The 18 year cycle dates back to 1836. The formula is seven years of slow steady growth, a short recession, seven years of rapid growth, then a four year crash.
Real estate prices peaked in June 2022, so the 4 year crash should be over now. However, an economist noted that the drop in prices has been slower than typical and came up with a new date for the housing bottom: February 2027.
However, if the last bottom was in 2012, and if the peak is really in December 2026, (because median prices have increased slightly since a year ago), then the next bottom won't happen until about February 2030.
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