So I took my previous numbers through 2029 (which came from the CBO). Then I used numbers from the 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook through 2048. So these are mostly CBO's numbers. Here is what I came up with:
| Memo | Memo | ||||||||
| Debt | Debt % | Net | SS | ||||||
| Year | Revenues | Outlays | Deficit | Public | GDP | of GDP | Interest | Outlays | |
| 2018 | 3,329 | 4,108 | -779 | 15,751 | 20,236 | 77.8% | 325 | 982 | |
| 2019 | 3,515 | 4,416 | -901 | 16,636 | 21,252 | 78.3% | 383 | 1,039 | |
| 2020 | 3,686 | 4,604 | -918 | 17,601 | 22,120 | 79.6% | 465 | 1,102 | |
| 2021 | 3,841 | 4,830 | -989 | 18,626 | 22,939 | 81.2% | 528 | 1,171 | |
| 2022 | 4,012 | 5,061 | -1,049 | 19,795 | 23,778 | 83.2% | 571 | 1,245 | |
| 2023 | 4,208 | 5,329 | -1,121 | 20,976 | 24,672 | 85.0% | 641 | 1,323 | |
| 2024 | 4,448 | 5,577 | -1,129 | 22,112 | 25,642 | 86.2% | 692 | 1,403 | |
| 2025 | 4,647 | 5,835 | -1,188 | 23,300 | 26,656 | 87.4% | 720 | 1,487 | |
| 2026 | 4,956 | 6,156 | -1,200 | 24,500 | 27,667 | 88.6% | 775 | 1,574 | |
| 2027 | 5,254 | 6,468 | -1,214 | 25,714 | 28,738 | 89.5% | 833 | 1,664 | |
| 2028 | 5,447 | 6,778 | -1,331 | 27,044 | 29,862 | 90.6% | 866 | 1,759 | |
| 2029 | 5,672 | 7,095 | -1,423 | 28,467 | 31,006 | 91.8% | 930 | 1,856 | |
| 2030 | 5,933 | 7,739 | -1,806 | 30,273 | 32,246 | 93.9% | 1,000 | 1,935 | |
| 2031 | 6,204 | 8,149 | -1,945 | 32,218 | 33,536 | 96.1% | 1,073 | 2,012 | |
| 2032 | 6,487 | 8,580 | -2,093 | 34,311 | 34,878 | 98.4% | 1,151 | 2,093 | |
| 2033 | 6,783 | 9,032 | -2,249 | 36,560 | 36,273 | 100.8% | 1,233 | 2,176 | |
| 2034 | 7,092 | 9,506 | -2,414 | 38,974 | 37,724 | 103.3% | 1,320 | 2,301 | |
| 2035 | 7,415 | 10,004 | -2,589 | 41,563 | 39,232 | 105.9% | 1,452 | 2,393 | |
| 2036 | 7,752 | 10,527 | -2,775 | 44,338 | 40,802 | 108.7% | 1,591 | 2,489 | |
| 2037 | 8,105 | 11,075 | -2,970 | 47,308 | 42,434 | 111.5% | 1,740 | 2,588 | |
| 2038 | 8,473 | 11,651 | -3,178 | 50,486 | 44,131 | 114.4% | 1,898 | 2,692 | |
| 2039 | 8,858 | 12,254 | -3,396 | 53,882 | 45,896 | 117.4% | 2,065 | 2,846 | |
| 2040 | 9,260 | 12,888 | -3,628 | 57,510 | 47,732 | 120.5% | 2,243 | 2,959 | |
| 2041 | 9,680 | 13,552 | -3,872 | 61,382 | 49,642 | 123.7% | 2,432 | 3,078 | |
| 2042 | 10,119 | 14,249 | -4,130 | 65,512 | 51,627 | 126.9% | 2,633 | 3,201 | |
| 2043 | 10,577 | 14,980 | -4,403 | 69,915 | 53,692 | 130.2% | 2,846 | 3,329 | |
| 2044 | 11,056 | 15,747 | -4,691 | 74,606 | 55,840 | 133.6% | 3,071 | 3,518 | |
| 2045 | 11,499 | 16,551 | -5,052 | 79,658 | 58,074 | 137.2% | 3,310 | 3,659 | |
| 2046 | 11,959 | 17,394 | -5,435 | 85,093 | 60,397 | 140.9% | 3,563 | 3,805 | |
| 2047 | 12,437 | 18,278 | -5,841 | 90,934 | 62,812 | 144.8% | 3,832 | 3,957 | |
| 2048 | 12,934 | 19,140 | -6,206 | 97,140 | 65,325 | 148.7% | 4,050 | 4,115 | |
| 2049 | 13,452 | 19,906 | -6,454 | 103,594 | 67,938 | 152.5% | 4,212 | 4,280 | |
| 2050 | 13,990 | 20,702 | -6,712 | 110,306 | 70,655 | 156.1% | 4,381 | 4,451 |
My opinion is that the interest costs are too high, because the Fed has the ability to manipulate them somewhat. Notice that the revenue amounts are much higher than I had previously projected. Somehow I am doubtful that Revenue will be 19.8% of GDP in 2048, but that is what I am using. My previous projection didn't account for enough healthcare spending, which will soar.
The next long-term budget outlook should be out in a couple of months, so I will update this then.
Update: The CBO released an updated 10-year forecast through 2029. I'm still waiting on the updated long term forecast.
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