The Palantir Manifesto

 Source: https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2045574398573453312

I am not going to repost the whole thing, only the most surprising points.

6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost.

Alex Karp wants to bring back the draft, including for women.

7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way.

17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives.

I am combining these two points and reading between the lines, but I think Alex Karp wants to build Robocops.

How the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is causing the collapse of civilization

 

Source: https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-04-15-the-coming-collapse-you-arent-ready-for.html

The comforting theory of 'price discovery' and market adaptation is about to meet the immovable object of physical reality. Academic economists believe high prices will magically summon new supply. They are wrong. You cannot will a gasification plant, a sulfur recovery unit, or a nitrogen fertilizer factory into existence. These are monumental feats of engineering that take years, if not decades, to build.

As a simulation cited by Natural News warns, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks $1.2 trillion in annual exports and would cascade through global trade. The idea that we can simply 'source elsewhere' is a fantasy. The global logistics network is a just-in-time house of cards. When a single chokepoint for 'roughly one fifth of the world’s oil consumption and a similar share of global LNG trade' is blocked, the entire system seizes. We are facing years of profound disruption, not a temporary price spike. The infrastructure we rely on was built over a century; it cannot be replaced in a news cycle.

What is coming is a permanent state of breakdown. If you cannot make a car because you lack specialty polymers, lubricants, or microchips, then you cannot make a tractor, a truck, or a cargo ship. Global production doesn't slow down; it halts. This is the systematic deconstruction of the complex, interdependent machine. As James Howard Kunstler observes, we are in 'the vortex of the whirl,' where our foundational systems are failing. This isn't a recession; it is the unravelling of civilization itself. The intricate dance of global trade, which allows a store in Ohio to stock bananas from Ecuador and electronics from Taiwan, depends entirely on the uninterrupted flow of fossil fuel derivatives. Sever that flow, and the dance becomes a death spiral.

The Three Holy Wars

 Right now, there are 3 holy wars going on involving the Jewish Messiah, the return of Christ, and the return of the 12th Imam.

Read: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/04/12/the-war-over-three-messiahs/

https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-holy-war-that-nobody-dares-to

Jewish messianic Zionism awaits the Mashiach – the final king from the line of David – who will rebuild the Temple, establish the Kingdom of God and rule from Jerusalem. The redemptive movements (the Temple Institute, the followers of Ben Gvir, the Smotrich faction) believe that the world must reach the brink of a great war so that “the Messiah may descend and save it” . For this reason, they encourage the continuation and expansion of the conflict.

Christian dispensationalism awaits the return of Christ, which will be preceded by the rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem and a period of “great tribulation”. In this scheme, the Jews play an instrumental role: they must return to Israel, rebuild the Temple and then, upon Christ’s return, convert to Christianity or perish. Christian Zionists are not friends of the Jews in the true sense: they treat the Jewish people as pawns in a cosmic drama culminating in their own redemption.

Twelver Shi’ism awaits the return of the Twelfth Imam/Mahdi, who will emerge from occultation when the world is rife with injustice and oppression, to establish universal justice. The destruction of Israel and the defeat of Western powers are theological prerequisites for his return. In the Shia tradition, Jesus (Isa) will return and pray behind the Mahdi – submitting to his leadership – and together they will defeat the Dajjal (the Antichrist). For many Muslims, the figure awaited as the Jewish Messiah – who brings worldly power – is in fact the Dajjal himself.

The three eschatologies converge on a single geographical point: Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, the Esplanade of the Mosques. All three require an apocalyptic conflict as a precondition for the fulfilment of the divine promise. All three view the present as the time of fulfilment.

The original article, written in Italian, is here: https://www.antimafiaduemila.com/home/primo-piano/108453-la-guerra-santa-che-nessuno-chiama-per-nome.html

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?

 A journalist named John Carreyrou makes a very strong case that Adam Back, a British computer scientist, is Satoshi Makamoto.

