The 18 year cycle dates back to 1836. The formula is seven years of slow steady growth, a short recession, seven years of rapid growth, then a four year crash.
Real estate prices peaked in June 2022, so the 4 year crash should be over now. However, an economist noted that the drop in prices has been slower than typical and came up with a new date for the housing bottom: February 2027.
However, if the last bottom was in 2012, and if the peak is really in December 2026, (because median prices have increased slightly since a year ago), then the next bottom won't happen until about February 2030.
My target macros are 100g of protein, 110g of fat, and 25g of protein totaling 1490 calories, and this hits it almost exactly. I previously told ChatGPT that I bought a pack of mozzarella cheese sticks and each one is 80 calories, with 6g of protein, 6g of fat, and 1g of carbs. The baked beans are Bush's Best zero sugar added, and each 4-ounce (130g) serving has 120 calories, with 7g protein, 1g fat and 26g carbs with 12g of those from fiber.
Can you calculate the nutrition for a day of eating 12 mozzarella cheese sticks, 3 boiled eggs, and 130g of baked beans, with 1 ounce of butter?
Sure. Using your mozzarella and bean numbers, and standard values for 3 large boiled eggs and 1 oz (2 tbsp) butter, here's the approximate day.
Food
Calories
Protein
Fat
Total carbs
Fiber
Net carbs
12 mozzarella sticks
960
72 g
72 g
12 g
0
12 g
3 large boiled eggs
~234
~19 g
~16 g
~2 g
0
~2 g
130 g baked beans
120
7 g
1 g
26 g
12 g
14 g
1 oz butter
~204
~0 g
~23 g
~0 g
0
0 g
TOTAL
~1,518
~98 g
~112 g
~40 g
12 g
~28 g
Your target
1,490
100 g
110 g
—
—
25 g
That's almost comically close to your targets:
Calories: 1,518 vs. 1,490 → +28
Protein: 98 g vs. 100 g → −2 g
Fat: 112 g vs. 110 g → +2 g
Net carbs: ~28 g vs. 25 g → +3 g
Given normal label rounding and variation in egg size, that's effectively a bullseye.
Nutritionally, the eggs are a meaningful improvement
I actually like the eggs considerably more than simply eating additional cheese. They diversify your protein and provide nutrients that the cheese/bean combination doesn't provide as well—particularly choline, along with B12, selenium, vitamin A and some vitamin D.
The beans contribute the 12 g fiber, along with folate, potassium, magnesium, iron and other nutrients that you'd essentially miss on cheese + eggs alone.
Butter is the least nutritionally important part. It's mostly there because your unusual macro target calls for a lot of fat relative to protein. One ounce conveniently supplies about 23 g of fat without adding protein or carbohydrates.
So your hypothetical diet has evolved into:
12 cheese sticks + 3 eggs + ½ cup beans + 1 oz butter
and, purely from the standpoint of calories and macros, you've engineered something remarkably close to your target.
Hurrah, a great milestone was reached yesterday, the National Debt just hit $40 trillion! The number is $40,047,425,768,420.22to be exact.
We first hit $39 trillion on 3/17/26, so this took almost exactly 5 months. Only 5 months before that it first hit $38 trillion (on 10/22/25). And only 7 months before that it first hit $37 trillion (on 8/13/25). So the National Debt has increased $3 trillion in only 1 year.
Why are we celebrating debt? Because it also represents wealth to the holders of it. And this debt is created out of thin air and never has to be paid back and it can be increased to infinity! (What could go wrong with this plan?)
We are doubling the national debt every 9 years. It was $20 trillion on 9/11/2017 , and $10 trillion on 9/30/2008. At this pace, we will hit $80 trillion by 9/30/2035.
I thought I was pessimistic but an economist is thinks the situation is much worse.
In the coming days the U.S. national debt is set to breach $40 trillion for the first time. Soberingly, Bank of America’s chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett. predicts that the next milestone, $50 trillion, will be reached in July 2029. These worrying landmarks reinforce a market perception that fixed-income investments are losing bets, a sentiment Hartnett summarizes as “Anything But Bonds.”
