Are we on a loop, repeating events from 16 years ago? Of course not exactly, but I think things are uncannily close.
Here are the interest rates from 9/28/2007 and 9/28/2023:
Date 6 Mo 1 Yr 3 Yr 10 Yr 30 Yr ========= ===== ==== ==== ===== ===== 09/28/2007 4.09 4.05 4.03 4.59 4.83 09/28/2023 5.53 5.46 4.83 4.59 4.71
The 10 years rates are exactly the same.
Other maybe parallels:
President: George W Bush vs Joe Biden
War: Iraq vs Ukraine
Housing Market: The housing market peaked sometime in 2006. The credit markets froze in the summer of 2007, and a housing crash began in August 2007. vs Now: The housing market peaked about May 2022.
Interest Rates: The Fed rose rates to 5.25% in July 2006 where they stayed until Sept 2007 when they dropped to 4.75. And now the Fed rose rates to 5.25% in July 2023.
Update: 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rise to their highest levels since 2007
Business Cycle: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009.
Stock Market Peak: Oct 9, 2007: DJIA peaks at 14,164. Jan 4, 2022: DJIA hits all time high of 36,800. Aug 1, 2023: DJIA hits 2023 peak of 35,679.
Update: Treasury 10-Year Yield Breaches 5% for First Time Since 2007
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