US Debt to reach almost 100% of GDP by 2028

Debt as a share of the United States economy is on track to blow through the previous World War II-era record within two decades and keep rising from there, the Congressional Budget Office said in its annual long-term budget report.  Generally assuming no change in current laws, growing budget deficits would push debt held by the public from the current level of 78 percent of the economy to almost 100 percent of gross domestic product by 2028, and to 152 percent of GDP by 2048, according to the agency.  http://www.rollcall.com/news/policy/cbo-us-debt-burden-set-to-break-record-in-early-2030s

So .. 152% of GDP by 2048.  Who cares?  It will never be paid back.  And there is no upper limit because the Fed can always electronically print more dollars.  The real questions are: 1) why do we have to pay taxes if the government doesn't need the money, and 2) at what point will the whole thing explode into hyperinflation?  If the hyperinflation won't happen in the next 10 years, then why worry about it?

Death Canary and speculations on another Great Recession

Here is a new website I came across called "DeathCanary.com", which is predicting massive deflation and another great recession.  It seems to be written by a former banks.  Quotes:

"We are still in deep Kondratieff winter cycles in the economic world, probably till 2022 and businesses are still adapting to expected deep winter action :  In the winter the errors and debts get cleaned out, so expect huge deflation, stock crashes , debt defaults and social welfare resets the coming years."

I tried to find some more good quotes, but the author is somewhat incoherent, but he does get the point across.  The theme is that deflation is coming, caused by the trade wars and caused by increasing interest rates and tightening by the fed.

My thought is that he could be correct.  We know how to create inflation, which is caused by deficits, both trade and government, and by cheap money.  Right now, the opposite is occurring.  Yes, the government deficit is increasing slightly, but not enough to offset the tightening effects.

It is obvious that real estate and the FANG stocks, especially Amazon, which hit an all-time high of 1715.97 on June 11.  Amazon could be a canary.

I like to try to find patterns, and I see several dates when the carnage could begin.  Either September 11, 2018 (17 years since Nine-Eleven) or October 24, 2019 (90 years since the 1929 crash began), or September 15, 2020 (12 years since Sept 14, 2008, when the 2008 crash began).

The future remains to be written

This was the propaganda video that Trump showed Kim Jung-Un. I like it. I watched the opening to "Die Another Day", with the dramatic opening scene showing hovercraft racing across the DMZ. This has the same vibe, except positive.

New Wave - the beginnings

New Wave was a genre of music that begin in the late '70s and continued throughout the '80s.  It is different from classic rock, disco, R and B, etc.  I am going to write a series on it about the most popular songs.

It is impossible to define exactly, but usually it has electronic sounds, a fast beat and catchy words, with a little angst, and likely to be heard in a club in the '80s.

What was the first New Wave song?

Devo came out with "Secret Agent Man" in 1974, but it is horrible and impossible to listen to.
Jocko Homo is likewise horrible.
"I can't get no Satisfaction" is a remake of The Who classic song, but it is still unwatchable.
"Whip It" was their break-out hit in 1980, which gave them a cult following.

The Knack came out with No. 1 hit, "My Sharona" in 1979, so I think this was the first popular New Wave song to hit the top 10.

But there are lots of other ones to look at.
Mink DeVille, "Cabretta" came out in 1979, but it sounds more R&B to me.
Dead Boys, "Sonic Reducer" (1977) is more punk rock..
The Runaways and Joan Jett ("I love Rock n Roll", "Crimson and Clover", "I Hate Myself for Loving You") are also more punk.
"Dancing Queen" by Abba, came out in 1977, but that is more disco.
The Ramones, I think, qualifies as New Wave, but I can't find any songs I am familiar with, other than "Do You Want To Dance", which is a rock version of a '50s song.
"Psycho Killer" by Talking Heads, came out in 1977, but I have never heard of it before.

Peter Gabriel wrote "Solsbury Hill" in 1977  but doesn't have enough of a beat, and it also could be considered R and B, so I am not sure it qualifies.

Elvis Costello, "Welcome to the Work Week" came out in 1977, but I haven't heard it before.
David Bowie - "Heroes" also is from 1977, but obscure.
Kraftwerk - Trans-Europe Express is from 1977, and is more electronic.
Iggy Pop - "Nightclubbing" is from 1977, but I think it is too obscure.
Blondie came out with "Denis" in 1978, but that sounds more like a '50s song.

So was there a popular New Wave song before My Sharona?

To be continued...

Update: What about The Cars, "Just What I Needed", which was released in 1978?  Is this the first popular New Wave song?

Debtwatch May 2018

On Apr 30, 2018, the debt held by the public was $1.534 x 10^13.

On May 31, 2018, the debt held by the public was $1.543 x 10^13, an increase of about $92 billion, and almost exactly where it was at the end of March.  Interest paid on the debt for April was $35 billion.  Also note that Intragovernmental Holdings was at $5.733 trillion on 4/30/18.  At some point, this will peak and come back down.

In the grand scheme of things, this is kind of boring.  At some point, we will see $100 billion increases every month, and the interest increase dramatically.  So we are still in kind of a calm period before the drama re-starts in the next couple of years.