Read: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-identity-adam-back.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZVA.I_-c.fOHxhtGe64er&smid=url-share

Trump requests $1.5 trillion for Department of War in FY 2027

Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/budget_fy2027.pdf

I can't copy and paste from the document and I don't want to retype it.  On page 59 it says they are requesting $1.5 trillion, which is a $441 billion increase from FY 2026.  But then it says "base discretionary budget authority" is $1.1 trillion, and $350 billion in additional resources for "increasing access to critical munitions and further expansion of the defense industrial base".

On page 83, it says the FY 2026 enacted amount was $1,009 billion with an increase of $440.9 billion to $1,450 billion.

There was already $155 billion allocated in FY 2026 for Working Families Tax Cut Act Funding.  This amount will be cut to zero and then the new resources will be $350 billion.  So the next increase will "only" be $195 billion.

Where did the WFTCA money in 2026?  Supposedly for tax cuts to middle-class people.  And now that will be taken away.  So effectively raising taxes on the middle class to pay for the new funding.

Financial Repression

 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P0g3ETHPg0

This easy to understand video explains how the government can slowly get out of debt, that is, reduce the debt to GDP ratio.  Just pay interest at a lower rate than inflation.  They did it after WW2.  Easy.  It's called inflating away the value of the debt through financial repression.

The only problem is the people who are relying on their savings in the bank and on interest on bonds who will get hurt.  But everyone else benefits from this strategy.

What are the odds of Alberta secession?

 What are the odds that voters in Alberta, Canada will vote for seccession and that Alberta will actually secede and become an independent country?

ChatGPT: Short answer: low—but not zero.
There are really two separate probabilities to think about:

1. Will Albertans vote for secession?
2. If they did, would Alberta actually become independent?

---

1) Odds of a pro-secession vote

Recent polling is pretty consistent:

• Roughly 20%–30% support independence
• Roughly 60%–70% oppose it
• One recent 2026 poll found only 26% support

Even when you exclude undecided voters, support still does not reach a majority.

What that means in practical terms

• A referendum today would almost certainly fail
• Support would need to jump 20–25 percentage points to win

That’s a massive swing. For context, even at the height of Quebec separatism (1995), it barely reached ~50%.

👉 Rough probability (near term):

• Passing a referendum: ~5–15%

---

2) Odds Alberta actually secedes (even if it votes yes)

This is where the probability drops dramatically.

Under Canadian law (especially the Clarity Act and Supreme Court rulings):

• A referendum does not automatically trigger independence
• It triggers negotiations with the federal government
• Those negotiations would involve:
  • Parliament
  • Other provinces
  • Indigenous treaty rights (a huge factor)
  • Borders, debt, currency, military, trade, etc.

There are also major structural barriers:

🚧 Legal obstacles

• Secession would require constitutional changes
• That likely needs approval from multiple provinces

🧭 Indigenous treaties

• Large parts of Alberta are covered by treaties with First Nations
• Those agreements are with the Canadian Crown, not Alberta
• Many Indigenous leaders oppose separation

💰 Economic realities

• Alberta is landlocked → depends on Canada/U.S. for trade routes
• Currency, banking system, and debt division are unresolved
• Businesses hate uncertainty → capital flight risk

🏛️ Political reality

• No major governing party is campaigning on full independence
• Even conservative leaders generally support more autonomy, not secession

👉 Rough probability (even after a “Yes” vote):

• Successfully becoming independent: ~1–5%

---

3) Combined probability (realistically)

If you combine both steps:

• Chance of referendum passing: low
• Chance of successful secession afterward: very low

👉 Overall probability Alberta becomes an independent country (near-term):
Probably well under 5%

---

4) When could the odds increase?

This would only become plausible if multiple things changed at once:

• Support rises to ~50%+ consistently
• A major political party adopts independence officially
• A severe federal-provincial crisis (economic or constitutional)
• Clear plan for Indigenous consent and economic transition

Right now, none of those conditions are met.

---

Bottom line

• Independence is a minority position today
• A referendum could happen, but would likely fail
• Actual secession is extremely unlikely, even if a vote passed

Falken ZIEX ZE950

 I have heard really good things about this tire, available for purchase from Tires-Easy.  The only negative is the UTQG is only 500AA and it only has a 45,000 mile warranty.  But I would rather buy a good, cheap tire with a shorter life.  After spending so much time before reviewing tires, I find it fun to buy tires.

