Trump requests $1.5 trillion for Department of War in FY 2027

Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/budget_fy2027.pdf

I can't copy and paste from the document and I don't want to retype it.  On page 59 it says they are requesting $1.5 trillion, which is a $441 billion increase from FY 2026.  But then it says "base discretionary budget authority" is $1.1 trillion, and $350 billion in additional resources for "increasing access to critical munitions and further expansion of the defense industrial base".

On page 83, it says the FY 2026 enacted amount was $1,009 billion with an increase of $440.9 billion to $1,450 billion.

There was already $155 billion allocated in FY 2026 for Working Families Tax Cut Act Funding.  This amount will be cut to zero and then the new resources will be $350 billion.  So the next increase will "only" be $195 billion.

Where did the WFTCA money in 2026?  Supposedly for tax cuts to middle-class people.  And now that will be taken away.  So effectively raising taxes on the middle class to pay for the new funding.

Financial Repression

 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P0g3ETHPg0

This easy to understand video explains how the government can slowly get out of debt, that is, reduce the debt to GDP ratio.  Just pay interest at a lower rate than inflation.  They did it after WW2.  Easy.  It's called inflating away the value of the debt through financial repression.

The only problem is the people who are relying on their savings in the bank and on interest on bonds who will get hurt.  But everyone else benefits from this strategy.

What are the odds of Alberta secession?

 What are the odds that voters in Alberta, Canada will vote for seccession and that Alberta will actually secede and become an independent country?

ChatGPT: Short answer: low—but not zero.
There are really two separate probabilities to think about:

1. Will Albertans vote for secession?
2. If they did, would Alberta actually become independent?

---

1) Odds of a pro-secession vote

Recent polling is pretty consistent:

• Roughly 20%–30% support independence
• Roughly 60%–70% oppose it
• One recent 2026 poll found only 26% support

Even when you exclude undecided voters, support still does not reach a majority.

What that means in practical terms

• A referendum today would almost certainly fail
• Support would need to jump 20–25 percentage points to win

That’s a massive swing. For context, even at the height of Quebec separatism (1995), it barely reached ~50%.

👉 Rough probability (near term):

• Passing a referendum: ~5–15%

---

2) Odds Alberta actually secedes (even if it votes yes)

This is where the probability drops dramatically.

Under Canadian law (especially the Clarity Act and Supreme Court rulings):

• A referendum does not automatically trigger independence
• It triggers negotiations with the federal government
• Those negotiations would involve:
  • Parliament
  • Other provinces
  • Indigenous treaty rights (a huge factor)
  • Borders, debt, currency, military, trade, etc.

There are also major structural barriers:

🚧 Legal obstacles

• Secession would require constitutional changes
• That likely needs approval from multiple provinces

🧭 Indigenous treaties

• Large parts of Alberta are covered by treaties with First Nations
• Those agreements are with the Canadian Crown, not Alberta
• Many Indigenous leaders oppose separation

💰 Economic realities

• Alberta is landlocked → depends on Canada/U.S. for trade routes
• Currency, banking system, and debt division are unresolved
• Businesses hate uncertainty → capital flight risk

🏛️ Political reality

• No major governing party is campaigning on full independence
• Even conservative leaders generally support more autonomy, not secession

👉 Rough probability (even after a “Yes” vote):

• Successfully becoming independent: ~1–5%

---

3) Combined probability (realistically)

If you combine both steps:

• Chance of referendum passing: low
• Chance of successful secession afterward: very low

👉 Overall probability Alberta becomes an independent country (near-term):
Probably well under 5%

---

4) When could the odds increase?

This would only become plausible if multiple things changed at once:

• Support rises to ~50%+ consistently
• A major political party adopts independence officially
• A severe federal-provincial crisis (economic or constitutional)
• Clear plan for Indigenous consent and economic transition

Right now, none of those conditions are met.

---

Bottom line

• Independence is a minority position today
• A referendum could happen, but would likely fail
• Actual secession is extremely unlikely, even if a vote passed

Falken ZIEX ZE950

 I have heard really good things about this tire, available for purchase from Tires-Easy.  The only negative is the UTQG is only 500AA and it only has a 45,000 mile warranty.  But I would rather buy a good, cheap tire with a shorter life.  After spending so much time before reviewing tires, I find it fun to buy tires.

The video is 11 years old and the quality isn't the best, but it has an authentic feel to it.  Check out Falken, it's a good brand.

