Here is my latest deficit projection. The long term forecasts from the CBO use percentages of GDP, so I included more columns showing receipts and expenditures as a percent of GDP. Also, I rounded numbers to the nearest $50 billion (anything smaller is a rounding error). This shows the 150% mark exceeded in 2039, which is 4 years sooner than last years forecast, so this is a significant deterioration. The good news is that the GDP projections are higher (because of inflation). The bad news is that expenditures separate from interest are much higher (also because of inflation). And of course the interest amounts paid are much higher.
What do I think will happen in 2039? Well we can't know the year exactly, but at some point the entire dollar based system will veer off into hyperinflation, and it will have to be replaced with something else. So I don't see how our system can continue past 2039. And that is a relatively optimistic forecast. It is showing that interest rates in 2039 will only be 4.5% and they are already higher than that. So I expect the next forecast to be even earlier than 2039. Another thing is that Social Security will run out of money in 2034, and I expect it to remain fully funded, so this will add to the primary deficit, and that is not accounted for here.
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