In July 2025, the deficit was $289 billion [or $291 bn], and in comparison to that, July 2026 had $5 billion less of revenue and $135 billion more in outlays.
The biggest changes in the outlays were:
■ Outlays of the Department of Housing and Urban Development increased by $20 billion.
■ Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $19 billion (or 22 percent).
So it seems like a pretty normal month, they just happened to spend $135 billion more than they had planned. Oops.
The 72-hour Sardine Fast was invented by Dr Annette Bosworth.
Sardine fasting was invented by Dr. Annette Bosworth, aka Dr. Boz, who specializes in reversing medical problems through healthy ketogenic living. She first implemented sardine fasting when she was traveling with her family and wanted to find an easier way to stick to a keto lifestyle. During this fast, you can only consume sardines, water, and black tea or coffee. There is also no eating routine or window, a person can eat whenever they are hungry. Sardines are highly nutritious. They are high in omega-3 vitamin D, free vitamin E, calcium, selenium, and many other minerals and enzymes. The high protein and fat content within them often makes you feel fuller. https://www.newsweek.com/3-day-sardine-fast-keto-diet-impressive-results-1817004
Only buy Sardines in olive oil, not soybean oil. The ones in water have a stronger taste and different texture, and you need to add fat to them anyways, so just get the ones in olive oil.
The egg fast was invented by a blogger. It involves eating only eggs, butter and cheese. It is a strict, short-term ketogenic diet plan used to break weight-loss plateaus. Eggs are cheap and very filling.
A Sardine & Egg Fast just combines the two. The main reason for not doing a strict sardine fast is that they are very expensive, about $4 per 4-oz tin.
I am going to start this soon and will document my results. I bought 5 tins of sardines and I have about 2 dozen eggs and 2 sticks of Kerrygold butter.
Rules of the Sardine 2.0 Challenge
1. The clock starts when you open can #1. Unlike a water fast where you eat a meal and start the timer, this timer starts when you eat the first bite of sardines. The timer stops just after you eat the final can.
2. Eat at least 1 can every 24 hours and ideally eat when you are hungry. She recommends King Oscar brand.
3. Toppings include mustard, hot sauce and black pepper. No ketchup or any condiments with carbohydrates. No crackers or bread, even keto bread.
4. If you cannot stomach sardines, you can substitute mackerel or herring (kipper). But try sardines first. And the same rules, only buy it if it is in olive oil.
5. If you are allergic to fish, then do the egg fast.
This is modified to make it similar to an Atkins Induction diet, and to fit with what is easy for me to prepare. I think the original diet is very complicated with a wide variety of foods. This is simpler.
Day 1
Breakfast (190 calories)
1 whole grapefruit (instead of ½ grapefruit)
1 slice Hero bread
1 hard-boiled egg (instead of 2 tablespoons peanut butter)
Black coffee or tea (optional)
Lunch (250 calories)
1 can tuna (instead of ½ can)
1 slice Hero bread
Black coffee or tea (optional)
Dinner (320 calories)
4 oz tofu (instead of meat)
1 can green beans with soy sauce (instead of 1 cup)
1 grapefruit (instead of 1/2 banana and 1 small apple)
salad with light dressing (optional)
1 small container Kroger Carbmaster yogurt (instead of 1 cup vanilla ice cream)
Day 2
Breakfast (190 calories)
1 whole grapefruit (instead of 1/2 banana)
1 slice Hero bread
1 hard-boiled egg
Black coffee or tea (optional)
Lunch (400 calories)
1 hard-boiled egg
1 slice Hero bread (instead of 5 saltine crackers)
1 can tuna (added)
1 small container Kroger Carbmaster yogurt (instead of 1 cup cottage cheese)
Dinner (500 calories)
1 small can of Vienna sausages (instead of 2 hot dogs) with mustard
1 cup broccoli (or broccoli slaw)
½ cup carrots (optional)
1 whole grapefruit (instead of ½ banana)
salad with light dressing (optional)
1 small container Kroger Carbmaster yogurt
Day 3
Breakfast (300 calories)
1 whole grapefruit (instead of 1 small apple)
1 slice Hero bread (instead of 5 crackers)
1 oz cheese stick (mozzarella or cheddar, instead of 1 slice cheddar cheese)
1 hard-boiled egg (added)
Black coffee or tea (optional)
Lunch (310 calories)
1 hard-boiled egg
1 slice Hero bread
1 can tuna (added)
Dinner (320 calories)
1 can tuna
1 can green beans with soy sauce (instead of 1 cup)
1 whole grapefruit (instead of ½ banana)
salad with light dressing (optional)
1 small container Kroger Carbmaster yogurt
Every item on here is very low calorie, except for the cans of tuna (200 calories each) and Vienna sausages (290 calories)
They make it hard to find the actual numbers, so follow the same instructions as last time. Note the actual GDP is 32,475.2 billion, but I am rounding it up to emphasize that it is not nearly as exact as they say.
