March 2026 Forecast

 

		Tax	Spend	Spend	Tot Sp	Primary		Total	Debt to	Debt %
Year	GDP	Rev	Other	SS	x Int	Deficit	Int	Deficit	Public	GDP
2025	30.7	5.2	4.4	1.6	6.0	0.8	1.0	1.8	30.3	98.7%
2026	32.3	5.6	4.7	1.7	6.4	0.8	1.2	2.1	32.4	100.2%
2027	33.7	5.9	4.8	1.8	6.6	0.7	1.3	2.0	34.4	102.0%
2028	35.0	6.1	5.0	1.9	6.9	0.8	1.4	2.2	36.6	104.6%
2029	36.4	6.3	5.1	2.0	7.1	0.8	1.5	2.3	38.9	106.8%
2030	37.7	6.6	5.3	2.1	7.4	0.8	1.6	2.4	41.2	109.3%
2031	39.2	6.9	5.4	2.2	7.6	0.7	1.6	2.3	43.6	111.2%
2032	40.7	7.1	5.6	2.3	7.9	0.8	1.7	2.5	46.1	113.3%
2033	42.2	7.4	6.0	2.4	8.4	1.0	1.8	2.8	49.0	116.0%
2034	43.8	7.7	6.1	2.5	8.6	0.9	2.0	2.9	51.8	118.3%
2035	45.4	8.0	6.2	2.6	8.8	0.8	2.1	2.9	54.7	120.5%
2036	47.1	8.3	6.6	2.7	9.3	1.0	2.2	3.2	57.9	122.9%
2037	48.9	8.6	7.0	2.9	9.9	1.3	2.3	3.6	61.5	125.8%
2038	50.8	8.9	7.6	3.0	10.6	1.7	2.5	4.2	65.7	129.4%
2039	52.7	9.3	8.2	3.1	11.3	2.0	2.6	4.7	70.4	133.6%
2040	54.7	9.7	8.9	3.2	12.1	2.4	2.8	5.2	75.6	138.3%
2041	56.7	10.1	9.7	3.3	13.0	2.9	3.0	6.0	81.6	143.9%
2042	58.9	10.5	10.4	3.5	13.9	3.4	3.3	6.6	88.2	149.8%
2043	61.1	10.9	11.3	3.6	14.9	4.0	3.5	7.5	95.8	156.7%
2044	63.3	11.3	12.2	3.7	15.9	4.6	3.8	8.5	104.2	164.6%
2045	65.7	11.8	13.2	3.9	17.1	5.3	4.2	9.4	113.6	173.0%
2046	68.1	12.3	14.2	4.0	18.2	5.9	4.5	10.4	124.1	182.2%
2047	70.5	12.8	15.4	4.2	19.6	6.8	5.0	11.7	135.8	192.6%
2048	73.1	13.3	16.6	4.3	20.9	7.6	5.4	13.0	148.9	203.6%
2049	75.7	13.8	17.9	4.5	22.4	8.6	6.0	14.5	163.4	215.8%
2050	78.4	14.4	19.3	4.6	23.9	9.5	6.5	16.1	179.5	228.9%
2051	81.2	15.0	20.7	4.8	25.5	10.5	7.2	17.7	197.1	242.8%

This is my latest forecast.  It shows the 150% of GDP mark being reached in 2043, which is 2 years earlier than the last time I did this forecast in June 2025.  The 110% mark, which I now think is important, will be reached in 2031.

The numbers seem a little high after about 2040 so I will need to double-check my math.  But you can see that once things start to really fall apart that the collapse accelerates. Interest compounds on itself and the growth in spending continues to outpace the growth of revenues.

Everyone seems to just assume that the situation will magically fix itself before it gets that bad.  But the entitlement spending will continue to rapidly increase, and the so-called discretionary spending, which includes military, is increasing faster than revenue as well. 

So here it is, maybe flawed, but I am sticking with it until I can look at it some more.

One of my sources is the latest CBO projection, here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105

I should run this through ChatGPT and see what it comes up with.