Financial Report of the United States Government for FY 2025

 See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2025/FY-2025-Financial-Report-3-19-2025(Final).pdf  Note: The date in the title of the PDF says 2025, but internally this document is dated March 19, 2026.  

The most interesting thing about it, I think is the "Federal Employee and Veterans Benefits Payable" of $15.5 trillion as of 9/30/25, up from $15 trillion the previous year.  Should this be included in the national debt?

The biggest part of this is the Veterans Compensation and Burial Benefits of $7.3 trillion.   I think the amount paid each year (maybe $300 billion) is treated as a cash expense under the Veterans Administration, and the payable amount is the projected payments over the next 40 or so years.

Is a crash underway?

 Now the price of silver and gold is dropping like a rock.  Is a crash underway?

Well, the war has disrupted the Straight of Hormuz, and oil shipments have plummeted.  Oil is skyrocketing, as well as Liquid Natural Gas.  Iran has hit oil refineries in Haifa, Israel, and in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Dubai and UAE.  We now have 4 aircraft carriers in the area, plus France sending the Charles DeGaulle aircraft crrier group.

If the war doesn't end soon, it looks like a worldwide recession.  A very large aluminum plant had shut down for lack of fuel.  Several massive LNG and oil contracts have not been delivered on.

Dollar down, stocks down, bonds down, gold down, silver down. The only thing up is oild and LNG.  In my opinion, we are looking for a monetary event to take place soon. The Petrodollar is going away. I think a reset of the financial system is coming, estimates of 10 times worse than 2008.  Probably going to a digital dollar.  Speculation. But realistic speculation. Silver may go back go to $60. I never throught it would go down like this.  Right now back up to $70.

It looks like a major recession is coming later this year, plus a massive drought in the west. The real estate market may crash like 2009.

The failure to deliver is called Force Majuere. Very serious breach of contract. Also an investment company called Jane Street has like 20 million shares of paper silver, and they manipulate the price of silver up and down.

Business real estate is in a freefall. Massive skyscrapers sitting empty. The housing market is in a huge bubble, as well as tech stocks, AI stocks, and private credit. Massive defaults going on right now in private credit.  The Federal government is propping up the AI in my opinion.

When the everything bubble pops, it will be spectacularly bad.  Add in Ukraine war, and NATO falling apart. Another thing to consider - what do Venezuela, Cuba and Iran have in common?  I believe that their central banks are not closely associated with the Rothschild family.  From a conspiracy theory consideration, all these countries need to fall to implement worldwide finance systems.

National Debt hits $39 trillion

 On 3/17/26, St Patrick's Day, the National Debt officially hit $39,016,762,910,245.14. This is only 5 months after it first hit $38 trillion (on 10/22/25).  And only 7 months after it first hit $37 trillion (on 8/13/25).  

When did it first reach $19.5 trillion? On 8/31/16, just a tad under 10 years ago.  So we can expect it to hit $78 trillion in 2036 in 10 years from now.

Supposedly, the debt is only increasing at $1.9 trillion per year but it seems like this is increasing faster than that.  Expect it to hit the $40 trillion mark on 9/30/26 at the end of this fiscal year.

Water is not H2O

 read this https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/is-water-really-h2o-intriguing-arguments

This is the craziest thing I have ever heard, next to the flat earth theory.  Quick summary:

No “New” Water Creation: no one has ever demonstrated the production of “new” liquid water solely from the reaction of hydrogen and oxygen gases. In demonstrations involving combustion, the appearance of water is merely assumed to be a result of the reaction, rather than proven.

Failure to “Split” Water Alone: Conversely, water cannot be split into hydrogen and oxygen without the presence of an electrolyte (like salt or acid). He suggests that the gases produced in these experiments actually originate from the electrolyte or the electrodes themselves, not the water.

Revised Q4 2025 GDP is $31.44 trillion

The headline reads: "US Q4 GDP Growth Cut In Half To Just 0.7% After Revision".  "The BEA reported that Q4 GDP in the US was slashed by half after the 1st revision of data: instead of 1.4%, the US grew just 0.7% in the last quarter of 2025 (0.660% to be precise), and far below estimates of a 1.4% print. It was also the lowest GDP print since Q1 2025. "

This all seems very confusing to me and I like to think of myself as an amateur economist.  Is the 1.4%, now 0.7%, an increase in real GPD over the quarter, or is it current GDP, or is it annualized?  Is this a minor adjustment or is it big?  And how do they calculate "real" GDP vs "nominal" GDP?