The video is 11 years old and the quality isn't the best, but it has an authentic feel to it.  Check out Falken, it's a good brand.

Financial Report of the United States Government for FY 2025

 See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2025/FY-2025-Financial-Report-3-19-2025(Final).pdf  Note: The date in the title of the PDF says 2025, but internally this document is dated March 19, 2026.  

The most interesting thing about it, I think is the "Federal Employee and Veterans Benefits Payable" of $15.5 trillion as of 9/30/25, up from $15 trillion the previous year.  Should this be included in the national debt?

The biggest part of this is the Veterans Compensation and Burial Benefits of $7.3 trillion.   I think the amount paid each year (maybe $300 billion) is treated as a cash expense under the Veterans Administration, and the payable amount is the projected payments over the next 40 or so years.

Is a crash underway?

 Now the price of silver and gold is dropping like a rock.  Is a crash underway?

Well, the war has disrupted the Straight of Hormuz, and oil shipments have plummeted.  Oil is skyrocketing, as well as Liquid Natural Gas.  Iran has hit oil refineries in Haifa, Israel, and in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Dubai and UAE.  We now have 4 aircraft carriers in the area, plus France sending the Charles DeGaulle aircraft crrier group.

If the war doesn't end soon, it looks like a worldwide recession.  A very large aluminum plant had shut down for lack of fuel.  Several massive LNG and oil contracts have not been delivered on.

Dollar down, stocks down, bonds down, gold down, silver down. The only thing up is oild and LNG.  In my opinion, we are looking for a monetary event to take place soon. The Petrodollar is going away. I think a reset of the financial system is coming, estimates of 10 times worse than 2008.  Probably going to a digital dollar.  Speculation. But realistic speculation. Silver may go back go to $60. I never throught it would go down like this.  Right now back up to $70.

It looks like a major recession is coming later this year, plus a massive drought in the west. The real estate market may crash like 2009.

The failure to deliver is called Force Majuere. Very serious breach of contract. Also an investment company called Jane Street has like 20 million shares of paper silver, and they manipulate the price of silver up and down.

Business real estate is in a freefall. Massive skyscrapers sitting empty. The housing market is in a huge bubble, as well as tech stocks, AI stocks, and private credit. Massive defaults going on right now in private credit.  The Federal government is propping up the AI in my opinion.

When the everything bubble pops, it will be spectacularly bad.  Add in Ukraine war, and NATO falling apart. Another thing to consider - what do Venezuela, Cuba and Iran have in common?  I believe that their central banks are not closely associated with the Rothschild family.  From a conspiracy theory consideration, all these countries need to fall to implement worldwide finance systems.

National Debt hits $39 trillion

 On 3/17/26, St Patrick's Day, the National Debt officially hit $39,016,762,910,245.14. This is only 5 months after it first hit $38 trillion (on 10/22/25).  And only 7 months after it first hit $37 trillion (on 8/13/25).  

When did it first reach $19.5 trillion? On 8/31/16, just a tad under 10 years ago.  So we can expect it to hit $78 trillion in 2036 in 10 years from now.

Supposedly, the debt is only increasing at $1.9 trillion per year but it seems like this is increasing faster than that.  Expect it to hit the $40 trillion mark on 9/30/26 at the end of this fiscal year.

Water is not H2O

 read this https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/is-water-really-h2o-intriguing-arguments

This is the craziest thing I have ever heard, next to the flat earth theory.  Quick summary:

No “New” Water Creation: no one has ever demonstrated the production of “new” liquid water solely from the reaction of hydrogen and oxygen gases. In demonstrations involving combustion, the appearance of water is merely assumed to be a result of the reaction, rather than proven.

Failure to “Split” Water Alone: Conversely, water cannot be split into hydrogen and oxygen without the presence of an electrolyte (like salt or acid). He suggests that the gases produced in these experiments actually originate from the electrolyte or the electrodes themselves, not the water.

