
The residency policies fuel chauvinism by Shanghainese against newcomers and reinforce divisions between the two groups,"
--http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/love-limbo-in-shanghai-as-curbs-freeze-singles-from-home-market.html

This strengthens my theory that China is an empire made up of many different "countries", one of which is Shanghai.

Latvia is the new Switzerland

"Latvian banks are holding more foreign cash than ever before as Cyprus’s economic woes prompt wealthy depositors from the former Soviet Union to seek an alternative offshore home for their money.
As non-European inflows into Cyprus stagnate, about $1.2 billion flooded into Latvia in the first half of the year. Non- resident deposits are now $10 billion, about half the total, regulators say, exceeding 43 percent in Switzerland, according to that nation’s central bank."
--http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-29/swiss-style-latvian-banking-hub-thrives-on-ex-soviet-cash-flood

Belarus is a high tech hothouse

"Despite Belarus’s reputation as a phantom country self-exiled in the heart of Europe—Lukashenko expelled the U.S. ambassador in 2008—the country has turned itself into a high-tech hothouse. Six years ago a free-economic zone opened in Minsk, providing tax breaks to resident firms and employees. Since then, Belarusian software exports have grown by more than 2,000 percent, to $270 million last year."
--http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-08-23/the-skype-killers-of-belarus

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

A Ghost Chinese City in Angola

"Kilamba was conceived and constructed by state-owned China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC) as the largest of several new "satellite cities" being built  by the Chinese in Angola. The $3.5 billion “city” was designed for 500,000 occupants, to be housed in the 2,800 apartment units that fill out the housing blocks. But these remain empty, as the BBC reports, in large part to the purportedly extravagant costs of the apartments – as high as $80,000 – that lay beyond the reach of most Angolan families which subsist on criminally low wages and have little to no access to large loans and mortgages."
--http://www.theatlanticcities.com/design/2012/07/ghost-city-angola-built-chinese/2608/

Fiscal Child Abuse

Laurence Kotlikoff, economist at Boston University, says that the true government debt is $222 trillion. He call this fiscal child abuse, to force them participate in a generational Ponzi scheme that they will never benefit from.

Monday, August 27, 2012

What is Gangnam style?

Generally speaking, "Gangnam" is the south of the Han River in Seoul while "Gangbuk" is the north of the river, in which gang means "river," that is, the Han River, nam is "south", and buk is "north". Gangbuk has been the heart of Seoul in every way until lately when Gangnam started being developed in the 70's. Gangnam was an undeveloped rural area, especially Korean cabbage and Korean pear fields.

The development process of Gangnam kicked into high gear in the 80’s and caused such problems as land value bubbles and real estate speculation.  In short, it's like the U.S. Upper East Side plus Beverly Hills minus tradition; or I’d rather say it's more like "Dubai" built on Korean cabbage and Korean pear fields.

The uneven development between Gangnam and Gangbuk has made the former more affluent and its residents richer but made the latter lag behind and its residents feel deprived emotionally as well as economically.  Over the past four decades, Gangnam has become an iconic place to Korean people, representing wealth, status, and luxurious life.  PSY’s "Gangnam Style" is a satire about the Gangnam life itself which is nothing but materialistic and about people who are chasing rainbows, dreaming of becoming a Gangnam resident someday.
--http://mydearkorea.blogspot.com/

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Football follies

I'm not really into college football but I find the politics off the field very interesting, particularly as they relate to western teams.  Here is a recent history:

====================================
Phase I - The Good Old Days (pre-1996)
The Big 8 consisted of CU, Nebraska, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The Southwest Conference consisted of Arkansas, Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas A&M, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech and Houston.
The Western Athletic Conference (WAC) consisted of BYU, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, UTEP, San Diego State, Hawaii, Air Force and Fresno State.

Life was good.  Except the Southwest Conference was mortally wounded.  Arkansas was the first to go, in 1990 to the Southeastern Conference (SEC).

====================================
Phase II - First Grand Realignment (1996-1999)
The Southwest Conference implodes, with Baylor, Texas, Texas AM, and Texas Tech moving to the Big 8, which became the Big 12.  Rice, SMU, and TCU joined the WAC.  Houston joined the newly formed Conference USA (C-USA).

The WAC also admitted as members UNLV, Tulsa, and San Jose State, to become a mega-conference with 16 members.

====================================
Phase III- The Mountain West emerges (2000-2011)
The WAC was too unwieldly, and so the Mountain West Conference was formed to re-create the "good ole days" of the WAC.  In order to compensate, the WAC took in additional members Nevada, Boise State, and Louisiana Tech. TCU left to join the (C-USA).

Membership now looked like:

Mountain West Conference (MWC): BYU, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego State, Air Force and UNLV.  This is the same as the original membership of the WAC, except UNLV replaced Fresno State, and UTEP and Hawaii didn't join.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC): UTEP, Hawaii, Fresno State, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, San Jose State, Nevada, Boise State, and Lousiana Tech.
Big 12: CU, Nebraska, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech.

In 2005, there was a mini-realignment, with Rice, SMU, and Tulsa leaving the WAC and joining the C-USA. Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State join the WAC.  Also in 2005, TCU left the C-USA to join the Mountain West, and UTEP left the WAC to join the C-USA. 

====================================
Phase IV - The Second Grand Realignment (2011-present)
In 2011, massive realignment occurred, resulting in the total implosion of the WAC, and a weakening of the Big 12 and MWC.  These are the changes that occurred.