I like to look at the actual numbers, which the BEA hides pretty well.  Look at Related Materials, Tables Only, Table 3, and then Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q4 2025 and there it is: 31,442.5.  This is only $48 billion less than the previous estimate and so it is no big deal - it is just basically a rounding error.  This is not even worth recalculating the debt to GDP ratio.

Updated March 2026 Forecast

 My last forecast was so bad I have to redo this, but I will leave the prior one posted for comparison.  Here is an updated forecast, which mostly comes from https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62044

			Outl	Prim		Total	Debt 	Debt
Year	GDP	Rev	X Int	Defi	Int	Defi	Public	% of GDP
2026	32.3	5.7	6.5	-0.8	1.1	-1.9	32.2	99.7%
2027	33.7	5.9	6.7	-0.8	1.1	-1.9	34.1	101.2%
2028	35.0	6.1	6.9	-0.8	1.2	-2.0	36.1	103.1%
2029	36.4	6.4	7.2	-0.8	1.3	-2.1	38.2	104.9%
2030	37.7	6.6	7.4	-0.8	1.4	-2.2	40.4	107.2%
2031	39.2	6.9	7.7	-0.8	1.6	-2.4	42.8	109.2%
2032	40.7	7.2	8.0	-0.8	1.7	-2.5	45.3	111.3%
2033	42.2	7.5	8.3	-0.8	1.8	-2.6	47.9	113.5%
2034	43.8	7.7	8.7	-1.0	1.9	-2.9	50.8	116.0%
2035	45.4	8.0	9.0	-1.0	2.0	-3.0	53.8	118.5%
2036	47.1	8.4	9.3	-0.9	2.2	-3.1	56.9	120.8%
2037	48.9	8.7	9.7	-1.0	2.3	-3.3	60.2	123.1%
2038	50.8	9.1	10.1	-1.0	2.4	-3.4	63.6	125.2%
2039	52.7	9.5	10.5	-1.0	2.6	-3.6	67.2	127.5%
2040	54.7	9.8	10.9	-1.1	2.7	-3.8	71.0	129.8%
2041	56.7	10.2	11.3	-1.1	2.9	-4.0	75.0	132.3%
2042	58.9	10.7	11.8	-1.1	3.1	-4.2	79.2	134.5%
2043	61.1	11.1	12.3	-1.2	3.3	-4.5	83.7	137.0%
2044	63.3	11.5	12.8	-1.3	3.4	-4.7	88.4	139.7%
2045	65.7	12.0	13.3	-1.3	3.6	-4.9	93.3	142.0%
2046	68.1	12.5	13.9	-1.4	3.9	-5.3	98.6	144.8%
2047	70.5	13.0	14.4	-1.4	4.1	-5.5	104.1	147.7%
2048	73.1	13.5	15.0	-1.5	4.3	-5.8	109.9	150.3%
2049	75.7	14.0	15.5	-1.5	4.6	-6.1	116.0	153.2%
2050	78.4	14.5	16.2	-1.7	4.8	-6.5	122.5	156.2%
2051	81.2	15.1	16.8	-1.7	5.1	-6.8	129.3	159.2%

The breaking point at 150% of GDP happens here in 2048.  Compare this to my June 2025 forecast which shows this 150% mark in 2045.

Legal Brief by OpenAI in support of Anthropic

 See: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72379655/24/1/anthropic-pbc-v-us-department-of-war/

The legal vacuum in which these contractual terms exist makes them only more important. The United States currently has no comprehensive federal law governing the use of AI by military or intelligence agencies in domestic contexts. There is no statutory framework requiring transparency, judicial oversight, or meaningful accountability for AI-driven surveillance at scale. There is no enforceable legal standard governing when an autonomous weapons system may select and engage a target. In the absence of public law, the contractual and technological requirements that AI developers impose on the use of their systems represent a vital safeguard against their catastrophic misuse.

That is the key point they are making.  Because there are no laws governing AI, then the guardrails that AI develops impose are necessary to prevent their misuse.

The solution to this conundrum is to create such a legal framework governing the use of AI, not to have AI developers arbitrarily impose their own views.