Revised Q4 2025 GDP is $31.44 trillion

The headline reads: "US Q4 GDP Growth Cut In Half To Just 0.7% After Revision".  "The BEA reported that Q4 GDP in the US was slashed by half after the 1st revision of data: instead of 1.4%, the US grew just 0.7% in the last quarter of 2025 (0.660% to be precise), and far below estimates of a 1.4% print. It was also the lowest GDP print since Q1 2025. "

This all seems very confusing to me and I like to think of myself as an amateur economist.  Is the 1.4%, now 0.7%, an increase in real GPD over the quarter, or is it current GDP, or is it annualized?  Is this a minor adjustment or is it big?  And how do they calculate "real" GDP vs "nominal" GDP?

I like to look at the actual numbers, which the BEA hides pretty well.  Look at Related Materials, Tables Only, Table 3, and then Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q4 2025 and there it is: 31,442.5.  This is only $48 billion less than the previous estimate and so it is no big deal - it is just basically a rounding error.  This is not even worth recalculating the debt to GDP ratio.

Updated March 2026 Forecast

 My last forecast was so bad I have to redo this, but I will leave the prior one posted for comparison.  Here is an updated forecast, which mostly comes from https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62044

			Outl	Prim		Total	Debt 	Debt
Year	GDP	Rev	X Int	Defi	Int	Defi	Public	% of GDP
2026	32.3	5.7	6.5	-0.8	1.1	-1.9	32.2	99.7%
2027	33.7	5.9	6.7	-0.8	1.1	-1.9	34.1	101.2%
2028	35.0	6.1	6.9	-0.8	1.2	-2.0	36.1	103.1%
2029	36.4	6.4	7.2	-0.8	1.3	-2.1	38.2	104.9%
2030	37.7	6.6	7.4	-0.8	1.4	-2.2	40.4	107.2%
2031	39.2	6.9	7.7	-0.8	1.6	-2.4	42.8	109.2%
2032	40.7	7.2	8.0	-0.8	1.7	-2.5	45.3	111.3%
2033	42.2	7.5	8.3	-0.8	1.8	-2.6	47.9	113.5%
2034	43.8	7.7	8.7	-1.0	1.9	-2.9	50.8	116.0%
2035	45.4	8.0	9.0	-1.0	2.0	-3.0	53.8	118.5%
2036	47.1	8.4	9.3	-0.9	2.2	-3.1	56.9	120.8%
2037	48.9	8.7	9.7	-1.0	2.3	-3.3	60.2	123.1%
2038	50.8	9.1	10.1	-1.0	2.4	-3.4	63.6	125.2%
2039	52.7	9.5	10.5	-1.0	2.6	-3.6	67.2	127.5%
2040	54.7	9.8	10.9	-1.1	2.7	-3.8	71.0	129.8%
2041	56.7	10.2	11.3	-1.1	2.9	-4.0	75.0	132.3%
2042	58.9	10.7	11.8	-1.1	3.1	-4.2	79.2	134.5%
2043	61.1	11.1	12.3	-1.2	3.3	-4.5	83.7	137.0%
2044	63.3	11.5	12.8	-1.3	3.4	-4.7	88.4	139.7%
2045	65.7	12.0	13.3	-1.3	3.6	-4.9	93.3	142.0%
2046	68.1	12.5	13.9	-1.4	3.9	-5.3	98.6	144.8%
2047	70.5	13.0	14.4	-1.4	4.1	-5.5	104.1	147.7%
2048	73.1	13.5	15.0	-1.5	4.3	-5.8	109.9	150.3%
2049	75.7	14.0	15.5	-1.5	4.6	-6.1	116.0	153.2%
2050	78.4	14.5	16.2	-1.7	4.8	-6.5	122.5	156.2%
2051	81.2	15.1	16.8	-1.7	5.1	-6.8	129.3	159.2%

The breaking point at 150% of GDP happens here in 2048.  Compare this to my June 2025 forecast which shows this 150% mark in 2045.