Boise State left the WAC to join the MWC.
Nebraska left the Big 12 to join the Big 10, which now had 12 members.
Colorado left the Big 12 to join the Pac-12, leaving the Big 12 with only 10 members.
Texas A&M and Missouri then left the Big 12 to join the SEC.
TCU left the MWC to join the Big 12.
West Virginia left the Big East to join the Big 12.
BYU leaves the MWC to become independent.
San Diego State will be leaving the MWC in 2013 to join the Big East in football.
Utah left the MWC in 2011 to join the Pac-12.
Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State and Utah State are all leaving the WAC to join the MWC, for football.
Louisiana Tech is leaving the WAC for the Conference USA in 2013.
Houston and SMU are leaving the CUSA for the Big East in 2013.

Wait, it gets crazier:
Boise State, which just joined the MWC in 2011, will leave in 2013 to join the Big East in football.
UT-San Marcos and UT-Arlington, which is joining the WAC in 2012 for football, will leave in 2013 to join the Sun Belt conference.
UT-San Antonio, which is joining the WAC in 2012 for football, will leave in 2013 to join the Conference USA.
Idaho and New Mexico State, having no one left to play in the WAC, will become independent.

So here is how it looks now after 2013
Western Athletic Conference: None for football.
Mountain West Conference:  New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Utah State.
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia.

Conference-USA members from the original list: Rice, UTEP
Pac-12 members from the original list: Colorado, Utah
Big 10 members from the original list: Nebraska.
SEC members from the original list: Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri.
Big East members: Houston, SMU, San Diego State

I'm not really interested in the Conference-USA or Big East but both will be huge and liable to being split up in the future:
Conference-USA: UAB, UCF, Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Houston, Lousiana Tech, Marshall, Memphis, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, SMU, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA, Tulane, Tulsa (18 members, but Houston, Memphis, UCF and SMU will leave for the Big East in 2013, leaving 14).
Big East: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, USF, Syracuse, Temple, UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Boise State, San Diego State (14 members, but Syracuse and Pitt will leave in 2013 for the ACC, leaving 12.  Navy may join in 2015)

===================================
So, the SWC has become the Big 12, (minus Arkansas,Rice, SMU, Texas AM and Houston, plus Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and West Virginia), and the WAC has become the MWC (minus BYU, San Diego State, Utah and UTEP, plus UNLV, Nevada, Utah State, and San Jose State)

==================================
Update: More madness.
Rutgers will be leaving the Big East to join the Big Ten, effective in 2014.
Maryland will leave the ACC to join the Big Ten.

So, just looking at where teams are going, we can see a hierarchy as follows:
1.  PAC-12, Big Ten, SEC
2.  Big 12, ACC
3.  Big East, MWC
4.  C-USA 
5.  Sun Belt
6. WAC (now defunct)

A team will leave a lower ranked division for a higher one, but not vice versa.

===================================
Update 2/21/2013.  Yet more madness:

Boise State and San Diego State decide not to join the Big East and will be re-joining the MWC.
Houston and SMU are considering leaving the Big East to join the MWC.

Friday, August 24, 2012

A PhD is the pathway to poverty

http://dollarcollapse.com/welcome-to-the-third-world/welcome-to-the-third-world-part-8-a-phd-is-now-a-path-to-poverty/

"My friend is an adjunct. She has a PhD in anthropology and teaches at a university, where she is paid $2100 per course. If she taught five classes a year, a typical full-time faculty course load, she would make $10,500, well below the poverty line."

Parking in the sky

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19360613

If you live in a skyscraper, why wouldn't you want to take your Ferrari up the elevator with you?

Lance Armstrong smeared

Lance Armstrong, the greatest bicyclist ever, has had all of his titles stripped from him.  He was alleged to use steroids, but this was never proven, and he never failed a drug test.

If you are accused, you must be guilty, right?  The Anti-Doping Agency has disgraced itself.  This is what "justice" looks like in Obama's America.

"“There comes a point in every man’s life when he has to say, ‘Enough is enough.’ For me, that time is now,” Armstrong said.“I have been dealing with claims that I cheated and had an unfair advantage in winning my seven Tours since 1999. The toll this has taken on my family and my work for our foundation and on me leads me to where I am today—finished with this nonsense. Today I turn the page. I will no longer address this issue, regardless of the circumstances".
--http://www.thenation.com/blog/169541/lance-armstrong-will-be-stripped-all-his-titles-not-his-fans

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Severe recession coming

According to a new analysis by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the country will be plunged into a severe recession if Congress fails to act on the fiscal cliff, The Washington Post's Lori Montgomery reports. Per Montgomery: 

"The massive round of New Year’s belt-tightening ... would disrupt recent economic progress, push the unemployment rate back up to 9.1 percent by the end of 2013 and cause economic conditions “that will probably be considered a recession,” the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said."

Hmm, severe recession or hyperinflation.  Which one will I choose?  How about just get government out of the way, and let the free market take care of things?

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

The batman shooting conspiracy

Criticize the government, get put in a psych ward

http://www.eutimes.net/2012/08/us-veteran-put-in-psych-ward-for-1-month-over-facebook-posts/

Brandon J. Raub has been ordered to stay in a mental health institution for a month without charge – and contrary to the American constitution, his defense says. His supporters are concerned any American could end up in Raub’s shoes.
­US police detained Raub, 26, a Marine Corps veteran, on Thursday, without presenting any charges and even without reading to Raub his Miranda rights, and took him to John Randolph Medical Center, where he is currently being held involuntarily, his defense said in a press-release.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Apple Computer is the Messiah

Apple Computer is now worth $623 billion, and will soon be worth $1 trillion.  Everyone should put ALL there money into it!!! 

