Every time since 1980 that the 10Y-2Y yield curve is negative, then become positive, a recession occurs. Furthermore, this occurs right when the 10Y-2Y hits +0.5.
Read also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/20/hard-landing-10y-2y-yield-curve-suggests-coming-recession/
Today, 11/7/24, the 10Y yield is at 4.3% and the 2Y yield is at 4.2%, so this is +0.1. If the Fed cuts rates again on 12/17/24 by another 0.25% as I just predicted, then this will almost be enough to push the economy into recession. Or maybe it is a coincidental indicator not a cause of it - "correlation does not equal causation". If the Fed cuts rates again on January 30, 2025, then this will almost certainly signal that a recession has occurred (or cause it, depending on your point of view).
I think that the Fed is following the 17 year script and will lead us right into a recession, which I am guessing will start on February 1, 2025, just as Trump takes office as a "present" for him.
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