New Projection: Crisis in 2043

								Memo	Memo	Memo
				Debt		Debt %		Medicare	SS	Net
Year	Revenues	Outlays	Deficit	Public	GDP	of GDP		Shortfall	Shortfall	Interest
2018	3,329	4,108	-779	15,751	20,236	77.8%				325
2019	3,515	4,412	-897	16,636	21,252	78.3%				383
2020	3,686	4,589	-903	17,601	22,120	79.6%				460
2021	3,841	4,815	-974	18,626	22,939	81.2%				521
2022	4,012	5,140	-1,128	19,795	23,778	83.2%				581
2023	4,208	5,346	-1,139	20,976	24,672	85.0%				637
2024	4,448	5,539	-1,091	22,112	25,642	86.2%				684
2025	4,647	5,860	-1,213	23,325	26,656	87.5%				724
2026	4,956	6,212	-1,256	24,581	27,667	88.8%		51.9		772
2027	5,254	6,504	-1,250	25,831	28,738	89.9%		57.3		821
2028	5,447	6,944	-1,497	27,328	29,862	91.5%		62.7		876
2029	5,672	7,266	-1,594	28,922	31,006	93.3%		68.1		928
2030	5,897	7,548	-1,651	30,573	32,246	94.8%		73.5		928
2031	6,122	7,907	-1,785	32,358	33,536	96.5%		78.9		994
2032	6,347	8,815	-2,468	34,825	34,877	99.9%		84.3	537	1,058
2033	6,572	9,252	-2,680	37,505	36,273	103.4%		89.7	566	1,146
2034	6,797	9,720	-2,923	40,429	37,723	107.2%		95.1	604	1,241
2035	7,022	10,220	-3,198	43,627	39,232	111.2%		100.5	647	1,346
2036	7,247	10,732	-3,485	47,111	40,802	115.5%		105.9	677	1,461
2037	7,472	11,294	-3,822	50,934	42,434	120.0%		111.3	730	1,588
2038	7,697	11,873	-4,176	55,109	44,131	124.9%		116.7	768	1,727
2039	7,918	12,490	-4,572	59,681	45,896	130.0%		122.1	812	1,879
2040	8,143	13,135	-4,992	64,673	47,732	135.5%		127.5	850	2,047
2041	8,372	13,818	-5,446	70,119	49,641	141.3%		132.9	889	2,231
2042	8,605	14,543	-5,938	76,057	51,627	147.3%		138.3	929	2,433
2043	8,842	15,305	-6,464	82,521	53,692	153.7%		143.7	966	2,654
2044	9,083	16,130	-7,048	89,569	55,840	160.4%		149.1	1,022	2,896
2045	9,328	16,989	-7,661	97,230	58,074	167.4%		154.5	1,063	3,162
2046	9,578	17,900	-8,322	105,552	60,396	174.8%		159.9	1,105	3,452

I haven't done a debt projection in a really long time.  So here is a new one.  I start with the latest projections from the Congresssional Budget Office.  It only goes through 2029.  Then I extend the columns to the right.  Then I make 2 big adjustments: 1) I add an amount starting in 2026 to make up for the shortfall in Medicare, and 2) I do the same thing for Social Security, starting in 2032.  I think both of these are reasonable assumptions.

The danger line is unknown, but I arbitrarily set it at 150% of GDP.  This happens in 2043.

Something else to look at - when does the debt held by the public exceed certain numbers.  It will first exceed $20 trillion in 2023, $25 trillion in 2027, $30 trillion in 2030, $40 trillion in 2034, $50 trillion in 2037, $70 trillion in 2041 and $100 trillion in 2046.

My last forecast for gloom-and-doom was in 2032.  See: Social Security is now solvent until 2032.  In that projection, I didn't see how the system would survive the depletion of the social security trust fund.  Now I think the shortfall will just come out of the general fund, and the projected amounts are shown above in the SS column.

So, you could say, this is good news, we have another 11 years until the whole system blows up or implodes.