Saturday, August 18, 2012

North Korea has style

Friday, August 17, 2012

Berlin Airport Fail

"Now, though, it looks as though the opening of the new Berlin Brandenburg Airport Willy Brandt (BER) -- already thrice delayed -- will be pushed back yet again. Amann, who has plenty of experience constructing airports, is unable to say with certainty whether the airport will be ready for prime time in March. Sources close to the supervisory board say that he intends to ask for an additional month to evaluate the state of the airport's construction.
The delay is not without consequences. As long as no date has been fixed for the facility's opening, it is impossible to finalize financing efforts to cover the at least €1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) in cost overruns. And that means that the situation of the state airport operating company, which is already slowly running out of money, has become even more precarious.
...Furthermore, it is not even clear if the federal government is prepared to grant additional funding to the airport project. "Given the chaotic situation and jurisdictions, there can be no additional financial concessions granted to the new capital city airport … in the upcoming negotiations for the 2013 federal budget,"
--http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/new-berlin-airport-opening-delayed-again-amid-financing-chaos-a-850396.html

=========
Update 1/18/2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-23/how-berlin-s-futuristic-airport-became-a-6-billion-embarrassment
Now the airport might not open until 2018.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The prudent Greeks clean up after the profligate Germans

"German shipping experts say that two-thirds of the country’s marine fleet is in financial distress. If the crisis drags on much longer, the Greeks may leapfrog ahead to become world leaders in container shipping. The irony of prudent Greeks cleaning up after a reckless debt spree by the Germans is lost on nobody."
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9473476/World-shipping-crisis-threatens-German-dominance-as-Greeks-win-long-game.html

Monday, August 13, 2012

Recent shootings

Unfortunately, it seems that mass shootings have become more frequent.  These are events that have happened in the last month.
  1. Aug 15.  Security guard shot at Family Research Council in DC by homosexual activist.
  2. Aug. 13.  Gunman at Texas A&M shoots at least 3 people.  The extent of the injuries is unknown.  Hopefully no one was killed.
  3. August 12.  Near Boston, MA, 3 were killed and 7 others injured in unrelated incidents in Dorchester, Roslindale and Roxbury.
  4. August 9. Dothan, Alabama.  Massacre at a nightclub leaves 3 dead and 4 injured.  Suspect Ryan Clark Peterson arrested.
  5. August 6. Woman opens fire on a riverboat in Detroit, injuring at least 7 people. 
  6. August 5.  A white supremacist in Oak Creek, WI kills 6 people at a Sikh temple and wounds 4, and then shoots himself.
  7. July 20.  James Holmes opened fire in a crowded movie theater in Aurora, CO, killing 12 and wounding 58.
  8. July 17.  Toronto.  Two people were killed and 21 injured in a crowded Toronto street party.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Greece given permission to print its own euros

The Gyro is here!

"But the ECB has a public face, President Mario Draghi. He didn’t want history books pointing at him. So the ECB switched gears. It allowed Greece to sell worthless treasury bills with maturities of three and six months to its own bankrupt and bailed out banks. Under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), the banks would hand these T-bills to the Bank of Greece (central bank) as collateral in exchange for real euros, which the banks would then pass to the government. Thus, the Bank of Greece would fund the Greek government.
Precisely what is prohibited under the treaties that govern the ECB and the Eurosystem of central banks. But voila. Out-of-money Greece now prints its own euros! The ECB approved it. The ever so vigilant Bundesbank acquiesced. No one wanted to get blamed for Greece’s default."
 --http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/8/8/greece-prints-euros-to-stay-afloat-the-ecb-approves-the-bund.html

Problem solved!  Greece can print its own euros, in unlimited quantities from now into perpetuity.  At least that is the way they understand it.

The transaction seems a little complicated.  It looks like:

Beginning status:
Greek government (GG) can print T-bills, needs Gyros
Banks can print IOUs temporarily
NBG can print Gyros, needs T-bills.

 Transactions:
 GG (T-bills) <==>  Banks (IOUs)
NBG (gyros) <==> Banks (T-bills)
Banks (gyros) <==> GG (IOUs)

Ending status:
GG has gyros
NBG has T-bills
Banks have nothing, except a small transaction fee
Everybody is happy!

Dr. Doom predicts recession in 2013

Living up to his nickname of “Dr. Doom,” Roubini recently laid out a terrifying scenario that will spell financial disaster for those unprepared for an “economic train wreck” in 2013.
The “perfect storm” that Roubini predicts is a convergence of four events: [1] Emerging markets (especially China) are slowing down much faster than anyone expected; [2] the eurozone is a complete mess, with Spain, Italy, and Portugal all teetering on the verge of insolvency; [3] continued high unemployment; and [4] rising inflation, which continues to threaten to push the United States back into recession.
Roubini also adds another worry: [5] He expects a military conflict in Iran that will double oil prices “overnight,” adding to the financial misery felt by millions of Americans.
Unfortunately, the tricks the government used during the 2008 financial crisis won’t rescue the country this time

Read more: Economist Warns: Prepare for 2013 Global Meltdown

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Top 60 Cities in China

This is mostly arbitrary, but having skyscrapers helps, as does being a capital city or having a large population.  This is a much stricter definition of city, being limited to the urbanized area, not the whole municipal boundary, and not the metropolitan area.

