Ok, I don't have any inside information or secret wisdom about this. But I am thinking about the parallels between Richard Nixon and Donald Trump. I don't care about the politics of this, but I wonder if there are some economic parallels.
LBJ was famous for the Civil Rights Act of 1974. Under Obama, the Supreme Court voted to require homosexual marriage in 2015. Nixon ran on a platform of "law and order" and his supporters were motivated by the desire to change the Supreme Court, which happened with the replacement of Earl Warren with Warren Earl Burger, who was supposedly a conservative (but voted for Roe v Wade). And of course, Trump supporters are motivated by the desire to change the Supreme Court, with Neil Gorsuch being appointed and Brett Kavanaugh under consideration.
Jump ahead to the theory of a 48-year cycle.
January 11, 1973, the DJIA hit a cycle high of 1051.70. It then dropped 10% within a month and entered into a massive bear market with a low of 577 in December 6 1974 and did not exceed the 1973 milestone until 1982. The recession officially began in November 1973 and it lasted until March 1975. But then stagflation continued until 1982.
Suppose the 48 year cycle matches exactly (of course it won't) ? Then we can predict these key dates:
November 2020 - Trump re-elected
January 11, 2021 - DJIA hits all-time high.
November 2021 - Recession officially begins
August 8, 2022 - Trump resigns instead of facing impeachment
December 6, 2022 - DJIA hits low
March 2023 - Recession officially over
2023 to 2030 - New president faces Great Malaise. Even through the recession is over, it feels like it is continuing.
So what I am predicting from this superficial analysis is that the Good Times under our favorite president will last about another 2 years, before we sink into a 10 year period of Great Recession / Great Malaise. (And then we will go back to a brief period of "normalcy" before everything goes to hyper-inflationary hell a al Venezuela).
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