More on Medicaid

I just realized that we should be looking at the total Medicaid projected expenditures, not just the Federal portion. It really is a federal program that the states are sort of coerced to share in the cost.  Since I am looking at total systemic debt, the total 10-year Medicaid cost should be included. Here is the 10-year total cost in red:

Source:https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Research/ActuarialStudies/downloads/MedicaidReport2012.pdf , page 22.

This is so outdated that it includes 2012 in the projections.  But it's the latest hard data that we have.  The 2012 report was released about March 1, 2013, so the next one won't be out for another 9 months.

The total ten-year cost is 5576.9 billion.  Instead of looking at the specific years, I am looking at a reasonable estimate for 10 years worth of expenditures.  Rounding this to $5.6 trillion, it makes total systemic debt $87.2 trillion.

This is a huge number.  But on the bright side, it isn't increasing very fast.  A little inflation would make it easier to pay down or keep current with the debts.  But in our debt-based system, how do you cause inflation?  The only way is through government deficit spending in categories other than entitlement spending, which are already included in the total.  Maybe that is a partial explanation of why we don't have inflation and  even have a little deflation.  Creditors (and by this I include beneficiaries of entitlements) want paid back.

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What was the previous number?  The previous 2012 systemic debt was $81.9 trillion, plus the $5.6 trillion for Medicaid, gives a revised 12/31/12 systemic debt total of $87.5 trillion.  Yea that's higher than the current number, due to revised estimates for unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities.

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Using the 2011 Medicaid Report, the 10 year total is 6637.1 billion or $6.6 trillion, so it actually decreased by $1 trillion in one year.  Adding this to the previously calculated 2011 systemic debt of $79.1 trillion gives a revised 12/31/11 systemic debt total of $85.7 trillion.

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What about 2010?  The 10 year total from the 2010 Medicaid Report is 5994.0 billion or $6.0 trillion.  Adding this to the previously calculated 2010 systemic debt of $73.5 trillion gives a revised 12/31/10 systemic debt total of $79.5 trillion.

So the increase from 2010 to 2011 was 6.2 trillion.  What caused this?  Mostly an increase in the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.