Deficit of $308 Billion in February 2026

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $308 billion in February 2026. The federal budget deficit totaled $1.0 trillion in the first five months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $142 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues rose by $206 billion (or 11 percent), and outlays were $64 billion (or 2 percent) higher. Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $31 billion (or 8 percent) [to $433 billion FYTD] because the debt was larger than it was in the first five months of fiscal year 2025 and because of higher long-term interest rates.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-03/61978-MBR.pdf

March 2026 Forecast

 

		Tax	Spend	Spend	Tot Sp	Primary		Total	Debt to	Debt %
Year	GDP	Rev	Other	SS	x Int	Deficit	Int	Deficit	Public	GDP
2025	30.7	5.2	4.4	1.6	6.0	0.8	1.0	1.8	30.3	98.7%
2026	32.3	5.6	4.7	1.7	6.4	0.8	1.2	2.1	32.4	100.2%
2027	33.7	5.9	4.8	1.8	6.6	0.7	1.3	2.0	34.4	102.0%
2028	35.0	6.1	5.0	1.9	6.9	0.8	1.4	2.2	36.6	104.6%
2029	36.4	6.3	5.1	2.0	7.1	0.8	1.5	2.3	38.9	106.8%
2030	37.7	6.6	5.3	2.1	7.4	0.8	1.6	2.4	41.2	109.3%
2031	39.2	6.9	5.4	2.2	7.6	0.7	1.6	2.3	43.6	111.2%
2032	40.7	7.1	5.6	2.3	7.9	0.8	1.7	2.5	46.1	113.3%
2033	42.2	7.4	6.0	2.4	8.4	1.0	1.8	2.8	49.0	116.0%
2034	43.8	7.7	6.1	2.5	8.6	0.9	2.0	2.9	51.8	118.3%
2035	45.4	8.0	6.2	2.6	8.8	0.8	2.1	2.9	54.7	120.5%
2036	47.1	8.3	6.6	2.7	9.3	1.0	2.2	3.2	57.9	122.9%
2037	48.9	8.6	7.0	2.9	9.9	1.3	2.3	3.6	61.5	125.8%
2038	50.8	8.9	7.6	3.0	10.6	1.7	2.5	4.2	65.7	129.4%
2039	52.7	9.3	8.2	3.1	11.3	2.0	2.6	4.7	70.4	133.6%
2040	54.7	9.7	8.9	3.2	12.1	2.4	2.8	5.2	75.6	138.3%
2041	56.7	10.1	9.7	3.3	13.0	2.9	3.0	6.0	81.6	143.9%
2042	58.9	10.5	10.4	3.5	13.9	3.4	3.3	6.6	88.2	149.8%
2043	61.1	10.9	11.3	3.6	14.9	4.0	3.5	7.5	95.8	156.7%
2044	63.3	11.3	12.2	3.7	15.9	4.6	3.8	8.5	104.2	164.6%
2045	65.7	11.8	13.2	3.9	17.1	5.3	4.2	9.4	113.6	173.0%
2046	68.1	12.3	14.2	4.0	18.2	5.9	4.5	10.4	124.1	182.2%
2047	70.5	12.8	15.4	4.2	19.6	6.8	5.0	11.7	135.8	192.6%
2048	73.1	13.3	16.6	4.3	20.9	7.6	5.4	13.0	148.9	203.6%
2049	75.7	13.8	17.9	4.5	22.4	8.6	6.0	14.5	163.4	215.8%
2050	78.4	14.4	19.3	4.6	23.9	9.5	6.5	16.1	179.5	228.9%
2051	81.2	15.0	20.7	4.8	25.5	10.5	7.2	17.7	197.1	242.8%

This is my latest forecast.  It shows the 150% of GDP mark being reached in 2043, which is 2 years earlier than the last time I did this forecast in June 2025.  The 110% mark, which I now think is important, will be reached in 2031.

The numbers seem a little high after about 2040 so I will need to double-check my math.  But you can see that once things start to really fall apart that the collapse accelerates. Interest compounds on itself and the growth in spending continues to outpace the growth of revenues.

Everyone seems to just assume that the situation will magically fix itself before it gets that bad.  But the entitlement spending will continue to rapidly increase, and the so-called discretionary spending, which includes military, is increasing faster than revenue as well. 

So here it is, maybe flawed, but I am sticking with it until I can look at it some more.

One of my sources is the latest CBO projection, here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105

I should run this through ChatGPT and see what it comes up with.

FEMA Regions

 

Since I am interested in regional maps, here is the map of FEMA regions and the headquarters of each:

1 - Boston

2 - New York

3 - Philadelphia

4 - Atlanta

5 - Chicago

6 - Denton, TX (near Dallas/Ft Worth)

7 - Kansas City

8 - Denver

9 - Oakland

10 - Bothell, WA (near Seattle)

Proposed Map

 I got this from Instagram somewhere and took a screenshot.  This supposedly came from a PowerPoint presentation. 

