Saturday, February 28, 2026

Projected GDP through 2046

 See this from a year ago at https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2025/02/projected-gdp-through-2040.html

The actual GDP as of 3Q 2025 (9/30/2025) is 31,098.0 trillion (BEA).  I am using numbers from the Social Security trustee report, but they show 30,480 as of the same date, using intermediate assumptions.

To make this simple, I am using the Social Security numbers, but adding $600 billion to them, and then rounding to the nearest hundred billion.  I think the Social Security numbers use a calendar year instead of fiscal year but I am ignoring that.

		SS 2025	Adjusted
Year	Prev	GDP	Rounded
2025	30,600	30,480	31,100
2026	31,900	31,754	32,400
2027	33,200	33,058	33,700
2028	34,600	34,455	35,100
2029	36,100	35,907	36,500
2030	37,600	37,377	38,000
2031	39,200	38,903	39,500
2032	40,800	40,497	41,100
2033	42,500	42,145	42,700
2034	44,300	43,836	44,400
2035	46,200	45,586	46,200
2036	48,100	47,409	48,000
2037	50,100	49,305	49,900
2038	52,200	51,277	51,900
2039	54,400	53,328	53,900
2040	56,700	55,363	56,000
2041	59,100	57,578	58,200
2042	61,600	59,881	60,500
2043	64,200	62,276	62,900
2044	66,900	64,767	65,400
2045	69,700	67,136	67,700
2046		69,821	70,400

It looks like before that SS was assuming GDP would increase by 4.2% annually, whereas here it is 4%.  So after 2035 the GDP here is less than it was forecasted a year ago.

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