I think there is some funky accounting going on at the Department of Education. This is DoD-type obfustication (spell-checker says that word should be obfuscation but I like my spelling).
The latest CBO Monthly Budget Review has this information about rising costs in the Department of Education: Outlays of the Department of Education rose by $41 billion (or 117 percent), driven largely by differences in the amounts the Administration recorded for the estimated costs of outstanding student loans. In September 2025, a reduction of $131 billion was recorded because of program modifications authorized in the 2025 reconciliation act that offset most of the department’s fiscal year 2025 spending. In 2026, the Administration recorded a net decrease in the estimated costs of outstanding loans, mostly stemming from updated assumptions about borrowers’ repayments. That reduction was significantly smaller than the one recorded in 2025, resulting in a year-over-year net increase in outlays. Partially offsetting that net increase for 2026, spending from the Education Stabilization Fund fell by $12 billion and outlays for other components of the department’s budget fell by a similar amount. My question: I don't understand this at all? I thought the monthly budget review was on the cash basis, so the outlays from Education would be disbursements on the loans to schools less payments from borrowers. And of course they measure the amount of student loans outstanding which is somewhere around $7 trillion, but that is an asset; and if they write off some loans that has no effect on cash. But this makes it sound like it is on the accrual basis, which is different from the way the rest of the federal budget is calculated. Can you explain what is going on here?
Your understanding is essentially correct: the federal budget is mostly on a cash basis, but federal loan programs are a major exception. Student loans use an accrual-like method required by the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990. Consequently, “outlays” in the Monthly Budget Review do not always mean cash paid outside the government. Congressional Budget Office
That exception explains the passage you quoted.
1. What gets counted as student-loan spending?
Instead of counting loan disbursements minus borrowers’ payments as budget outlays each year, the government records the estimated lifetime net cost of the loans, expressed in present-value dollars. That incorporates expected principal and interest collections, defaults, forgiveness, and other repayment provisions. Administrative expenses, such as servicing costs, are counted separately on a cash basis. Congressional Budget Office
Here is a simplified example, excluding administrative expenses:
| Event | Actual external cash movement | Effect on reported budget outlays |
|---|
| Government makes $100 billion of loans and estimates the present value of future collections at $80 billion | $100 billion paid out | $20 billion subsidy cost |
| Later, revised assumptions raise expected collections’ present value by $10 billion | No immediate external cash movement | Negative $10 billion adjustment |
| Alternatively, revised assumptions lower expected collections’ present value by $10 billion | No immediate external cash movement | Positive $10 billion adjustment |
Those later adjustments are called subsidy reestimates. Changes in loan terms can also produce adjustments to previously recorded costs. Congressional Budget Office
2. Where do the actual loan disbursements and repayments go?
The government maintains two distinct accounts:
- A budgetary program account, which records the estimated subsidy costs and subsequent adjustments.
- A nonbudgetary financing account, which records actual loan disbursements and borrowers’ repayments.
The financing account’s cash flows affect Treasury’s borrowing needs, but they are excluded from the reported budget deficit. The subsidy entries involve transfers between government accounts rather than payments to schools or borrowers. Congressional Budget Office
So your proposed calculation—cash disbursements less borrower payments—is meaningful as a measure of cash requirements, but it is not the measure used for student-loan outlays in the budget.
3. What does the CBO passage mean?
Reading the paragraph you supplied:
- 2025: Changes authorized by the reconciliation act reduced the estimated lifetime cost of existing loans by $131 billion. That was recorded as negative spending, substantially lowering Education’s reported outlays.
- 2026: Revised repayment assumptions also reduced estimated loan costs, but by a much smaller amount.
- Therefore, 2026 reported outlays increased compared with 2025 because the accounting credit was smaller—even though both years included reductions in estimated loan costs.
For illustration only, if other spending stayed at $150 billion, a negative $131 billion adjustment would leave $19 billion in reported outlays. A negative $60 billion adjustment the next year would leave $90 billion. Reported outlays would rise $71 billion without any increase in that other spending.
The actual passage also says ordinary spending declined in two categories, partially offsetting the increase caused by the loan accounting adjustments. The $41 billion increase therefore does not establish that Education paid out $41 billion more cash.
4. Your point about the asset and write-offs is right
Writing down a loan asset does not itself use cash. Under credit reform, however, a reduction in expected collections can increase the reported deficit immediately; the additional borrowing need emerges later as those expected payments fail to arrive. An actual write-off already anticipated in the estimates need not generate another expense. Congressional Budget Office
One numerical correction: outstanding federal student loans are about $1.7 trillion, rather than $7 trillion; the September 2026 Federal Student Aid update puts the federally managed portion above $1.64 trillion. Knowledge Center
You spotted a real accounting distinction: the reported federal deficit combines mostly cash-based spending with present-value accounting for credit programs. It is not a pure cash-flow statement.
What is the current balance of the outstanding federal student loans, and the amount they expect to collect if it is different, and how did that change from the previous year? Sorry for giving you the wrong number.
The latest published balance is more than $1.7 trillion. The latest financial-statement estimate of the government’s loan asset is about $1.29 trillion—but those figures have different dates and coverage.
There are two useful comparisons.
