Deficit of $28 billion in September

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $28 billion in September 2026, CBO estimates, compared with a surplus of $198 billion recorded in September 2025—a difference of $226 billion. Revenues were $14 billion more this September than they were last September; outlays increased by $240 billion.

The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion [actually $1,993 million] in fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $218 billion more than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2025. 

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-10/61985-MBR.pdf

The debt owed to the public as of 9/30/26 was $32.425 trillion, and the GDP as of 6/30/26 was $32.5 trillion, so the debt to GDP ratio is 99.8%.  The GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter of 2026 will be released in about a month and I will update this ratio then.  

This ratio was 100% a year ago, based on GDP of $30.3 trillion and debt to the public of $30.3 trillion so it really hasn't changed.

The debt to the public increased by about $2.15 trillion between 9/30/25 and 9/30/26, which is about a 7.1% increase.

My projections are for the debt to the public to increase about $2.1 to $2.2 trillion for the next 4 years, with bigger deficits starting about 2031.  The big danger on the horizon is for the Social Security Trust Fund to be depleted about 2033, but I think Congress will just pay the shortfall out of the general fund instead of actually cutting benefits.

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Why were outlays so much higher this year than last? The 3 biggest percent increases were: Department of Education (up 117%); Interest (up 11%); Dept of Veterans Affairs (up 10%).

Why did the Dept of Education spending increase so much?  That should be the topic of another post.

The Net Interest on the Public Debt was 1,143 billion in FY 2026, up 115 billion from FY 2026, an increase of 11%.  

If this continues to increase at 11% per year, when will it exceed $2 trillion per year?  That would be in 2032, about the time that Social Security reform will be very important.  So the deficit will really skyrocket after 2032, from the relatively tame $2 trillion per year now, to over $3 trillion per year in 2033 and increasing at least $200 billion per year.