Since the debt limit has been frozen on March 2 and this will continue until about October 1, when it is expected to be raised, we can't look at the Debt Held by the Public to see how the economic situation is deteriorating. So instead I will use a new, easy to calculate number I call the Burn Rate. This is made up of two numbers, Medicare Expenditures and Net Interest.
The federal budget mostly pays for itself except for these categories and they are the ones that will cause the most problem in the future.
October 2018:
Medicare $53B, Net Interest $32B, Total $85B.
November 2018:
Medicare $77B, Net Interest $33B, Total $110B.
December 2018:
Medicare $24B, Net Interest $34B, Total $58B.
January 2019:
Medicare $51B, Net Interest $29B, Total $80B.
February 2019:
Medicare $52B, Net Interest $25B, Total $77B.
Obviously there were some timing differences in November and December and the total is about $80 billion per month.
Update:
March 2019:
Medicare $53B, Net Interest $37B, Total $90B
Source: https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0319.pdf
Net interest is projected to be $383B for the fiscal year, or about $32B per month, so any month that exceeds that (like March) is a warning sign.
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