1. Hong Kong
2. Beijing
3. Shanghai
4. Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province
5. Tianjing
6. Taipei, capital of Taiwan
7. Shenzhen
8. Chongqing
9. Wuhan, capital of Hubei province
10. Macau
11. Dalian, Liaoning province
12. Changsha, capital of Hunan province
13. Nanjing, capital of Jiangsu province
14. Changchun, capital of Jilin province
15. Jinan, capital of Shandong province
16. Qingdao, Shandong province
17. Xiamen, Fujian province
18. Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province
19. Nanchang, capital of Jiangxi province
20. Kaohsiung, Taiwan
21. Shenyang, capital of Liaoning province
22. Zhuhai (near Macau)
23. Nanning, capital of Guangxi Zhuang AR
24. Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei province
25. Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang province
26. Dongguan, near Guangzhou
27. Harbin, capital of Heilongjiang province
28. Zhengzhou, capital of Henan province
29. Haikou, capital of Hainan province
30. Wenzhou, Zhejiang province
31. Taichung, Taiwan
32. Wuxi, Jiangsu province
33. Changzhou, Jiangsu province
34. Kunming, capital of Yunnan province
35. Xian, capital of Shaanxi province
36. Suzhou, Jiangsu province (near Shanghai)
37. Fuzhou, capital of Fujian province
38. Hefei, capital of Anhui province
39. Hohhot, capital of Inner Mongolia
40. Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang Uyghur
41. Lhasa, capital of Tibet
42. Handan, Hebei province
43. Shantou, Guangdong province
44. Yinchuan, capital of Ningxia Hui AR
45. Ordos City, Inner Mongolia.  Famous for being empty
46. Taiyuan, capital of Shanxi province
47. Foshan, Guangdong province, near Guangzhou and part of the metro area.
48. Ningbo, seaport city in Zhejiang province
49. Guiyang, capital of Guizhou province
50. Huaxi, village in Jiangsu province, famous for having 15th tallest skyscraper in the world
51. Hefei, capital of Anhui province
52. Yantai, Shandong province, borders Qingdao
53. Lanzhou, capital of Gansu province
54. Weihai, Shandong province.  Former British colony.
55. Zibo, Shandong province.  Borders Jinan, the capital
56. Jiangyin, Jiangsu province.  Borders Huaxi.
57. Fangchenggang, Guangxi Zhuang.  Port city.
58. Xining, capital of Qinghai province
59. Xuzhou, Jiangsu province
60. Zhuzhou, Hunan province

Nightmare scenario in 2015

I don't think this is likely to happen (I think it much more likely that we enter a 30 year period of malaise, Japan-style), but it is possible, and a prudent person would want to hedge risks against it.

Events:
1. December 2012.  Congress freaks out about the "fiscal cliff", and repeals anything that would contribute to it.  Taxes are not increased and spending is not cut, indeed it is increased because of continuing high unemployment, increasing the annual deficits to $1.5 trillion/year. The debt ceiling is increased by $2.6 trillion to just under $19 trillion.

2.  April 2013.  After continually warning Greece that "this time we really mean it",  Europe finally refuses to give any more bailouts to Greece and Greece runs out of money.  They don't formally exit the Eurozone, but they do start using their own shadow currency informally known as the "Gyro", which are basically counterfeit Euros, backed only by the National Bank of Greece, but the Greeks assert that these are valid and implicitly backed by the other countries.  This starts a bank run all over Europe, which is backstopped by the ECB, requiring 600 billion euros in the form of interest-free loans, to stop the flow.  Greece is shunned as a pariah country.

3. August 2013.  Europeans continue to buy Swiss francs as a safe haven, and the SNB continues to increase its balance sheet at the rate of 50 billion euros/month.  The SNB now has over 1 trillion francs on its balance sheet, mostly in the form of euros.

4.  October 2013.  Spain has a fiscal crisis, and the ECB, not wanting a repeat of the Greek debacle, pumps $1.5 trillion euros into Spanish banks, which in turn, bailout the Spanish government.

5.  Summer 2014.  A butterfly in the middle of the Amazon in Brazil, flaps its wings, setting off a chain reaction.

6.  Despite all the money pumped into Spain, it runs out and it pulls a Greece and also starts printing counterfeit euros, known as "Spyros".  There are rumors that all the PIIGS will follow.  All the stable European countries exit the Eurozone, starting with Finland.  The euro collapses.

7.  The SNB, now holding over 1.5 trillion euros, abandons the euro peg.  The Swiss franc quickly increases in value compared to the euro, but it is still down over 30% in dollar terms.

8.  Investors realize that the franc is no longer a safe haven, and they abandon it, pouring money into the pound, yen and dollar.  The Japanese fight the increase in value by pulling a "Swissie", by issuing new yen and selling them for dollars.  The Brits follow suit, as do the Chinese, and all the other semi-stable countries in the world.

9.  September 2014.  All eyes focus on the US, the only safe haven left in the world.  Prudent investors should be buying gold, but shun it because it has been decreasing in value against the dollar.  A recession starts in the US, caused in part by the strong dollar, and global trade collapses.  Unemployment exceeds 10%.  The Treasury reaches its debt ceiling yet again.  Paul Krugman urges Congress to pass a huge stimulus package, which they do.  They authorize a $10 trillion "global stimulus package" authorizing the Treasury to purchase any kind of assets world-wide.  The Fed follows up with a companion $10 trillion quantitative easing package to soak up the new bonds the Treasury issues.  The financiers congratulate themselves that they have saved the planet yet again.  The national debt exceeds 200% of GDP.

10.  A flood of new dollars rushes around the globe looking for hot investments.  The stock market soars and the bond markets collapse and yields soar.  Unemployment however remains stubbornly high.

11. October 28, 2015.  The Japanese stock market crashes, follows by the UK and the NYSE.  Investors panic, and lose faith in the dollar.  Gold soars as do interest rates and inflation.