Debt Held by the Public just hit $32.0 trillion, so the Debt to GDP ratio is 98.5%. One year ago, this number was 97.4%.
One danger signal is if the Debt to GDP ratio increases more than 2.0% in a year, and we are not there yet. However, this may happen as soon as 2030, according to my last forecast (which is now obsolete).
As of 7/30/2026, Debt Held by the Public was $32,035,731,397,438.63. This was about 5.5 months after it first hit $31 trillion.
I have a theory that this is no big deal that the debt is growing only arithmetically, not exponentially, and to prove it, we look at milestones in 2 year increments as they grow 4 trillion.
The debt held by the public first hit $28 trillion on 8/13/24, which is just under 2 years ago.
It first hit $24 trillion on 8/29/22, almost exactly 2 years before that.
And it first hit $20 trillion on 6/3/2020, slightly more than 2 years before that.
The opposite argument is that the debt is growing exponentially and doubling about every 8 years.
When did it first hit $16 trillion? On 11/30/2018. So it has doubled in less than 8 years.
When did it first hit $8 trillion? On 3/1/2010, slightly more than 8 years before that.
When did it first hit $4 trillion? It was $3.99 trillion on 10/31/2003, about 6.5 years before that.
===========================
So what will this number be on 9/30/2034, which is the end of the fiscal year 8 years from now. Under the first theory, it would be $48 trillion. Under the second theory, it will be $64 trillion.
Ok ChatGPT, I have a new plan. I am going on the Dukan Diet, which is very protein heavy. Can you give me a 3 day plan for the attack phase? I have oat bran. Can you make the protein meals from tuna, eggs, tofu, protein shakes and greek yogurt? Don't worry, I am only doing this for 3 days and then I will expand my food variety.
Absolutely. For just 3 days, the Dukan Attack Phase is fairly straightforward. The goal is to eat lean protein whenever you're hungry, drink plenty of water, and have 1½ tablespoons of oat bran per day. Since you're only planning to do this for three days before broadening your diet, using a limited selection of foods is unlikely to create nutritional deficiencies over such a short period.
Based on the foods you listed (tuna, eggs, tofu, protein shakes, Greek yogurt, and oat bran), here's a simple plan.
Day
Breakfast
Lunch
Snack
Dinner
Approx. Calories
1
1 cup nonfat Greek yogurt + 1½ tbsp oat bran
2 cans tuna mixed with mustard and spices
Protein shake (about 30g protein)
4 eggs (hard boiled or scrambled)
~1,350
2
Protein shake
Tofu scramble (14 oz firm tofu with garlic, pepper, paprika)
1 cup Greek yogurt
2 cans tuna
~1,300
3
1 cup Greek yogurt + 1½ tbsp oat bran
4 eggs
Protein shake
14 oz baked tofu
~1,350
Daily Totals (Approximate)
Calories
Protein
Carbs
Fat
1,250–1,400
140–170 g
25–40 g
35–45 g
This is a very high-protein diet while remaining fairly low in carbohydrates and moderate in fat.
