Saturday, October 24, 2026

The annual deficit will be $5 trillion per year by 2034

 can you tell me the government deficit for the last 5 years, for fiscal year 2022 through fiscal year 2026 (which ended September 30, 2026)?

Yes—here are the U.S. federal budget deficits for fiscal years 2022–2026, in nominal dollars, rounded to the nearest billion:

Fiscal year ended September 30Deficit
2022$1,374 billion ($1.374 trillion)
2023$1,687 billion ($1.687 trillion)
2024$1,815 billion ($1.815 trillion)
2025$1,775 billion ($1.775 trillion)
2026$1,992 billion ($1.992 trillion)

The 2022–2025 figures reflect the updated historical series published by the Federal Reserve using OMB data; earlier reports may show slightly different amounts because of revisions. The 2026 figure is Treasury’s reported year-end result. St. Louis Fed

The deficit increased by approximately $217 billion, or 12.2%, in FY2026 compared with FY2025. A deficit is the amount spending exceeded revenue during that year, rather than the total outstanding national debt.

 Now project the deficits out through fiscal year 2035 assuming that they will increase 12.2% every year. I know there are a lot of other projections and factors that go into this but I am just looking at the recent trend.

Starting with the FY2026 deficit of $1.992 trillion, and increasing it by 12.2% each year, the projection is:

Fiscal yearProjected annual deficit
2026 — starting amount$1.992 trillion
2027$2.235 trillion
2028$2.508 trillion
2029$2.814 trillion
2030$3.157 trillion
2031$3.542 trillion
2032$3.974 trillion
2033$4.459 trillion
2034$5.003 trillion
2035$5.613 trillion

Formula: Annual deficit = $1.992 trillion × 1.122^(year − 2026).

Under this assumption, the annual deficit would roughly double in six years and reach 2.82 times its FY2026 level by FY2035. This is a compounded trend projection using your assumption.

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