12.  December 31, 2015. Central banks worldwide lose any pretense to fiscal sanity and print electronic money like crazy to cover their bills.  Hyperinflation has arrived.

===========================
Update:  This is based on 3 psychological stereotypes.

First, the "problem child" (juvenile delinquent or drug addict).  [Greece and Spain].  How do you deal with someone (or a country) like this?  Do you enable them or do you confront them?  If you enable them, you hope that the situation gets better on its own, but what if it doesn't? If you show "tough love", what if they flip out?

I don't have the answer, but consider walking away, slowly.   Greece should be kicked out of the Eurozone, but with assistance. The same with Spain.

Second, the passive-aggressive "elder brother".  [Switzerland, Japan]. This is someone who pretends to help, but ultimately has his own agenda and will turn on you and who contributes to the problem.  Think of a check cashing place that will give you some quick cash, but then charge 200% interest.   To this person you should just say, no thanks.  They are not the source of the problem, but they do not help solve it either.

I don't know how you can turn a helping hand away, but be aware that it will ultimately disappear just when you need it most, so don't depend on it.  Europe needs to have a conversation with Switzerland about what their ultimate intention is.  They either need to join the Eurozone, or stop the currency manipulation.

Third, the "failed savior".  So you have the addicts and those who pretend to help but don't, and this condition spreads until there is only one person left.  (Obi Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope).  This person will always let you down, unless it is Jesus.  If the world ever gets in the situation where it is solely dependent on the US of A, we are doomed.

Deflation means higher risk of default

On July 18, I wrote that it was basically impossible for there to be a debt crisis so long as the dollar was stable against gold.  I've thought about it some more and I think this is incorrect.  A little bit of inflation, say 6% or less, is an escape valve against excessive debt, because it makes the debt worth a little less.  No inflation and increasing debt is a danger sign because there are increasing pressures and no escape valve.

Even though the debt is increasing a little bit less, it is still increasing more than GDP (unadjusted for inflation) is increasing.  A debt crisis can occur even if the dollar is stable against gold, and in fact is more likely to occur if it is stable against gold.  So I think we are still at risk.

My last prediction was 2029, and I will revert to that.  Here is the problem:  as long as the debt increases more than the GDP does, interest will also increase as a proportion of GDP, even at stable interest rates.  So even if the record-low interest rates can be sustained for an extended period of time, the interest as a proportion of GDP will continue to increase to the point where it is clearly unsustainable and hyperinflation/default must occur.

So the dollar strengthening against gold is dangerous. To counteract this, the Fed should engage in more QE, but purchase gold instead of more Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities.  This will provide a little healthy inflation (and making the debt problem less overwhelming) and make the dollar fundamentally stronger.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Top 13 Metropolitan Areas in China in 2020

  1. Beijing (28.7 million)
  2. Shandong (21.6)
  3. Shanghai (20.5)
  4. Shenzhen (14.2)
  5. Guangzhou (11.9)
  6. Chengdu (11.7)
  7. Shenyang (11.6)
  8. Chang-Zhu-Tan (Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan) (11.2)
  9. Zhengzhou (11.1)
  10. Chongqing (10.9)
  11. Xi'an (10.7)
  12. Wuhan (9.8)
  13. Hefei (9.6)
Source:  http://www.portugalglobal.pt/PT/PortugalNews/EdicaoAicepPortugalGlobal/Documents/China200712.pdf

The richest village in China - with its own skyscraper

The newly-opened skyscraper in Huaxi Village, Jiangsu province, dwarfs the surrounding buildings

Huaxi, Jiangsu province, only has 2000 people, but it has its own skyscraper 1076 ft (328 m) tall - taller than the Eiffel tower,  the Chrysler building in New York, or the Shard in London.

Itanium - Epic Fail

Itanium was a 64-bit chip designed by HP and Intel. at a cost of billions, that supported parallel processing.  Sales were supposed to reach $38 billion/year in sales in 2001.  Instead, only a few thousand servers were sold that year.

HP did manage to sell $4.4 billion of Itanium servers in 2008, but sales have declined ever since. HP is a true believer, having paid Intel nearly a billion dollars to keep making new versions.  The new Poulson version will be released this year, but it will probably be the end of the road.

The problem?  It is way too complex.  The x86-64 competing designs by AMD and Intel were a simple (at least in comparison) update of the venerable x86 architecture.

" From a technical perspective, Itanium was, and still is, a vast improvement over x86. How could it not be? It includes all the latest thinking about CPU architecture; it had the input of the best minds in the business; it had Intel's awesome financial and marketing resources behind it. Absolutely everything was new and improved. It was a technical tour de force. And yet what people wanted was a faster x86."
--http://www.eejournal.com/archives/articles/20110309-itanium/

The lesson?  Don't try to reinvent the wheel.  Instead, find something that works, and make incremental improvements.  If something isn't working - let it go.

The Ouya

The Ouya is an open-source video game console the size of a Rubik's cube, costing $99.  It would run Android as its operating system, but could easily be rooted to allow any other operating system.  It has 1 GB RAM and 8 Gb flash drive.  Although designed for video games, it could easily work just for websurfing, email, word processing and the like. 

The PC just officially died.

My idea for fixing Greece

Greece should introduce a new currency to be known as the "Gyro" (Greek Euro).  Any Euro notes with a serial number beginning with "Y" (the Euro country code for Greece), would be part of the currency.  In addition, the National Bank of Greece (NBG), would print its own currency, initially in denominations of 100 Gyros only.

