Star Wars vs the Wizard of Oz

Luke Skywalker grew up on the a moisture farm on the Planet Tatooine with his uncle Owen Lars and aunt Baru.

Dorothy Gale grew up on a farm in Kansas with her uncle Henry and aunt Em.

Luke Skywalker's aunt and uncle were killed by Imperial Stormtroopers and their farmhouse burned, forcing him to set off on an adventure.

Dorothy's aunt and uncle were hiding in the storm cellar when a tornado picks up the house that Dorothy is in and carries her off to Oz

Luke Skywalker seeks advice from Obi Wan Kenobi.

Dorothy seeks advice from Professor Marvel

Luke Skywalker encounters Sand People, also known as Jawas

Dorothy encounters Munchkins

Luke has as companions, R2-D2, C3PO (gold colored), Chewbacca, and Han Solo

Dorothy has as companions, Toto, The Tin Man, The Cowardly Lion, and the Scarecrow

Star Wars has Darth Vader as a villain, who dresses all in black. He has magic powers, like levitating someone and applying a force choke.

The Wizard of Oz has the Wicked Witch as a villain, who dresses all in black. She has magic powers, like sending fireballs with her fingers.

Luke sees a hologram of Princess Leia, asking for help

Dorothy sees a hologram of the Great and Powerful Oz

Obi One Kenobi is killed by Darth Vader and his body vanishes, leaving only a robe

The Wicked Witch of the West dies when Dorothy throws water on her, leaving only her clothes

At one point in Star Wars, Luke and Han Solo disguise themselves as Stormtroopers

At one point in the Wizard of Oz, the Tin Man, Cowardly Lion and Scarecrow disguise themselves as guards

Star Wars ends with an award ceremony

The Wizard of Oz ends with an award ceremony

The Empire Strikes back has Cloud City

The Wizard of Oz has the Emerald City

Copied from:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76JRk6kgyAk

See also:

Verily, a New Hope (Star Wars written in the style of Shakespeare)

Is Star Wars Racist?

The Force Awakens is A New Hope

Note that Star Wars changed the sex of the hero from female (Dorothy) to male (Luke), whereas the Force Awakens changes the sex back to female (Ren).  The sidekick goes from Toto the dog, to R2D2, to BB-8.  The powerful wizard goes from the Great and Powerful Oz, to Emperor Palpatine, to Supreme Leader Snoke.

Jaguar

Transcript: For decades, Jaguar has been more than a name - it has been a symbol, a symbol of artistry and motion of precision crafted not just for the road but for the soul. Each curve each roar of the engine tells a story of relentless pursuit. A pursuit of excellence, of beauty, of power. Born from a legacy that spans generations, Jaguar represents the audacity to to dream Beyond limits. It's the harmony of engineering and emotion - the fusion of performance and elegance. It's not just a car, it's the culmination of passion driven by those who refuse to settle for anything less than extraordinary. It's the embodiment of motion as art where every detail, every line, every sound, has been sculpted with purpose crafted to awaken something deeper in all of us. Every mile in a Jaguar is a testament to what we stand for: courage, innovation, and a profound connection between driver and machine. This isn't just a journey, it's a love affair with the road. Jaguar - where legacy meets the future and passion drives us forward.

My comments:  This is the best car commercial I have ever seen.  Too bad it's totally fake and Jaguar sucks.

Buy Now Pay Later

There is a new (to me at least) concept in FinTech called Buy Now Pay Later.  You can buy pretty much anything and then split it into 4 payments.  It is kind of like reverse layaway. The biggest company seems to be AfterPay, but there are a whole slew of these:  Affirm, Credova, Klarna, Uplift, Sezzle, Sunbit, Denefits, Zip.co, Quadpay, Payl8r, GoCardless, Clearpay, Paypal, Splitit, Amazon Pay, Zilch, Laybuy, Walmart One, Upgrade.  (Also add in things like Best Buy and Home Depot that offer no interest plans as long as they are paid off on time, but then will charge the full deferred interest if it is not).  They will charge a fee up front of up to 10%, but claim to be interest-free.  They charge hefty late fees and interest on late payments.  These are not reported to the credit bureaus unless a person is late.  The total balance due on these plans is more than $700 billion, which is phantom debt.  These can stop credit card companies and other credit analysts from discovering a person's true financial status.