Legal Brief by OpenAI in support of Anthropic

 See: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72379655/24/1/anthropic-pbc-v-us-department-of-war/

The legal vacuum in which these contractual terms exist makes them only more important. The United States currently has no comprehensive federal law governing the use of AI by military or intelligence agencies in domestic contexts. There is no statutory framework requiring transparency, judicial oversight, or meaningful accountability for AI-driven surveillance at scale. There is no enforceable legal standard governing when an autonomous weapons system may select and engage a target. In the absence of public law, the contractual and technological requirements that AI developers impose on the use of their systems represent a vital safeguard against their catastrophic misuse.

That is the key point they are making.  Because there are no laws governing AI, then the guardrails that AI develops impose are necessary to prevent their misuse.

The solution to this conundrum is to create such a legal framework governing the use of AI, not to have AI developers arbitrarily impose their own views.

Deficit of $308 Billion in February 2026

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $308 billion in February 2026. The federal budget deficit totaled $1.0 trillion in the first five months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $142 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues rose by $206 billion (or 11 percent), and outlays were $64 billion (or 2 percent) higher. Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $31 billion (or 8 percent) [to $433 billion FYTD] because the debt was larger than it was in the first five months of fiscal year 2025 and because of higher long-term interest rates.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-03/61978-MBR.pdf

March 2026 Forecast

 

		Tax	Spend	Spend	Tot Sp	Primary		Total	Debt to	Debt %
Year	GDP	Rev	Other	SS	x Int	Deficit	Int	Deficit	Public	GDP
2025	30.7	5.2	4.4	1.6	6.0	0.8	1.0	1.8	30.3	98.7%
2026	32.3	5.6	4.7	1.7	6.4	0.8	1.2	2.1	32.4	100.2%
2027	33.7	5.9	4.8	1.8	6.6	0.7	1.3	2.0	34.4	102.0%
2028	35.0	6.1	5.0	1.9	6.9	0.8	1.4	2.2	36.6	104.6%
2029	36.4	6.3	5.1	2.0	7.1	0.8	1.5	2.3	38.9	106.8%
2030	37.7	6.6	5.3	2.1	7.4	0.8	1.6	2.4	41.2	109.3%
2031	39.2	6.9	5.4	2.2	7.6	0.7	1.6	2.3	43.6	111.2%
2032	40.7	7.1	5.6	2.3	7.9	0.8	1.7	2.5	46.1	113.3%
2033	42.2	7.4	6.0	2.4	8.4	1.0	1.8	2.8	49.0	116.0%
2034	43.8	7.7	6.1	2.5	8.6	0.9	2.0	2.9	51.8	118.3%
2035	45.4	8.0	6.2	2.6	8.8	0.8	2.1	2.9	54.7	120.5%
2036	47.1	8.3	6.6	2.7	9.3	1.0	2.2	3.2	57.9	122.9%
2037	48.9	8.6	7.0	2.9	9.9	1.3	2.3	3.6	61.5	125.8%
2038	50.8	8.9	7.6	3.0	10.6	1.7	2.5	4.2	65.7	129.4%
2039	52.7	9.3	8.2	3.1	11.3	2.0	2.6	4.7	70.4	133.6%
2040	54.7	9.7	8.9	3.2	12.1	2.4	2.8	5.2	75.6	138.3%
2041	56.7	10.1	9.7	3.3	13.0	2.9	3.0	6.0	81.6	143.9%
2042	58.9	10.5	10.4	3.5	13.9	3.4	3.3	6.6	88.2	149.8%
2043	61.1	10.9	11.3	3.6	14.9	4.0	3.5	7.5	95.8	156.7%
2044	63.3	11.3	12.2	3.7	15.9	4.6	3.8	8.5	104.2	164.6%
2045	65.7	11.8	13.2	3.9	17.1	5.3	4.2	9.4	113.6	173.0%
2046	68.1	12.3	14.2	4.0	18.2	5.9	4.5	10.4	124.1	182.2%
2047	70.5	12.8	15.4	4.2	19.6	6.8	5.0	11.7	135.8	192.6%
2048	73.1	13.3	16.6	4.3	20.9	7.6	5.4	13.0	148.9	203.6%
2049	75.7	13.8	17.9	4.5	22.4	8.6	6.0	14.5	163.4	215.8%
2050	78.4	14.4	19.3	4.6	23.9	9.5	6.5	16.1	179.5	228.9%
2051	81.2	15.0	20.7	4.8	25.5	10.5	7.2	17.7	197.1	242.8%

This is my latest forecast.  It shows the 150% of GDP mark being reached in 2043, which is 2 years earlier than the last time I did this forecast in June 2025.  The 110% mark, which I now think is important, will be reached in 2031.

