Gold prices have been increasing at the rate of 25-30% per year. What if they increase at an average rate of 20%/year? This could easily continue at this rate because of ongoing quantitative easing.
So I will stick my neck out and forecast the following gold prices. This is based on a price of $1621/oz on 9/30/3011, and is rounded. Dates are as 9/30 of each year to match the end of the US fiscal year.
2011 1,620
2012 1,950
2013 2,350
2014 2,800
2015 3,300
2016 4,000
2017 4,800
2018 5,800
2019 7,000
2020 8,400
2021 10,000
2022 12,000
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Update: "over the last 11 years - the gold price has risen in US dollar terms at an average annual rate of appreciation of 17%." If there is 17% appreciation, the numbers look like this:
2011 1,620
2012 1,900
2013 2,200
2014 2,600
2015 3,100
2016 3,600
2017 4,200
2018 4,900
2019 5,700
2020 6,700
2021 7,800
2022 9,100
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold. Show all posts
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Warren Buffett: Gold has no value
"Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has dismissed gold as a valueless asset saying that it has no inherent value. In an article for Fortune magazine, Buffett said that gold investors were pinning their hopes on future demand.
He warned that gold was a self-inflating bubble, created by investors desperate for a viable alternative to property and shares.
The famous investor warned that investors in gold would be left with egg on their face when the price eventually crashed.
"Bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop," he said. "And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9074670/Warren-Buffett-gold-has-no-value.html
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9074670/Warren-Buffett-gold-has-no-value.html
Monday, January 30, 2012
Why are the Chinese buying gold?
" The best explanation is that individuals in China are using gold as a substitute for capital flight. .. Not every Chinese citizen is in the position to export cash, so the next best tactic for the nervous is to buy gold, a refuge from plunging property prices and declining stock markets as well as an anticipated depreciation of their currency."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/01/29/why-are-the-chinese-buying-record-quantities-of-gold/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/01/29/why-are-the-chinese-buying-record-quantities-of-gold/
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