A sub-category of this is payment for cruises:  Princess EZpay, Virgin Voyages Flex Pay, Uplift, Royal Caribbean (Affirm), Carnival Book Now Pay Later, Klarna.  You could go on a cruise paying only a small amount up front and without a credit check.  It seems risky to the cruise lines, but it is a way to fill cruise ships.

Read: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/debt-credit-cards/2024/09/23/id/1181421/

The Bacon Experiment

The Bacon Man, Dan Quibell, explains how he lost 20 lbs in one month eating 2 lbs of bacon per day.

Ukrainian Disinformation

After eight years of unsuccessful attempts to massacre all Russophiles in Donbas, Ukraine decided to attack the Russians in Crimea with the support of NATO and the United States. Unfortunately, Russia pre-empted this operation by invading Ukraine, which immediately began labeling the preemptive and limited Russian operation as “the largest military aggression in Europe since World War II: a large-scale, illegal, and unprovoked invasion.”   https://larouchepub.com/other/interviews/2024/5146-why_ukraine_s_war_propaganda_i.html

Now read: https://geoestrategia.eu/pdf/TOYSOLDIERSNATO.pdf

Fifty percent of all Federal employees only work 1 day per month at the office

 https://x.com/benaverbook/status/1861511174061240436

The government workforce has been exposed:

• Half never returned to the office after COVID.

• Some show up just one day a month.

• Yet, they still collect full DC-level salaries.

They have Civil Service protection and they are unionized so they are impossible to fire.  And when they do show up at the office, they will fly in for a long weekend, show up the last business day of a month, and then the first business day of the following month. Then presumably fly home or go on vacation for two months and repeat.  They probably have to check email or do a video chat at least once a day. Oh by the way the average Federal employee salary is over $100,000 per year.

What is the solution?  Well, these employees can't be fired.  How about name and shame the worst offending agencies, and then put a total freeze on their promotions, pay raises, and hiring for the next 4 years.  And make these agencies vacate their empty office space, and cut their budgets.

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Update:

Martin O'Malley, the current SSA Commissioner, resigned effective Nov. 29, 2024, to become the new DNC chairman.  However, today, Dec 4, he signed a new deal extending the right of Social Security employees to work from home until 2029.  How does that work?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/thousands-government-employees-land-deal-continue-telework-biden-admin-appointee-report

A union representing thousands of federal and government workers landed members a work from home deal ahead of the  The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) reached an agreement with the Social Security Administration (SSA) to protect telework, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing messages viewed by the outlet. The updated contract, which affects 42,000 government employees, will allow workers to stay hybrid until 2029. The deal was signed by President Biden's former SSA Commissioner, Martin O’Malley. incoming Trump administration's efforts to force workers to return to office.

How can he sign something binding the government for 5 years if he already resigned?  This is a big middle finger to Trump by the deep bureaucracy.

Should the US Treasury stop paying interest on the National Debt?

It would save $1 trillion per year.  Just cut the interest rate to 0% and only issue short-term bonds.  Why should rich people have guaranteed income for no risk?  If they want a bigger return, they can buy stocks.

Read:  https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/how-to-cut-2-trillion-in-federal

Now imagine what would happen if, instead of the president jawboning the Fed, the 119th Congress decided to exercise greater control over this part of the federal budget. To do that, it could instruct the Federal Reserve to permanently bring the overnight interest rate down to ~zero percent and to rely on other tools to influence the broader economy. To ensure that interest expense falls toward zero over time, Congress could instruct the U.S. Treasury to stop issuing anything with duration beyond a 3-mo T-bill. Voilà! It wouldn’t just save $2 trillion, it would save tens of trillions of dollars over time.