The numbers seem a little high after about 2040 so I will need to double-check my math.  But you can see that once things start to really fall apart that the collapse accelerates. Interest compounds on itself and the growth in spending continues to outpace the growth of revenues.

Everyone seems to just assume that the situation will magically fix itself before it gets that bad.  But the entitlement spending will continue to rapidly increase, and the so-called discretionary spending, which includes military, is increasing faster than revenue as well. 

So here it is, maybe flawed, but I am sticking with it until I can look at it some more.

One of my sources is the latest CBO projection, here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105

I should run this through ChatGPT and see what it comes up with.

FEMA Regions

 

Since I am interested in regional maps, here is the map of FEMA regions and the headquarters of each:

1 - Boston

2 - New York

3 - Philadelphia

4 - Atlanta

5 - Chicago

6 - Denton, TX (near Dallas/Ft Worth)

7 - Kansas City

8 - Denver

9 - Oakland

10 - Bothell, WA (near Seattle)

Proposed Map

 I got this from Instagram somewhere and took a screenshot.  This supposedly came from a PowerPoint presentation. 

But it is an interesting idea - what if the US were split into 7 different countries (9 if you make Alaska and Hawaii each independent)?  What would these countries be called and what would be the capital of each?

1. Atlantica - Albany, NY

2. Southeast Confederacy - Columbia, SC (or Raleigh, NC)

3. Midwest Federation - Springfield, IL (or Indianapolis, IN)

4. Cajun Wastelands (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama) - Baton Rouge, LA. 

5. New Republic of Texas -  Lubbock, TX

6. Sequoyah (Native American Governed State) - Billings, Montana

7. Cascadia - Carson City, NV

Will the military spend $1.5 Trillion in FY 2027?

 This came out in January but I didn't notice, and I think it is newsworthy.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday suggested that his administration will request $1.5 trillion in military spending for fiscal 2027. That request would be a record high by far, exceeding recent annual defense budgets by hundreds of billions of dollars. “After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.   https://defensescoop.com/2026/01/07/trump-calls-for-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-2027/

Here is an Op-Ed by Mike Pence, former VP:  While America remains the leader of the free world and the arsenal of democracy, the international framework of free nations built after World War II is under its greatest strain in generations. Russia is waging a brutal war of conquest in Europe, shattering borders by force and daring the West to respond. China is intensifying its military pressure on Taiwan, conducting large-scale exercises that simulate encirclement and invasion. Iran, weakened but still deadly like a wounded predator, is threatening to exact revenge on America and Israel. The United States must meet these challenges with strength and resolve. President Donald Trump’s proposal to raise America’s defense budget to $1.5 trillion is an absolute necessity in a world that has grown more violent and more dangerous in recent years. At a moment when authoritarian regimes are probing for weakness, the United States must ensure that its armed forces remain unquestionably capable of deterring aggression — and, if deterrence fails, of winning decisively.  Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/opinion/2026-02-01/america-needs-trump-defense-budget-20595728.html

The president recently announced his desire for a $1.5 trillion defense budget in fiscal year 2027, which would represent a substantial increase of $600 billion over current figures. As large a sum as that is, it is money the department could realistically use to address shortfalls in modernization and readiness. See also https://www.aei.org/op-eds/to-finance-the-1-5t-defense-budget-push-for-600b-in-reconciliation/

Meanwhile, it looks like a full-blown war has just started with Iran.  So Trump, the supposed peace-lover, may get his wish.   And of course a $600 billion increase in spending will blow up projections of future spending, so there is no point in projecting anything until we figure out if this is actually happening.