Monday, March 30, 2020

Updated projections for the Coronavirus

These are projections for the US through April 30:

Date Deaths Total
03/29/20 363 2,583
03/30/20 607 3,190
03/31/20 722 3,912
04/01/20 846 4,758
04/02/20 981 5,739
04/03/20 1,121 6,860
04/04/20 1,264 8,124
04/05/20 1,412 9,536
04/06/20 1,559 11,095
04/07/20 1,700 12,795
04/08/20 1,833 14,628
04/09/20 1,951 16,579
04/10/20 2,052 18,631
04/11/20 2,136 20,767
04/12/20 2,199 22,966
04/13/20 2,241 25,207
04/14/20 2,265 27,472
04/15/20 2,271 29,743
04/16/20 2,261 32,004
04/17/20 2,236 34,240
04/18/20 2,200 36,440
04/19/20 2,154 38,594
04/20/20 2,101 40,695
04/21/20 2,043 42,738
04/22/20 1,982 44,720
04/23/20 1,919 46,639
04/24/20 1,855 48,494
04/25/20 1,791 50,285
04/26/20 1,728 52,013
04/27/20 1,664 53,677
04/28/20 1,601 55,278
04/29/20 1,539 56,817
04/30/20 1,478 58,295

Source: http://covid19.healthdata.org/
and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I think this is too pessimistic but we will know very soon.  It projects the first day with over 1000 deaths in the US to be April 3.

By the way, this model is projecting 15,546 COVID-19 deaths in New York by August 4.

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