Latest outstanding balances, as of June 30, 2026
| Loan portfolio | June 2025 | June 2026 | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| All federal student loans, including some held by private lenders | $1.67 trillion | More than $1.7 trillion | Nearly 4% increase, according to FSA |
| Federally managed portfolio | About $1.58 trillion | More than $1.64 trillion | Roughly $60 billion increase, using rounded figures |
These are balances owed by borrowers, including accrued interest. The June 2026 figures were published September 22, 2026. Knowledge Center
Latest comparable financial-statement values
For the amount the government expects to recover, the closest published measure is “loans receivable, net.” The latest annual financial statements I found are for September 30, 2025:
| Education Department loan receivables, billions of dollars | Sept. 30, 2024 | Sept. 30, 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Principal owed | $1,445.5 | $1,473.7 | +$28.2 |
| Accrued interest owed | 128.5 | 161.9 | +33.4 |
| Gross amount owed | 1,574.0 | 1,635.6 | +$61.6 |
| Less: allowance for subsidy | (493.0) | (343.3) | Allowance decreased $149.6 |
| Net loan asset—present value of expected future net cash flows | $1,081.1 | $1,292.3 | +$211.2, or 19.5% |
These figures cover loans recorded as Education Department receivables, rather than the entire federal student-loan portfolio. ed.gov
The $1.29 trillion is not a prediction that borrowers will pay exactly $1.29 trillion in total. It discounts projected future cash flows into today’s dollars, including future interest collections and the effects of defaults, forgiveness, and repayment terms. Therefore, the $343 billion difference is not simply an estimate of unpaid principal or loans that will be forgiven. The financial statements do not give an equivalent undiscounted total of expected collections in that table. ed.gov
The striking change is that the amount owed rose about $62 billion, while the estimated net asset rose $211 billion. Much of that larger increase came from accounting changes: the 2025 reconciliation reports approximately $147 billion of loan modifications increasing net receivables, plus about $29 billion from net downward cost reestimates. New lending, payments, and other adjustments account for the rest. Those are broader annual financial-statement amounts, so they should not be equated directly with the specific $131 billion adjustment cited in your CBO passage. ed.gov
Thus, the latest data show both a growing outstanding balance and, in the latest annual valuation, a substantially higher estimated recovery value. I would not compare the June 2026 balance directly with the September 2025 net asset to calculate a current expected-loss percentage.
How did ending the SAVE plan effect this? Maybe it didn't change anything currently because it is still being implemented, but for next year, how much is the expected present value of the loans expected to be vs the expected present value if SAVE was not implemented? In other words, how much more money is ending the SAVE plan expected to bring in in FY 2027?
Ending SAVE increased the estimated value of future loan repayments, and that effect was already substantially recorded in FY 2025—even though borrowers’ transition to other plans came later. But I did not find an official estimate isolating additional cash collected in FY 2027 specifically because SAVE ended.
I’m interpreting your comparison as SAVE continuing versus SAVE being ended and replaced by the available repayment plans.
The closest official estimate I found is in the Education Department’s 2026 repayment regulations:
| Scope of estimate | Estimated reduction in lifetime costs, in present-value dollars |
|---|
| Repayment-plan changes affecting existing loans originated in 1994–2025 | $121.8 billion |
| Repayment-plan changes affecting future loans originated in 2026–2035 | $246.5 billion |
| Combined | $368.3 billion |
The comparison baseline included SAVE. However, these figures cover the broader repayment overhaul, including RAP, the new standard plan, and changes to other repayment plans. They do not isolate SAVE’s elimination. The future-loan estimate also incorporates interactions with loan limits. public-inspection.federalregister.gov
For your question about the existing loan asset, the most relevant number is therefore approximately $122 billion more in present-value recoveries from the repayment changes as a package—not $122 billion more collected during one year.
That helps explain the increase in the loan asset I described previously. The Department’s FY 2025 financial report identifies a $131.3 billion downward cost modification from the reconciliation law, covering repayment changes and changes to borrower-defense and closed-school discharge regulations. With an associated adjustment, it reports $147.9 billion in savings from that modification. So neither the $131 billion nor the $148 billion figure should be described as SAVE-only savings. ed.gov
Implementation does not have to finish before the present-value effect is recorded. Credit accounting recognizes changes to outstanding loans when the modifying legislation is enacted, based on projected future repayments. Consequently, FY 2027 collections can increase as borrowers resume payments, while the main lifetime accounting benefit has already appeared in FY 2025. Congressional Budget Office
There are also two different cash comparisons:
- Against SAVE operating normally: Extra collections would reflect higher payments under replacement plans and less eventual forgiveness.
- Against SAVE borrowers remaining in payment forbearance: Resuming payments produces additional cash even before considering differences between repayment formulas.
Those comparisons would produce different FY 2027 numbers.
The answer I can substantiate is about $122 billion in increased lifetime present value for existing loans from the broader repayment overhaul. I cannot substantiate a SAVE-only FY 2027 cash figure, or a pair of FY 2027 portfolio valuations “with SAVE” and “without SAVE,” from the official material I found. It would also be incorrect to add that $122 billion to the previously reported $1.29 trillion asset: that asset already reflects the enacted changes.