Delinquent Credit Card Debt

 

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1858229593909469385 

The share of US credit card debt that is delinquent 90+ days jumped to 11.1% in Q3 2024, the highest level since 2011. This is the 5th consecutive quarter of increases, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This share even exceeds the 2020 peak and has been rising at a pace only seen during recessions. At the same time, credit card debt hit $1.17 trillion, a new record. This means a whopping ~$130 billion of credit card debt is on the verge of a default.

And its not even Christmas yet.  It has been rising at a pace only seen during - what?  Let's keep an eye on this and see where it is in January.

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Update:

See also: US credit card defaults jump to highest level since 2010  https://www.ft.com/content/c755a34d-eb97-40d1-b780-ae2e2f0e7ad9

Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50 per cent from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData.

How autonomous vehicles will destroy cities

National Debt hits $36 trillion

 

Source: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

This was about 4 months after it hit $35 trillion , and about 11 months after it hit $34 trillion (on 1/4/24). Just 3 months prior to that, on 9/15/23, it was at $33 trillion, and then 3 months prior to that, on 6/15/23 it was at $32 trillion.  So in less than 18 months, it increased by $4 trillion.

Note that the national debt first hit $23 trillion on 11/7/2019.  So it has gone up $13 trillion in 5 years.  It first hit $18 trillion on 11/27/14, almost exactly 10 years ago. (It took 5 years to go up $5 trillion, from $18 trillion to $23 trillion, but in the next 5 years it went up $13 trillion).   So the national debt should hit $72 trillion on about 12/1/2034.

The total national debt should hit $37 trillion on about June 1, 2025.

Michael Hudson predicts that the Fed will crash the stock market and blame Trump

 Read: https://michael-hudson.com/2024/11/a-concept-of-a-plan-for-the-national-interest/

I spent about 20 minutes reading half of this but I don't understand his point.  But it is worth reading when I have time.  He is predicting that the Fed will intentionally crash the stock market, but the Republicans don't know what they are doing.

Excerpt: 

Right now, you have the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in order to somehow keep the stock market and bond market rising, so that when Trump takes over in January, the Fed can then say, Oh, there’s an inflation: let’s raise interest rates, crash the stock market, as a result of the Fed’s action, and then say, Look at what Trump has done: he’s collapsed the stock market.

The economy is going down (because the economy is the stock market: the economy is what… 10% of the population has 87% of the stocks); so essentially they want to set Trump up for blame. He realizes that and I think that’s what he wants the Treasury to do.

So, now we have Mr. Scott Bessent put in. He’s a hedge fund manager. Imagine looking at the economy as if it were a hedge fund? A hedge fund is a zero-sum game: you bet against somebody else in the financial horse race, and if you win (and he became a billionaire doing this), then somebody has to lose.

Are we now allowed to ask - who is this fool?

 

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is now less than $7 trillion for the first time since 2020.

 See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

The balance sheet is now at $6.967 trillion.  It has been dropping at the rate of about $50 billion per month, so if this trend continues, it will be below $6 trillion by the summer of 2026.  With a lower balance sheet, the Fed should be able to lower the interest that it pays and to lower its losses, which continue at the rate of about $6.5 billion per month.

How much of the balance sheet is for reverse repos?  It is now $214 billion. (See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD ).  This is money the Fed is borrowing, at market interest rates, from mutual funds.  This number should be at $0.  The Fed doesn't need the money (since it can create money out of thin air), and the mutual funds can invest their money in US treasury bonds, of which there are a lot.  Maybe the Fed should reduce the interest rates it pays on the reverse repos, currently at about 4.5%, to discourage mutual funds from using this, and to save a little interest expense, since the Fed is losing money.  But the Fed doesn't care about losing money - they care more about bailing out their Wall Street buddies.

