M5 is my measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:
As of 7/31/21:
M2 (as of 6/1/21): 20,388.9
Public Debt (as of 7/30/21): 22,427.7
Fed Held (as of 7/28/21): -5,263.7
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Total: 37,552.9
On 6/30/21, this was at 37,516.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8. For July, this was up only 36.4. For the fiscal year to date, this is up 2,256.10 or 7.67% on an annualized basis. I am arbitrarily putting the danger zone at 8% increase or about $250 billion/mo, so this barely squeaks by as being sustainable.
There are two important numbers I am ignoring in this calculation. First, the cash balance of the Treasury at the Fed. This is about $537 billion as of 7/31/21. Also, the amount of reverse repos with the Fed. This number was about $902 billion at month end.
The debt limit came back to life at month end, and now stands at about $28.5 trillion. It will remain there until raised by Congress, which will probably happen around October 1, when then new fiscal year begins. There could be a government shutdown starting on October 1, unless Congress can agree on a budget and new debt limit.
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