To help maintain the value, the 100 Gyro notes would have an interest rate, say 12%.  After one year, they would be redeemable for new Gyro notes plus the interest.

There would be a planned devaluation, announced in advance, of 1% per month against the Euro, until the value is 50% of the Euro, at which time the policy would be reassessed.

The ticking timebomb that is Switzerland

"The reserve rose by another CHF 41.4Bn ($43Bn) in July. This follows big increases in May (CHF 59.1Bn) and June (CHF 68.4Bn).

I see the “Peg Policy” as economic warfare by the Swiss against its neighbors. The Swiss are winning this war for the time being, but they are suffering casualties in the process. To maintain the peg, the SNB must increase reserves of Euros. Reserves are now equal to 80% of GDP. Those reserves will rise to well above 100% of GDP before the end of the year.

Someone will put forth the argument that the SNB can continue this indefinitely. All they have to do is print more Francs to satisfy the demands of the market. That’s not correct.

At some point, the SNB will have to give this up. When they do, the Franc will appreciate to parity against the Euro. When that happens, the SNB will lose billions. I believe that the Swiss are already at substantial risk; to continue the peg puts the entire economy in jeopardy."
--http://brucekrasting.com/how-to-lose-friends-and-make-enemies/

Commentary:  There are only two ways out of this:  1) Switzerland joins the Eurozone.  2) Switzerland abandons the euro peg.  If #1 happens, Switzerland would join Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Finland in bailing out the PIIGS.  Somehow, I doubt that they love the Greeks that much that they would continue indefinitely to bail them out.  I could see Switzerland joining the "Northern Euro" someday, but they will not join the Eurozone as it is currently comprised.

That leaves #2.  Well, there is a third option.  If somehow the Eurozone were to stabilize, then the SNB could gradually reverse its holdings.  But that is not going to happen.  So the SNB will abandon the peg.  Since they must, it would be better to happen sooner than later.  But they haven't thought this through.

What will happen when they do abandon the peg and when will it happen?  They will lose hundreds of billions of francs/dollars, an enormous sum for such a little country, that will bankrupt the country.  On top of that, it will be the final straw that kills the euro, because they will need to dump hundreds of billions of euros suddenly.

When will this happen?  Not until there is no other alternative.  As a practical matter, I think there is a built-in cap.  Let's say that it is 1 trillion francs.  It's hard to see how the SNB could have greater foreign reserves than that.  So if the reserves are now at 400 billion, and increasing at the rate of 50 billion per month, the end will come on ... (drum roll) one year from now, about August 1, 2013.

I guess there is a 4th alternative.  That everybody stops using the Euro and uses the Franc instead.  This would work if the Franc were backed by gold.  But it isn't.  So back to number 2.

The eurozone will implode, probably about a year from now.  And the Swiss will cause it.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Ghost airports in Spain

The Ciudad Real airport cost more than 1 billion euros and is shutting down.  The Castellon airport cost 150 million euros but never opened. Huesca also has a ghost airport that is open but has no passengers.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

The Big Reset

According to economist Raoul Pal, the end is nigh:

"From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will user in the end.

You have to understand that a global banking collapse and massive defaults would bring about the biggest economic shock the world has ever seen.

There would be no trade finance, no shipping finance, no finance for farmers, no leasing, no bond market, no nothing ...

The markets are at the frankly terrifying point of realising that LTRO, EFSF, QE etc are not going to prevent this collapse.

The next phase as Spain and Italy go, will be to see nationalisation of banks and the assumption of the bank debts on Government balance sheets.

Then expect to be shut out of financial markets ....

All that is left is the Dollar and Gold.

As defaults in governments and banks come to fruition, we risk a closure of the stock markets entirely and a closure of the banking system as occurred in Argentina in 2001, Russia in 1998, Brazil in 1991...

We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.

Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty, etc.  Assume that no one and nothing is safe.

After that ... we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges."
--http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pal-the-end-game-2012-6

Comment:  This was published on June 1, 2012.  So the end, to give it an exact date, would be on 12/21/12.  I guess its nice to know that he thinks the US dollar will survive.

Kings Park

"Engineers and earth movers have now joined nature and vandals in the slow dismantling of the Kings Park Psychiatric Center, an all-but-abandoned city of the sick on the North Shore of Long Island, on thickly wooded bluffs above Long Island Sound.

Nearly all of what remains at the site is abandoned, including Building 93, a tower that looms over the grounds like a horror-movie hospital. Doors and windows are covered with plywood; weeds sag on brickwork. Graffiti defaces the ruins inside and out; thieves have stripped them for scrap metal, sawing off pipes and gutters and smashing electrical switches with rocks to pick out the copper like crab meat. There is a subculture of Kings Park infiltrators, carrying heavy tools and posting videos to YouTube. They seem to work as doggedly as the birds, squirrels and thick weeds that wrap themselves around metal stairwells and window grates.
--http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/opinion/sunday/erasing-the-past-at-the-ghost-hospital.html

Debt increases at a lower rate

I'm not saying everything is hunky-dory, but the debt has increased less than $100 billion/month for the 3rd straight month.

On 4/30/12, the debt was 15692
On 7/31/12, it was 15933

The increase during this 3 month period was 241 billion, or an average of about 80 billion per month.  It's a small victory but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

===================
Is it permanently sustainable at this rate?  I define "sustainable" as having a doubling time of more than 10 years (120 months).  The 120th root of 2 is 1.0057929411 or about 0.579%.  15692 x 0.579% = 90.86. 

So yes, the debt, or rather the rate of increase in the debt, is permanently sustainable at this rate.  We can point to May 1, 2012 as being the turning point. Hopefully, it continues.