=======================================
Update: I am abandoning this diet, at least the Attack Phase, because I find it impossible to follow strictly. Imagine a diet, if you will, that bans lettuce. The other problem is that it is similar to the Lyle McDonald Rapid Fat Loss (RFL) protocol, but under that system you would have to increase protein consumption even more.
Also, I don't like canned tuna that much and can't eat more than 2 cans per day. And a protein shake I drank cause a severe insulin response, making me tired and then extremely hungry for the rest of the day, so I can't eat whey protein except just before bedtime. And I don't like nonfat Greek yogurt - just a little fat makes it taste much better.
I am taking a break for a few days and then may start again with the Atkins Induction phase.
Can you give me a diet plan to follow to lose weight? Something
like the military diet, but that needs some changes. Give me an
eating plan for 3 days, limiting it to 1500 calories per day or less.
And can you keep it simple as I won't be cooking except for with a
microwave, and I will have to buy all the food. It doesn't have to
have a wide variety of foods. Obviously, avoid carb-heavy foods like
bread, pasta, pizza, rice, chips, and tortillas. Also no celery.
There should be at least one salad per day. And include tuna and
eggs. Other than that it is fair game.
Day 1 (≈1,470 calories)
Breakfast (290 calories)
3 hard-boiled eggs
1 apple
Lunch (370 calories)
Large salad:
Salad mix
1 can tuna
Cucumbers
Tomatoes
2 Tbsp light dressing
Snack (170 calories)
Greek yogurt
10 almonds
Dinner (510 calories)
6 oz rotisserie chicken
Steam bag broccoli
Half an avocado
Dessert (130 calories)
Greek yogurt
Protein: ~130g
=====================
Day 2 (≈1,520 calories)
Breakfast (320 calories)
2 eggs
Greek yogurt
String cheese
Lunch (350 calories)
Large salad:
Tuna
Greens
Tomatoes
Cucumbers
Light dressing
Snack (180 calories)
Cottage cheese (1 cup)
Dinner (540 calories)
6 oz chicken
Mixed vegetables
Half avocado
Dessert (130 calories)
Greek yogurt
Protein: ~135g
================
Day 3 (≈1,560 calories)
Breakfast (300 calories)
3 eggs
Greek yogurt
Lunch (390 calories)
Large salad:
Tuna
Mixed greens
Cucumbers
Tomatoes
Light dressing
Snack (140 calories)
Apple
Dinner (600 calories)
7 oz chicken
Broccoli
String cheese
Half avocado
Dessert (130 calories)
Greek yogurt
Protein: ~140g
===========
Why this works
This plan emphasizes:
High protein to
preserve muscle and reduce hunger.
Low carbohydrate intake,
avoiding bread, pasta, rice, pizza, chips, and tortillas as you
requested.
High fiber from
salads and vegetables to help you feel full.
Healthy fats from
avocado and a small amount of almonds for satiety.
Foods that are easy to prepare with just a microwave or no
cooking beyond boiling eggs in advance.
I have not read this. The Hawaii Supreme Court supposedly calls the US Supreme Court racist and declares their independence from it.
The Court that now defines federal due process does not
honor the work of 1954. It revives the work of 1857. The work
of 1896. The Constitution must be interpreted “according to its
true intent and meaning when it was adopted.” Dred Scott v.
Sandford, 60 U.S. 393, 405 (1857).
The Roberts Court did what Congress never would. It
rewrote the Voting Rights Act of 1965, a cornerstone of American
civil rights, democratically enacted and repeatedly
reauthorized.
A state can declare that its citizens have greater rights under its own constitution than under the US Constitution. Maybe that is all the Hawaii Supreme Court is doing. But Hawaii Justice Todd Eddins, the author of this decision, seems to be going out of his way to insult US Chief Justice John Roberts in particular.
