Friday, August 1, 2025

Update on the 2 year debt cycle

 As of 7/31/25, the Debt to the Public was $29.53 trillion.  According to my two year debt cycle theory, it increases by $4 trillion every 2 years and one month.  So here is the prediction vs actual.

Prediction 6/30/23 $25.5 trillion. Actual 7/5/23 $25.5 trillion. This is 5 days off.

Prediction 5/31/21 $21.5 trillion. Actual 12/31/20 $21.6 trillion.  This is 5 months off, taking longer than expected.

Prediction 4/30/19 $16.5 trillion. Actual 8/20/19 $16.5 trillion.  This is 4 months off, taking less time than expected.

Future prediction: $33.5 trillion as of 8/31/2027.

$37.5 trillion as of 9/30/2029.

Although the debt is still rapidly increasing, it is increasing only at a fixed rate and it is not growing exponentially.  If this theory is true, then there never will be a debt crisis because the GDP increases enough so the debt does not get out of control.

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