Cat fight in the White House

As the person who controlled access to the first couple, Valerie Jarrett saw Oprah as a potential threat to her power. If Oprah went unchecked, she would bypass Valerie and go directly to the president and first lady. What good was it being the gatekeeper if you couldn’t lock the gate when you wanted? And so Valerie set about turning Michelle against Oprah. Oprah was too close to the president . . . Oprah was acting like she was the first lady . . . Oprah didn’t know her place . . . Oprah was a bad influence . . . Valerie advised Michelle to “distance herself” from Oprah and cut her out of the White House inner circle.
IT didn’t take much to convince Michelle. As Michelle knew only too well, her husband had a compelling need to win the approval of strong women like Oprah. He seemed to be in awe of the talk-show host, sometimes giving her advice priority over Michelle’s. For instance, Oprah thought that Obama was overexposing himself on television and told him to pull back. Though Michelle disagreed, Obama listened to Oprah and restricted his TV appearances. As far as Michelle was concerned, Oprah’s billions and her elite lifestyle disqualified her as an adviser to Barack, who had no truck with wealthy people, except as a source of campaign contributions, and was a redistributionist at heart.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/jealous_michelle_vs_oprah_wDXXjFfq75tZRro1jy1AtK#ixzz22hOKyJaq

God, how embarassing.  A bunch of ugly fat black chicks fighting to see who can become the president's "mother".  Please get him out of there.  I'd rather hear about the latest Paris Hilton/Nicole Richey/Lindsey Lohan/Britney Spears/Kim Kardashian bff saga anyday.

The Olympics are a failure

"UK policymakers scared so much folks before the Olympic that London is a deserted city: non-olympic tourists are away; londoners are gone! "
" The Olympics are an economic failure as London is totally empty:hotels, restaurants, streets. They scared all off with crowd excess warnings "
"By scaring every1 to stay out of London with warnings about too many people coming here it turns that London is totally empty, a zombie city "
"The West End - usually packed on any Saturday night - was an empty waste land last nite: barely a soul to be found in theaters, bars, etc "
"They scared away all non-olympic tourists that pack london all summer;they pushed most londoners to escape;they told 2 million to work @ home "
--http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2012/08/roubini-olympics-economic-failure.html

Ok, it's official. London will be a case study in how NOT to run the Olympics.  Not as bad as Athens, but still not good

Update:   http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/07-08-2012/121856-london_olympics-0/

Friday, August 3, 2012

The world turned upside down

Denmark has negative interest rates of -0.20%.  The Swiss 2 year bonds are now at -0.454%.  France is selling 3-month treasury notes at a rate of -0.005%.  Germany just sold 2 year bonds at -0.06%.  Belgium sold some 3-month notes at -0.016%.  The Netherlands and Finland have also issued bonds at negative rates.

Spain, Italy and Greece for some reason don't have this problem.

How is this possible?  Wouldn't it be smarter to just bury the cash in your backyard?  No.  Maybe if you were just talking about a few thousand dollars, but you can't do that with hundred of millions, which exist only in electronic form.  And banks have to invest the money.  The only alternative is to leave it on deposit with the Fed, which pays 0.25% interest, although that number will probably drop to zero soon.

What about buying gold?  Well, gold can go down as well as up.  Gold was almost $1900 about 6 months ago and now it is about $1600.  Although it seems hard to believe that gold will drop substantially, it is possible for gold to drop some more.  And banks are required to invest at a "risk-free" rate.

So what is the effect?  Deflation, obviously.  Downward pressure on all prices, including wages and real estate.  Moore's law contributes to this effect as computers keep getting cheaper and more powerful.  Since wages are "sticky" (most people won't agree to a cut in salary), it becomes necessary to lay more people off.  With deflation, your dollar is worth more tomorrow, so there is an incentive to save even if you don't get interest.  This savings also decreases the velocity of money.

What is the solution?  Hello, deflation is the solution, you should be asking what is the problem.  Deflation won't last forever, but it took Japan 16 years to get out of its deflationary trap.  Don't fight it.  The more the deflation ("ying"), the quicker we will get to the bottom and then the real recovery ("yang") can start.

========
Update:  A corollary to this is that in the upside-down world, banks are unnecessary, and actually become a drag on society.   "in a negative carry universe — one in which goods, collateral and assets are expected to permanently outnumber money in the future — bank profits can only be achieved through pariah practices rather than lending. Banks are ironically encouraged to destroy capacity, disincentivse investment, borrow money from the economy rather than lend it, and hoard wealth. All phenomenons we are currently seeing. All phenomenons which are economically destructive. One of the best illustrations of this topsy turvy world, meanwhile, is that corporate cash piles are rising,  with corporates not just weaning themselves off banks, but lending directly to the banking industry itself."
--http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/05/1071671/pariah-profits-in-an-age-of-negative-carry/

Please allow them to fail if they can't generate enough profits to survive.  We would all be better off.  But ... Central Bankers will do whatever it takes to support the banking lobby.  They are not looking out for the best interests of the country as a whole.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Who is Richard Koo?



Richard Koo is the most important economist of our time, the smartest guy in the room.

"He distinguishes between the “Yang” phase of the economy and the ”Yin” phase (the so-called “balance sheet recession”). In “Yang” times companies want to increase profit and people consume a big part of their pay rises. In the “balance sheet recession/Yin” phases economic actors want to reduce debt and costs. Many economic principles are only partially or not valid at all.  Their underlying assumptions, that firms want to maximize profit and that the propensity to consume is considerably higher than zero, are not valid."
--http://snbchf.com/balance-sheet-recession/

The Eurozone will split in two

Members, in order of joining the Northern Euro:  Finland, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Estonia, Slovakia.  Possibly Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and/or Hungary.

