See: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56497-CBO-MBR.pdf
The July 2020 deficit was $61 billion, and the fiscal year-to-date deficit was $2.806 trillion. Why was the July deficit so low? It wasn't because of a decrease in spending, no it was because of a huge increase in revenue - but from where? "payment deadlines for individual and corporate income taxes were delayed from April and June to July, so tax receipts were unusually large this July".
So this is a freak event, and August will be back to a "new normal" deficit of about $200 billion. I expect the fiscal year 2020 deficit to be about $3.2 trillion, which is a huge number, but still less than the $4 trillion I previously thought it would be.
The wildcard is if another stimulus bill is passed or if Trump's executive order in lieu of a spending bill is valid and what the cost of it will be.
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