GDP is now $26.15 trillion

 Read:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2022-second-estimate

"Current‑dollar GDP increased 6.7 percent at an annual rate, or $421.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $26.15 trillion."

Debt Held By the Public is now at $24.65 trillion.  So the ratio is 94.3%.  I see the 100% ratio as a red flag, because whatever the percent of interest is paid on the debt is even bigger as a percent of GDP.  In 2023, net interest as a percent of GDP is expected to be about 2.3% ($600 billion / $26 trillion).  But if the interest rate increases (which it has, the short term rate is at 4.3%) and the amount of debt increase, which it obviously will, then it won't take much for the net interest as a percent of GDP to be even higher than the rate.  If we paid 4.3% on $26 trillion, that is $1,118 billion per year.

I expect the next recession to push us over the edge, because this will decrease the GDP slightly, and the government will spend trillions to counteract it.  Even without a recession, the debt to GDP ratio will exceed 100% by 2026, and the Fed will not cut rates.  I just said that I saw October 1, 2028 as a point of no return.  I now think this could be a couple of years earlier.  I will wait for the next forecast by the CBO, which should happen in July or August, to change this forecast.  

But it is clear that the situation is rapidly worsening.  Not because of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, that is just a symptom of the problem, but because the entire system, anchored by the "infallible" United States Government, is imploding.   And I don't see anyone talking about this.

We are not past the point of no return yet, and there is still a slim chance that things could change. But nobody seems to recognize the problem or care.