There are only 7 swing states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And Biden is going to win all of them except North Carolina. I could be wrong, I hope I am wrong, but this is how I see it as of today.
The biggest swing group is white Catholics and they didn't like Hillary. Biden is one of them. He is from Scranton, PA, a state he has locked up.
Let's say Trump wins Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. That's still only 260 electoral votes. Where will the other 9 come from? Wisconsin? Biden is ahead 47.7 to 42.3 there.
Update:
This post, from a far-right commentator, thinks Trump has a zero percent chance of winning Florida in November.
Update 2: Ohio should also be considered a battleground state. The latest poll there shows a tie (44.7 to 44.7). They have voted for the national winner every time except one since 1944. I am going to keep it in the Trump category for now, but this could easily go either way.
Update 3: A recent poll in Georgia shows Biden in the lead 47 to 45. I don't think Biden will win Georgia, but it is within the margin of error, so Georgia should be considered a battleground state as well.
Also, Maine shows a little red, but I doubt it, so that gives another point to Biden.
And North Carolina is leaning towards Biden. But now Pennsylvania seems wide open, so I will temporarily swap them. Result: Even if Trump wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, heck lets give him Florida too, but not North Carolina, Biden still wins 285 to 253.
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