Deficit of $166 Billion in September

 The government incurred a deficit of $166 billion in September 2023, CBO estimates, $264 billion less than the deficit recorded in September 2022. The federal budget deficit was $1.7 trillion [actually $1.690 trillion] in fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$0.3 trillion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2022. Revenues fell by an estimated $455 billion (or 9 percent). Revenues were smaller than in fiscal year 2022, particularly for nonwitheld income taxes and remittances to the Treasury from the Federal Reserve. Outlays declined by an estimated $141 billion (or 2 percent).

Monthly net interest was $67 billion.  Monthly defense spending was $82 billion (774 - 692).

  Monthly Budget Review: September 2023 (cbo.gov)

How does this stand up against my diagnostic questions?

1. Monthly deficit less than 0.6% of the debt to the public.  (If this is true, then the doubling time is 10 years or more).  The debt held by the public was $26.044 trillion on Sept 1, and 0.6% of this is $156 billion, so FAIL.

2. Debt to the Public less than 101% of GDP.  The Debt to the Public is $26.34 trillion but the GDP is $26.8 trillion.  PASS.

3. Net interest is less than defense spending.  PASS.

4. Net interest is less than the primary deficit (which is the deficit excluding interest). PASS.

5. Net interest is less than 25% of tax revenues.  Tax revenues were $469 billion in September. PASS.

6. Net interest is less than $85 billion for the month. ($85 billion is $1 trillion / 12, rounded up).  PASS.

7. The Debt to GDP ratio is increased less than 2% from the previous year.  The current debt to the public/GDP ratio (as of 10/1/23) is 98.3%.  It was at 92.9% just about six months earlier.  FAIL.

That is more passes than fails. So September was a good month.  But watch this space - the day is coming, not too long from now when these will all be fails.

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Update:  The final numbers show a deficit of $171 billion in September 2023, and a deficit for the year of $1.695 trillion.  This also says that net interest for September was only $29 billion, which seems way too low.

See also https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0923.pdf

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The national debt on 9/30/23 was $33.167 trillion.  One year earlier on 9/30/22 is was $30.929 trillion.  So it increased 7.2% in one year.