[Ray] Dalio's debt cycle framework identifies two distinct types of housing crisis. The crash and the freeze. Most people are watching for the crash. The crash is fast. Prices
fall sharply. Buyers return because the math works again. The market clears. Painful. But it resolves. The freeze is different. Prices do not fall. They suspend. Sellers will not sell because giving up their 3% mortgage to buy again at 7% nearly doubles their monthly payment on an equivalent home. So, they stay even when the carrying costs are rising around them. Buyers cannot buy because at 7% mortgage rates, the monthly payment on a median-priced American home requires a household income of $110,000. Median American household income is $77,000. Sellers will not sell. Buyers cannot buy. The market stops. That is the freeze. And in Dalio's framework, the freeze is more destructive than the crash. Not because it is more dramatic, because it lasts longer, and because it erodes equity silently, while the official price appears stable.
What Happened in Japan Here is the historical evidence for how long it lasts. Japan, 1991. Property prices in Tokyo peaked. In the 15 years that followed, prices fell 60%. Not in a crash, in a freeze. Sellers refusing to accept lower prices. Buyers unable to qualify at existing prices. A market that appeared stable on the surface while declining beneath it. American housing in 2026 has the same -structural configuration. Sellers locked in, buyers locked out. The only question is duration. Japan's freeze lasted 15 years.
My comments: It could be 15 years before the freeze ends. The housing market peaked between 2022 and 2024, depending on location, so it could be frozen until 2037 to 2039.
How to get out of this situation? The shortest but most painful way is for there to be a housing crash. The Fed could rise rates 2% or more (so the mortgage rates would be above 8%) and force a housing crash at which point buyers could afford to buy again, albeit at higher interest rates. But this is not going to happen because it will cause too many foreclosures.
Alternatively, the Fed could drop rates by 2% or more and allow inflation, but this will make it even worse. If mortgage rates drop down to 3% again, then this will cause house prices to soar again and then when rates increase again, the freeze will re-emerge, but even worse.
What if rates drop but not too much, maybe by 1%. This is probably the best that can be hoped for. At lower rates, the pool of buyers will increase.
The combined trust funds’ reserves were about $2.56 trillion at the end of
2025. The combined trust fund reserves decline on a present value basis after
2025 but remain positive through 2033.
However, this cumulative amount becomes negative beginning in 2034,
which means that the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds have a net
unfunded obligation through the end of each year after 2033. Through the
end of 2100, the combined funds have a present-value unfunded obligation
of $29.3 trillion.
Expressed in present-value dollars discounted to January 1, 2026, the 75-year open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI is
$29.3 trillion, or 1.5 percent of GDP over the years 2026-2100. In last year’s
report, the unfunded obligation was $25.1 trillion, or 1.3 percent of GDP
over the years 2025-99.
So the funds become depleted in 2034, the same as in last years report. The 75 year unfunded obligation increased from $25.1 trillion to $29.3 trillion, an increase of $4.2 trillion, which is not good at all. In 2024 this number was $22.6 trillion.
Now, what is the expected GDP in 2070 under intermediate assumptions?
In the 2024 report, the expected GDP in 2070 is 176,496.
Lifelike cats, dogs and birds help older patients stay calm and feel at home when they have to be hospitalized. If the success of a UCHealth pilot project is any measure, robotic cats, dogs, and birds could become pivotal in supporting older patients.
Robotic companion pets first emerged as care enhancers for dementia patients in 2004 with the commercialization, in Japan, of a baby harp seal robot called PARO. The idea was to help reduce loneliness, agitation and anxiety among people with dementia. PARO cost several thousand dollars, and its target market was nursing care facilities rather than hospitals.
But at a conference early this year, Jennifer Rodgers, University of Colorado Hospital’s chief nursing officer, attended a presentation about PARO’s benefits for hospitalized dementia patients. She discussed the possibility of robotic companion pets with Fehlig, who did some research and suggested using robotic cats, dogs and birds rather than the baby seal. There were several advantages to switching from aquatic to dryland creatures.
The federal government incurred a deficit of $294 billion in May 2026, CBO estimates—
$21 billion less than the deficit recorded for the previous May. The federal budget deficit totaled $1.2 trillion [actually $1.248 trillion] in the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, the
Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $116 billion less than the deficit recorded
during the same period last fiscal year [which was $1.364 trillion]. Revenues rose by $174 billion (or 5 percent), and outlays
increased by $57 billion (or 1 percent). Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $28 billion (or 32 percent) [to $742 billion FYTD].
