Thursday, October 26, 2023

GDP is now $27.6 trillion

 Current dollar GDP increased 8.5 percent at an annual rate, or $560.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $27.62 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-advance-estimate

Debt to the public is at $26.5 trillion, so the ratio is 96.0%.

The Fed probably thinks this is too high (since most of it is inflation rather than real GDP growth), but this is really really good news from a fiscal sustainability standpoint. For example, the last CBO 10 year forecast released in May 2023 shows the GDP at the end of fiscal year 2024 (i.e. September 30, 2024) is $27,266 billion and we are already much bigger than that one year in advance.

I think the Fed should just let the animal spirits roar and let the good times roll and don't take away the punch bowl while the party is getting going (to mix a few metaphors).  If GDP continues at an 8% annual clip  and the debt increases at only an 6% clip then maybe we can grow ourselves out of this mess a little.

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Update (11/29/23):  The BEA now says that GDP in the 3rd quarter increased at an annual rate of 8.9% to $27.64 trillion.  

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