Monday, October 5, 2020

M5 for September 30

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed.  Here is the current measure:

As of 9/30/2020:
M2 (as of 9/21/20) = 18,720.3
Pub Debt (as of 9/30/20) = 21,015.3
Fed held (as of 9/30/20) = -4,438.8
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Total: 35,296.8

On 8/31/20, this was at 34,821.5, so it is up 475.3 or 1.36%.

In an ideal world, you would want this to expand a tiny bit so interest can be paid on debts.  You wouldn't want it to contract.  But you don't want it to expand too fast either, because inflation is a problem.  I would say that the maximum it should expand is 0.58% per month, which would lead to a doubling every 10 years.  (1.0058^120 = 2.0017)

If the rate of 1.36% continues, then this would lead to a doubling in 52 months, which is just over 4 years.

The current trend is UNSUSTAINABLE and will lead to inflation.  1.0135^12 = 1.176, so  this is a rate of 17.6% per year.  And this is without any stimulus.

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