The Debt Held By the Public as of 5/29/26 was $31.5 trillion, compared to $30.0 trillion as of 5/30/25, so it increased almost exactly 5% over the last year.
Candace Owens' most revolting attack EVER: In a new rant almost too atrocious to publish, she takes her nastiest MAGA feud nuclear... sending shockwaves into the heart of the White House
I don't really care, but I will follow up at some point with more details. I used to support Candace Owens 100%, but that ended after her attempted take-down of Victor Marx. Laura Loomer is a nasty women, and Candace is stupid for even responding; she should have been smart enough to take the high road. Now this is like bikini mud wrestling between two ugly broads - I don't care who wins, but it is mildly entertaining.
THREE WAYS OUT
When a government has this much debt, there are only three realistic paths: austerity, default, or inflation. Austerity means tax hikes and spending cuts, but that is politically almost impossible because it would require painful cuts to programs like Social Security, Medicare, and defense. Default would be catastrophic because U.S. Treasuries are the foundation of the global financial system. That leaves the third option: slowly shrinking the debt through inflation.
INFLATION SOLUTION
If the government pays 2.5% interest while inflation runs at 6%, the real value of the debt shrinks by 3.5% per year. The debt technically remains, but its burden becomes smaller. This is how governments can quietly reduce debt without officially defaulting or admitting that savers are absorbing the cost.
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
The U.S. used this playbook after World II. Debt reached roughly 106% of GDP, and instead of paying it down through responsible budgeting, the government kept interest rates artificially low while inflation ran higher. Treasury bills were pegged at 0.375%, long-term bonds at 2.5%, and inflation at times reached double digits. Savers and bondholders earned negative real returns, while the national debt was inflated away over time.
I am reading a summary of a video conversation with financial analyst Ed Dowd at https://usawatchdog.com/250-oil-11-inflation-worst-case-in-2026-ed-dowd/ . He says that in a worst case scenario he see the price of oil going to $250 a barrel and $10 per gallon, with 11% inflation. He says that this may happen if the war with Iran is not resolved "soon". He doesn't put a time frame it, but I think 60 days would be reasonable, since that is the period of the proposed cease fire. Do you agree or disagree with his analysis, and what do you think the odds of this worst case scenario occurring?
I would characterize Ed Dowd's scenario as a plausible tail-risk scenario, but not the most likely outcome.
The key issue is whether there is a prolonged, severe disruption in Persian Gulf oil flows — especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of globally traded oil. Multiple analysts and institutions agree that a sustained closure or near-closure would create a major energy shock and materially increase inflation.
Where I differ from Dowd is on the probability and magnitude.
Could oil hit $250/barrel?
Yes, technically possible — but it would likely require:
and a broader regional war rather than a limited conflict.
Even some bearish mainstream analyses are talking more in the range of:
$130–$140 Brent in a severe but not apocalyptic scenario.
A move to $250 would be more comparable to:
a true global supply panic,
wartime rationing psychology,
or a cascading financial crisis layered on top of the oil shock.
That is not impossible, but it is substantially beyond current base-case forecasts.
Could gasoline hit $10/gallon?
National average U.S. gasoline prices around $10/gallon would probably require:
oil well above $180–$200,
refinery disruptions,
panic buying,
or localized shortages.
Certain states like California could theoretically touch those levels temporarily in a severe crisis. A nationwide sustained $10 average would imply an extremely serious energy emergency.
Could inflation hit 11%?
Yes — if there were a true 1970s-style energy shock.
Energy feeds into:
transportation,
fertilizer,
food,
plastics,
manufacturing,
shipping,
airline costs,
and consumer expectations.
Several current analyses already warn the Iran conflict is increasing inflation risks and could force central banks to keep rates higher or even raise them.
But 11% CPI would likely require:
oil remaining extremely elevated for many months,
secondary wage-price spirals,
and policymakers losing control of inflation expectations.
That is a much higher bar than merely having a difficult geopolitical environment.