Remaining members of the Southern Euro: Italy, France, Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus.  Possibly Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Portugal and Greece.  Also possibly Hungary.

See: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/the-history-of-the-north-euro-neuro-introduction-a-retrospective-from-the-year-2030/

The end of 35mm

http://www.laweekly.com/2012-04-12/film-tv/35-mm-film-digital-Hollywood/

"There is a war raging in Hollywood: a war between formats. In one corner, standing with Nolan, are defenders of 35mm film. Elegant in its economy, for more than 100 years film has been the dominant medium with which movies are shot, edited and viewed.
In the other corner are backers of digital technology — a cheaper, faster, democratizing medium, a boon to both creator and distributor."

The aftermath of the Olympics

1972 - Munich.  This was the last of the "old-style" Olympics.  During the Munich massacre, 11 Israeli athletes and coaches were killed, as well as 1 police officer, and 5 of the 8 terrorists.  The total cost was $611 million.  FAIL!

1976 - Montreal.  The main stadium was not completed in time for the games and was never fully completed.  It cost $1.6 billion, which was not paid off until 2006,  and today sits empty. "Naiveté, poor planning and outright corruption plagued Montreal".  FAIL!

1980 - Moscow.  The games were boycotted by the US, and less than 100,000 visitors showed up.  The cost of $2 billions was paid for by the totalitarian state.  FAIL!

1984 - Los Angeles.  Very few new facilities were built and those which were were paid for by sponsors. The games made a $220 million profit, even though the Soviets boycotted it.  SUCCESS!

1988 - Seoul.  The games made a profit of $139 million (another source says $288 million); however, this did not include many infrastructure costs.  The Olympic apartments were sold at a profit as well.  SUCCESS!

1992 - Barcelona.  The total cost, mostly infrastructure, was over $11 billion, but the Olympics transformed the city and tourism boomed.  SUCCESS!

1996 - Atlanta.  It was criticized for being too commercialized and there was a bombing that killed 2 people.  Yet it was a catalyst for regenerating downtown Atlanta.  The Olympic village was turned into university dorms.  The city boomed, adding more than 2 million people over the next 10 years.  And the games broke even financially.  SUCCESS!

2000 - Sydney. The image of Australia was massively enhanced by the games, but the cost was enormous, and did not lead to economic redevelopment.  The stadium is used for football (soccer) and rugby.  MIXED

2004 - Athens.  An enormous amount of money was spent on infrastructure, over $10 billion, but 21 of the 22 special venues built sit unused, and a huge debt remains.  This contributed in at least small part to Greece's current woes. "Athens has become a manual on how not to stage the Olympics". EPIC FAIL!

2008 - Beijing.  The Chinese spent more than $40 billion on the games, but the games were a logistical success and the games are a source of great national pride.  Many of the specially built venues are underused or abandoned, and there is no long-term economic boost.  Verdict:  MIXED
See:  The Olympic Ruins of Beijing

2012 - London.  More than $14 billion were spent on the games.  There was a security debacle and seating scandal, and less tourists came than would have happened without the games.  FAIL!

The Bird's Nest is a white elephant

Beijing built the Bird's Nest for the 2008 Olympics.  It cost $480 million to build and $11 million to maintain each year.   No one has used it since.  Fail!

GDP now $15,596 billion

"Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.1 percent, or $117.6 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $15,595.9 billion."
--http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Top 25 Global Cities, version 20

Here is an updated list of the Top 25 Cities.  In general, the ranking is by nominal GDP in US dollars (not PPP), and the cities should all be prefixed with the word "Greater".  The main difference from the previous version is the inclusion of Chinese cities with surrounding areas.  Estimates for London, Washington and Philadelphia have been reduced.  Previous ranking in brackets.

1. Tokyo, Japan [1]
2. Shanghai/Suzhou/Nanjing, China [12]
3. New York, US [2]
4. Hong Kong/Guangzhou/Foshan/Shenzhen, China [28]
5. Los Angeles, US [3]
6. Beijing/Tianjin, China  [27]
7. Paris, France [5]
8. Seoul, South Korea [7]
9. Chicago, US [9]
10. London, UK [6]
11. Osaka/Kobe, Japan [4]
12. San Francisco/San Jose, US [10]
13. Rhine-Ruhr, Germany [11]
14. Nagoya/Chukyo, Japan [14]
15. Houston, US [15]
16. Boston, US [16]
17. Washington/Baltimore, US [8]
18. Dallas/Ft. Worth, US [17]
19. Randstad, Netherlands  [18]
20. Philadelphia, US [14]
21. Milan, Italy [19]
22. Sydney, Australia [20]
23. Toronto, Canada [21]
24. Melbourne, Australia [22]
25. Atlanta, US [23]

Honorable mention:  Sao Paulo, Singapore, Miami, Chongqing/Chengdu

How Romney punked Obama

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/

"And that’s how you play smashmouth politics son.  A mental castration of a sitting president.  And the Romney team just did it as good as I’ve EVER seen it done right there.  And the decision to make sure that polling data made its way back to Obama…that had to come from Mitt Romney himself.  And when he did that…he balled up his fist and smacked Obama right up in his face.  Right into that fake ass toothy fool grin of his.  He let him know this ain’t gonna be 2008.  This is gonna be a war.  Barack Obama…Valerie Jarrett…Plouffe…Axelrod…they all got their asses kicked on this one."