https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52480-ltbo.pdf
This report does not use the word "unsustainable", which previous reports did. I found this interesting quote:
CBO
also assessed the effects of larger budget deficits so that
cumulative deficits (excluding interest payments and
macroeconomic feedback) would be $2 trillion or
$4 trillion greater through 2027 than they would be
under the extended baseline.
On those paths—after accounting for the economic
effects of the increase in debt—federal debt would be
substantially higher than CBO projects in the extended
baseline. For the +$2 trillion path, federal debt would
equal 202 percent of GDP in 2047; the +$4 trillion path
would result in federal debt exceeding 250 percent of
GDP in that year.
By
2047, net interest costs would be 6.2 percent of GDP,
raising total federal spending to more than 29 percent of
GDP.
Either the $2 trillion or $4 trillion path would be a big problem. That sounds like a lot of money, but over ten years, it is only $200 or $400 billion per year. A recession, which almost certainly will start next year, will cause a huge increase in spending, and put us on that $4 trillion path.
There is also a discussion in that report on what would happen if Social Security benefits were paid from the general revenues.
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