Saturday, October 7, 2023

Diagnostic

 Here is a checklist of the situation with the government debt.

1. Monthly deficit less than 0.6% of the debt to the public.  (If this is true, then the doubling time is 10 years or more).  For August because there was a surplus, PASS.

2. Debt to the Public less than 101% of GDP.  The Debt to the Public is $26 trillion but the GDP is $26.8 trillion.  PASS.

3. Net interest is less than defense spending.  For August, net interest was $72 billion, but defense spending was $62 billion.  FAIL.

4. Net interest is less than the primary deficit (which is the deficit excluding interest).  For August, because there was a surplus. FAIL.

5. Net interest is less than 25% of tax revenues.  For August, FAIL.

6. Net interest is less than $85 billion for the month. ($85 billion is $1 trillion / 12, rounded up).  PASS.

7. The Debt to GDP ratio is increased less than 2% from the previous year.  The current debt to the public/GDP ratio (as of 9/1/23) is 96.9%.  It was at 92.9% just a few months earlier.  FAIL.

If these are all fails then the situation is completely out of control.  So things aren't that bad, yet.

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