Monday, March 30, 2020

My coronavirus projections

Here is what I think will happen in the US with the current pandemic:

Date
03/29/20
Total Cases
143491
Total Deaths
2583
New Cases
19913
New Deaths
363
03/30/20 163491 2983 20000 400
03/31/20 183491 3383 20000 400
04/01/20 203491 3783 20000 400
04/02/20 223491 4183 20000 400
04/03/20 243491 4583 20000 400
04/04/20 263491 4983 20000 400
04/05/20 283491 5383 20000 400
04/06/20 303491 5783 20000 400
04/07/20 323491 6183 20000 400
04/08/20 343491 6583 20000 400
04/09/20 363491 6983 20000 400
04/10/20 383491 7383 20000 400
04/11/20 403491 7783 20000 400
04/12/20 423491 8183 20000 400
04/13/20 443491 8583 20000 400
04/14/20 463491 8983 20000 400
04/15/20 483491 9383 20000 400
04/16/20 502491 9763 19000 380
04/17/20 520491 10123 18000 360
04/18/20 537491 10463 17000 340
04/19/20 553491 10783 16000 320
04/20/20 568491 11083 15000 300
04/21/20 582491 11363 14000 280
04/22/20 595491 11623 13000 260
04/23/20 607491 11863 12000 240
04/24/20 618491 12083 11000 220
04/25/20 628491 12283 10000 200
04/26/20 637491 12463 9000 180
04/27/20 645491 12623 8000 160
04/28/20 652491 12763 7000 140
04/29/20 658491 12883 6000 120
04/30/20 663491 12983 5000 100

By May 1, the pandemic will be winding down, with just a few thousand new cases per day.  The total number of cases will be less than 700,000 (but at least less than 1 million), and the total number of deaths less than 13,000 (but at least less than 20,000).  Let's see what happens and we will know very quickly.  I will revise this every few days.

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