https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/french-investors-should-brace-further-tempests
Bayrou is reportedly going to submit his resignation to Macron early Tuesday, according to a government course. Macron has limited options to steer France out of this crisis, according to PoliticoEU. He is reportedly leaning toward appointing another prime minister — the fifth since January 2024 — but a new premier would face the same intractable parliament. So too would a technical government made up of civil servants. Another snap election looks unappetizing, though, as it could easily deliver another hung parliament. In an extreme scenario, Macron could even resign, but that’s highly unlikely given his past statements.
I don't really understand any of this. It doesn't stop me from having an opinion though! Macron should resign and call for elections, Marine Le Pen should become president, and France should leave the EU (Frexit) and Eurozone, default on all their debt and reintroduce the French franc. Then they could experiment with the Magical Money Tree, which they can't do while they are in the EU.
This is so interesting, because France is previewing that will happen in the United States, but they are 20 years further into collapse than we are.
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ChatGPT said:
You’re absolutely right that President Emmanuel Macron faces an unenviable predicament—and the recent political developments confirm just how precarious the situation has become.
Current snapshot (as of September 8, 2025)
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Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote, with 364 deputies voting against his budget and only 194 in support, forcing his resignation ReutersFinancial Times.
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This marks yet another unstable chapter—Bayrou is Macron’s third prime minister to fall in just over a year and his fifth PM since 2022 The GuardianWikipedia.
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France grapples with soaring public debt (around 114 % of GDP) and a lingering deficit far above EU thresholds ReutersFinancial Times.
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The political landscape remains deeply fragmented, with no clear majority and rising unrest, including planned strikes and protests Financial TimesThe Guardian.
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Financial markets are on edge: bond yields are spiking, investor confidence is shaky, and credit ratings hang in the balance Financial TimesReuters.
Within this context, Macron’s choices are limited—and none are ideal:
The Options on the Table
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Appoint a new Prime Minister (e.g., a centrist or a center-left figure such as Finance Minister Lombard or someone who can court Socialist support).
‣ May help push through fiscal measures—but success is far from guaranteed in this divided National Assembly zerohedge.comThe Guardian. -
Form a technical government of technocrats or civil servants.
‣ This could temporarily stabilize decision-making—but lacks political legitimacy and risks igniting public backlash zerohedge.com. -
Dissolve Parliament and call early legislative elections.
‣ Could reset the political equation—but polls show Macron’s Ensemble bloc is weak (~15 %), while the National Rally sits above ~32–33 % zerohedge.comReuters. The risk: a hung Parliament or even an RN-led government—potentially disastrous. -
Resign himself.
‣ Virtually off the table (Macron has stated he will not resign before his term ends in April 2027), though this option remains theoretically possible zerohedge.com.
If I were advising President Macron…
Given the gravity and complexity of the situation, my recommendation would be:
Appoint a new Prime Minister who is credible to both centrist and left-wing parties and bring the Socialist Party (PS) into a fragile but necessary coalition.
This option offers the best route to maintain state functionality, restore some investor confidence, and allow France to move forward—albeit imperfectly.
Why this might work:
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It avoids the chaos and unpredictability of snap elections, which could empower the National Rally or produce another hung Parliament—fueling even more instability.
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A technocratic government, while potentially efficient, would lack democratic legitimacy and could provoke further unrest from unions and voters.
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Even though the Socialist Party is not enthusiastic about austerity—or Macron’s economic agenda—forming a coalition could facilitate incremental compromise, enabling a smaller, more palatable version of fiscal reform to pass.
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Having a PM with cross-spectrum credibility might calm markets by offering a tangible path forward—even if minor—rather than kicking the can further down the road.
Key steps would include:
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Identify a PM candidate respected across the political divide (someone like Lombard or another moderate with statutory, technocratic—and perhaps Socialist—credibility).
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Negotiate a pragmatic budget path that trims spending enough to placate EU and investor concerns, but with adjustments to reduce social impact—e.g., preserving public holidays or cushioning the most vulnerable.
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Stagger reforms, starting with less controversial measures while building trust with partner parties and unions before tackling tougher austerity.
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Contain social unrest by announcing dialogue with unions and civic groups, even as fiscal discipline is emphasized.
This approach is far from a panacea—but amidst the current deep institutional gridlock, it offers a path that preserves democratic legitimacy, avoids empowering extremists, and keeps France operational while slowly addressing fiscal challenges.
In summary
As an advisor, I’d counsel Macron to appoint a broadly acceptable, moderate prime minister who can command a fragile coalition, preferably involving the Socialist Party. It’s the least destabilizing option, offering a chance to balance fiscal responsibility with political viability—while postponing, though not eliminating, the risk of future upheaval.
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