The federal government incurred a deficit of $28 billion in September 2026, CBO estimates, compared with a surplus of $198 billion recorded in September 2025—a difference of $226 billion. Revenues were $14 billion more this September than they were last September; outlays increased by $240 billion.
The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion [actually $1,993 million] in fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $218 billion more than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2025.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-10/61985-MBR.pdf
The debt owed to the public as of 9/30/26 was $32.425 trillion, and the GDP as of 6/30/26 was $32.5 trillion, so the debt to GDP ratio is 99.8%. The GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter of 2026 will be released in about a month and I will update this ratio then.
This ratio was 100% a year ago, based on GDP of $30.3 trillion and debt to the public of $30.3 trillion so it really hasn't changed.
The debt to the public increased by about $2.15 trillion between 9/30/25 and 9/30/26, which is about a 7.1% increase.
My projections are for the debt to the public to increase about $2.1 to $2.2 trillion for the next 4 years, with bigger deficits starting about 2031. The big danger on the horizon is for the Social Security Trust Fund to be depleted about 2033, but I think Congress will just pay the shortfall out of the general fund instead of actually cutting benefits.
