Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Updated Coronavirus Projections

This is my prediction of coronavirus deaths in the US.  The actual numbers will probably be less than this:

Date Deaths Total
04/01/20 1,049 5,102
04/02/20 974 6,076
04/03/20 1,045 7,121
04/04/20 1,330 8,451
04/05/20 1,165 9,616
04/06/20 1,255 10,871
04/07/20 1,443 12,314
04/08/20 1,659 13,973
04/09/20 1,908 15,881
04/10/20 2,194 18,075
04/11/20 2,304 20,379
04/12/20 2,419 22,798
04/13/20 2,540 25,338
04/14/20 2,610 27,948
04/15/20 2,637 30,585
04/16/20 2,505 33,090
04/17/20 2,380 35,470
04/18/20 2,261 37,731
04/19/20 2,148 39,879
04/20/20 2,041 41,920
04/21/20 1,939 43,859
04/22/20 1,842 45,701
04/23/20 1,750 47,451
04/24/20 1,663 49,114
04/25/20 1,580 50,694
04/26/20 1,501 52,195
04/27/20 1,426 53,621
04/28/20 1,355 54,976
04/29/20 1,104 56,080
04/30/20 1,044 57,124
05/01/20 971 58,095
05/02/20 909 59,004
05/03/20 850 59,854
05/04/20 786 60,640
05/05/20 726 61,366
05/06/20 671 62,037
05/07/20 636 62,673
05/08/20 570 63,243
05/09/20 525 63,768
05/10/20 470 64,238
05/11/20 440 64,678
05/12/20 389 65,067
05/13/20 351 65,418
05/14/20 309 65,727
05/15/20 277 66,004
05/16/20 248 66,252
05/17/20 213 66,465
05/18/20 192 66,657
05/19/20 169 66,826
05/20/20 146 66,972
05/21/20 124 67,096
05/22/20 108 67,204
05/23/20 94 67,298

The peak deaths will be on April 15, although this may have already occurred on April 4.  The pandemic will be completely over on May 23 with less than 100 deaths.

The figures originally came from http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america but I modified them.

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Update:  This forecast, published on 4/7/20, showed that the peak was 2637 deaths on April 15.  The coronavirus deaths did peak on April 15 at 2618 deaths.  That was extremely accurate, but I can't take credit for it because I was repeating the info.

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