But it is an interesting idea - what if the US were split into 7 different countries (9 if you make Alaska and Hawaii each independent)?  What would these countries be called and what would be the capital of each?

1. Atlantica - Albany, NY

2. Southeast Confederacy - Columbia, SC (or Raleigh, NC)

3. Midwest Federation - Springfield, IL (or Indianapolis, IN)

4. Cajun Wastelands (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama) - Baton Rouge, LA. 

5. New Republic of Texas -  Lubbock, TX

6. Sequoyah (Native American Governed State) - Billings, Montana

7. Cascadia - Carson City, NV

Will the military spend $1.5 Trillion in FY 2027?

 This came out in January but I didn't notice, and I think it is newsworthy.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday suggested that his administration will request $1.5 trillion in military spending for fiscal 2027. That request would be a record high by far, exceeding recent annual defense budgets by hundreds of billions of dollars. “After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.   https://defensescoop.com/2026/01/07/trump-calls-for-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-2027/

Here is an Op-Ed by Mike Pence, former VP:  While America remains the leader of the free world and the arsenal of democracy, the international framework of free nations built after World War II is under its greatest strain in generations. Russia is waging a brutal war of conquest in Europe, shattering borders by force and daring the West to respond. China is intensifying its military pressure on Taiwan, conducting large-scale exercises that simulate encirclement and invasion. Iran, weakened but still deadly like a wounded predator, is threatening to exact revenge on America and Israel. The United States must meet these challenges with strength and resolve. President Donald Trump’s proposal to raise America’s defense budget to $1.5 trillion is an absolute necessity in a world that has grown more violent and more dangerous in recent years. At a moment when authoritarian regimes are probing for weakness, the United States must ensure that its armed forces remain unquestionably capable of deterring aggression — and, if deterrence fails, of winning decisively.  Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/opinion/2026-02-01/america-needs-trump-defense-budget-20595728.html

The president recently announced his desire for a $1.5 trillion defense budget in fiscal year 2027, which would represent a substantial increase of $600 billion over current figures. As large a sum as that is, it is money the department could realistically use to address shortfalls in modernization and readiness. See also https://www.aei.org/op-eds/to-finance-the-1-5t-defense-budget-push-for-600b-in-reconciliation/

Meanwhile, it looks like a full-blown war has just started with Iran.  So Trump, the supposed peace-lover, may get his wish.   And of course a $600 billion increase in spending will blow up projections of future spending, so there is no point in projecting anything until we figure out if this is actually happening.  

Projected GDP through 2046

 See this from a year ago at https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2025/02/projected-gdp-through-2040.html

The actual GDP as of 3Q 2025 (9/30/2025) is 31,098.0 trillion (BEA).  I am using numbers from the Social Security trustee report, but they show 30,480 as of the same date, using intermediate assumptions.

To make this simple, I am using the Social Security numbers, but adding $600 billion to them, and then rounding to the nearest hundred billion.  I think the Social Security numbers use a calendar year instead of fiscal year but I am ignoring that.

		SS 2025	Adjust
Year	Prev	GDP	Round	CBO
2025	30,600	30,480	31,100 30,700
2026	31,900	31,754	32,400 32,300
2027	33,200	33,058	33,700 33,700
2028	34,600	34,455	35,100 35,000
2029	36,100	35,907	36,500 36,400
2030	37,600	37,377	38,000 37,700
2031	39,200	38,903	39,500 39,200
2032	40,800	40,497	41,100 40,700
2033	42,500	42,145	42,700 42,200
2034	44,300	43,836	44,400 43,800
2035	46,200	45,586	46,200 45,400
2036	48,100	47,409	48,000 47,100
2037	50,100	49,305	49,900 48,900
2038	52,200	51,277	51,900 50,800
2039	54,400	53,328	53,900 52,700
2040	56,700	55,363	56,000 54,700
2041	59,100	57,578	58,200 56,700
2042	61,600	59,881	60,500 58,900
2043	64,200	62,276	62,900 61,100
2044	66,900	64,767	65,400 63,300
2045	69,700	67,136	67,700 65,700
2046		69,821	70,400 68,100

	CBO
2047    70,500
2048    73,100                       
2049    75,700
2050    78,400
2051    81,200
2052    84,000
2053    87,000
2054    90,100
2055    93,200
2056    96,500

It looks like before that SS was assuming GDP would increase by 4.2% annually, whereas here it is 4%.  So after 2035 the GDP here is less than it was forecasted a year ago.