My estimate of probabilities
Very rough personal estimates:
Scenario
Approximate Probability
Moderate energy shock, oil $100–$140
40–50%
Serious stagflation, oil $140–$180
15–25%
Extreme crisis, oil $200+
5–10%
Dowd-style worst case ($250 oil, $10 gas, 11% inflation)
perhaps 2–5%
Those are obviously subjective.
What matters most
I think Dowd is directionally correct about one thing:
The longer a Gulf conflict persists, the greater the probability of nonlinear economic consequences.
That's consistent with many mainstream analysts.
Markets can absorb:
short disruptions,
brief missile exchanges,
temporary shipping issues.
What they struggle with is:
uncertainty,
prolonged supply impairment,
and the perception that the conflict has no clear end.
One thing I'd watch closely
The single most important variable is probably:
Whether tanker traffic through Hormuz normalizes.
If:
shipping insurance stabilizes,
tanker flows resume,
and Gulf exports continue,
then Dowd's extreme scenario becomes much less likely.
If instead:
traffic remains severely impaired for months,
energy infrastructure keeps getting hit,
and inventories drain globally,
then the probability of a genuine stagflation crisis rises substantially.
So overall:
I do not dismiss Dowd's scenario as impossible.
I do think it is a low-probability, high-impact scenario rather than the most likely path.
And I think the next 30–90 days are probably critical in determining whether this becomes a contained energy shock or something much larger.
Can you act as a geopolitical analyst or pundit? What do you think the odds are that the US invades Cuba in the next few months? Maybe it will be worded differently, like a humanitarian relief effort including military assistance.
A U.S. invasion of Cuba in the next few months is very unlikely. If I were putting rough probabilities on it as a geopolitical analyst, I’d frame it something like this:
Full-scale military invasion / regime-change operation: probably well under 5%
Limited military action (special operations, maritime interdiction, evacuation missions, intelligence activity): low but not impossible, maybe 5–10%
Humanitarian or stabilization mission with some military presence: still unlikely, but more plausible than outright invasion if Cuba experienced a severe state collapse or mass migration crisis
The key point is that there is currently no strong strategic, political, or military setup for a U.S. invasion.
Why the odds are low:
No broad political consensus in Washington
Even hawkish U.S. politicians usually focus on sanctions, pressure, or support for dissidents — not invasion. After Iraq and Afghanistan, there is little appetite domestically for another occupation-style operation in the Western Hemisphere.
Cuba is economically weak but politically stable enough
The Cuban government has serious economic problems — shortages, blackouts, emigration, currency dysfunction — but it has not reached the kind of total state collapse that typically precedes outside intervention.
International backlash would be severe
Most of Latin America, including many U.S. partners, would strongly oppose a unilateral intervention. It would likely trigger condemnation at the United Nations and strain relations across the region.
The migration issue cuts both ways
If instability in Cuba caused a major refugee crisis toward Florida, the U.S. might increase Coast Guard, naval, or humanitarian operations. But historically, Washington has preferred containment and migration management over invasion.
Military priorities are elsewhere
U.S. strategic focus is currently much more centered on:
China and the Indo-Pacific
Russia and the war in Ukraine
the Middle East and Red Sea shipping security
That said, there are a few scenarios that could increase the odds somewhat:
Sudden collapse of the Cuban government
Large-scale civil unrest or armed factional conflict
A mass refugee exodus larger than the Mariel boatlift
Evidence of a hostile foreign military foothold (for example involving Russia or China)
A U.S. administration deciding domestic political gains outweigh diplomatic costs
If intervention ever happened, it probably would not initially be described as “an invasion.” Modern U.S. political language would more likely frame it as:
humanitarian stabilization
evacuation/security operations
protection of civilians
maritime security
counter-trafficking operations
multinational peacekeeping
That framing has historical precedent in places like Haiti, Panama, or the Balkans, although Cuba is a much more politically sensitive case because of its history with the U.S.
Overall, the bigger near-term risk is probably not invasion but:
worsening Cuban economic collapse,
rising migration pressure,
and increased U.S. covert/intelligence involvement rather than overt military occupation.
