Friday, June 27, 2025

CBO's 2025 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61492

The main thing I care about is GDP projections, so what does this report say?  The numbers are in trillions.

Year	GDP
====	====
2025	30.4 
2026	31.6 
2027	32.8 
2028	34.1 
2029	35.4 
2030	36.7 
2031	38.2 
2032	39.6 
2033	41.2 
2034	42.7 
2035	44.4 
2036	46.0 
2037	47.7 
2038	49.5 
2039	51.3 
2040	53.2 
2041	55.2 
2042	57.2 
2043	59.2 
2044	61.3 
2045	63.5 
2046	65.7 
2047	68.0 
2048	70.4 
2049	72.9 
2050	75.4 
These are less positive than the numbers I previously forecast, but I think these are the ones to use, the next time I revise my doom and gloom report.

Oh, one more thing, the report distinguishes between scheduled and payable benefits (on page 5), with 2035 being the year that benefits can't be fully paid.  I assume that benefits will be paid as scheduled.  These are the years where there is a difference, through 2050.
Year	Sched	Payable
====	====	====
2035	6.0	4.7
2036	6.0	4.7
2037	6.0	4.7
2038	6.0	4.7
2039	6.0	4.6
2040	5.9	4.6
2041	5.9	4.6
2042	5.9	4.6
2043	5.9	4.6
2044	5.9	4.5
2045	5.9	4.5
2046	5.9	4.5
2047	5.9	4.5
2048	5.9	4.5
2049	5.9	4.5
2050	5.9	4.4

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