Update 3/9/26: I added a column for CBO.  This comes from https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/57054-2026-02-LTBO-econ.xlsx (tab 3. Econ Vars_Annual Levels, row 9 Nominal GDP).  I will use these numbers because they seem to be more accurate (no need to add $600 billion) and also they extend through 2056.

Half your income just to pay interest

 I saw this Zerohedge article and want to briefly comment on it.  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-02-25/half-your-income-just-pay-interest-64-trillion-granddaddy-all-fiascos-warns-peter

In a February 2026 bombshell, Peter Grandich dropped the fiscal hammer: U.S. debt racing toward $64 TRILLION, with interest payments metastasizing into the trillions per year. Translation? Washington’s tab could siphon off HALF your income just to feed the bond market beast.

I have not watched the video or seen his source but assume it is true, that when the national debt hits $64 trillion, that half of all tax payments will go towards interest.  

So when will this occur?  By 2036, in 10 years from now, according to the CBO.

Q4 2025 GDP is $31.49 trillion

 As usual, the BEA is late with this and hides the actual data.  If you just read the first paragraph of the press release, it says: "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December)".

To get the actual number, go to Related Materials, Tables Only, Table 3, to see 31,490.1.  Even so, this says "Seasonally adjusted".  I would prefer my numbers un-seasonally adjusted, but there is no way to do so, so this is the best we can do.

The Debt to the Public as of 12/31/25 was $30.85 trillion, so the ratio is 98.0%.

As of 12/31/25, this ratio was 97.0% (28.8 / 29.7).  So Debt to the Public increased by 2.05 trillion, while GDP increased by 1.8 trillion.

========================

So net interest on the national debt is currently $351B for the first 4 months of this fiscal year 2026 (Oct to Jan).  The annual interest, if you multiply it by 3, is $1.053 trillion.  That is 3.3% of GDP.  The Federal Reserve rate is 3.5% to 3.75%.  If we use the 3.5%, the interest as a percent of GDP is still less than this number.  

By 2031, the interest percent of GDP will be larger than the rate- imagine 3.85% of GDP (if Debt to GDP is 110%).  In today's numbers this would be $1.2 trillion annual interest.

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Here is an unrelated article about the growth of the national debt by 2036 to 120% of GDP

https://reason.com/2026/02/19/u-s-to-spend-24-4-trillion-more-than-it-has-over-the-next-decade-report-warns/

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And another unrelated article about UFOs and Extra-Terrestrials:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15576229/Trump-secret-government-files-aliens.html

The Point of No Return is October 1, 2031

 This post is inspired by an article I recently read (I didn't save the link) that said that Social Security will run out on October 1, 2031.  After this point, Social Security will either have to be cut or the shortfall will have to come out of the general budget.  I think it will be the latter, since it will be politically impossible to cut Social Security payments.

Now review a blog post I published in 2023: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-point-of-no-return-is-october-1-2028.html , laying out specific criteria for what I call the Point of No Return.

So I will revisit them and revise the date:

1. The debt held by the public will exceed 100% of GDP.  This ratio will be hit as early as the end of this fiscal year when it may be at 100.6%.  By the end of FY 2028, it should be 104.1%.  By the end of FY 2031, the CBO projects it will be at 109.6%.  So I am being very conservative.  The reason why this matters, whichever date you chose, it that it is a multiplier.  For example, if the Fed rates are at 4% and the ratio is 110%, this means that interest will consume 4.4% of GPD.  The percent of GDP it consumes is greater than the rate. 

2. Interest will exceed $1 trillion per year.  I think we are already there.  Push that up to $1.5 trillion per year.  If it ever exceeds that number we are in serious trouble.  This should occur in FY 2031.

3. Net Interest paid exceeds the primary deficit.  We are already there.

4. The Debt/GDP ratio increases at least 2% per year.  This hasn't happened yet, since GDP continues to increase. But the increase from FY 2027 to FY 2028 will be about 2%.  And the big danger is FY 2032 to FY 2033 when it will increase from 111.5% to 114.0%, according to the last CBO report.

So what is my conclusion?  That we can pretty much ignore this issue on a practical basis until 2031.  After that, the country is certainly doomed.  Probably we are facing hyperinflation, which is inflation over 40% per year, at which point prices double every 2 years.