Hopefully this situation will resolve itself in a few months, with the balance sheet keep dropping.  On the other hand if there is a crisis in early 2025, either through a recession starting, or a bank crisis because of BTFP expiring, or because Congress cannot agree to quickly raise the debt ceiling (which expires on Jan 2, 2025), then the Fed may do an emergency QE program and raise the Fed balance sheet above $10 trillion.  

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Update: Now the Fed is talking about lowering the RRP rate from 4.55% to 4.5% to discourage its use.

Eliminating the 5 basis-point spread between the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate and the bottom of the monetary policy rate would make the reverse repo facility -- widely viewed as a proxy for excessive liquidity -- marginally less appealing.  Some Fed officials at the Nov. 6-7 meeting felt that "at a future meeting, there would be value in the (Federal Open Market) Committee considering a technical adjustment to the rate offered at the ON RRP facility" to bring it back down to equal the bottom of the policy rate range, according to the minutes.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/some-fed-policymakers-open-lowering-overnight-repo-rate-2024-11-26/

Alex Jones is back

 The reported sale of InfoWars.com and studio to The Onion was either a hoax or blocked by the bankruptcy judge for some reason.  In any event, Alex Jones is back, crazier and madder than ever.  This may be temporary, but at the moment, Alex Jones is back in his studio.

https://www.infowars.com/

https://x.com/RealAlexJones/

Maybe I should get an X account.

Update:  Apparently Elon Musk is stepping in to save the day.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14094183/Alex-Jones-Elon-Musk-saved-Infowars-sold-Onion.html

The Department of Government Efficiency

 

Source: https://x.com/DOGE

Is this a joke?  I'm not sure.  There is no official Trump transition website.

See also https://discourse.nomineesforthepeople.com/ which is like a fantasy football league of nominees for the Trump administration.  

Congress investigates reports of UFOs

 Read: https://entertainment.slashdot.org/story/24/11/14/0543247/experts-testify-us-is-running-secret-uap-programs

https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-exposing-the-truth/

https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Written-Testimony-Shellenberger.pdf

There is, however, a growing body of evidence that the government is not being transparent about what it knows about unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), formerly called UFOs, and that elements within the military and IC are in violation of their Constitutional duty to notify Congress of their operations.

October deficit was $257 billion

 Read: https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts1024.pdf

There were revenues of $326.8 billion but expenditures of $584.2 billion.  In October 2023, the deficit was only $67 billion.

Net interest for October was $80 billion, up from $76 billion in October 23, which is only a 5% increase, helped by slightly lower rates.

The national debt as of 10/31/24 was $35.95 trillion, up from $33.7 trillion as of 10/31/23, an increase of 6.7%.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $207 billion (as of 10/30/24), up from $199.8 billion (as of 9/25/24), an increase of $7.2 billion, but note that this covered 5 weeks, because the Fed does weekly reports.

Why did the government spend so much money? The biggest thing that stands out is Medicare, which jumped from spending $24 billion in October 23 to $77 billion in October 24. I don't see any explanation for it.  Also, national defense increased from $87 billion in 10/23 to $103 billion in 10/24.  And Veterans Affairs jumped from $14 billion to $30 billion - what is going on there?  Is this a free-for-all in the last days of the Biden administration?

=========

The CBO says that the October deficit was $255 billion.

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are coordinating interest rates

 On November 7, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% from a range of 4.75% to 5.00% to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

On November 7, 2024, the Bank of England cut rates by 0.25% from 5.00% to 4.75%.

On December 18 or 19, 2024, both banks will have meetings again to determine interest rates.  What are the odds that they will both cut rates by 0.25%?

-------------------------------------------------------

2024 FOMC Meetings - December 17 - 18.   https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

"This Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published on 19 December 2024."  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/december-2024

Does this signal that a recession is coming?

 

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#

Every time since 1980 that the 10Y-2Y yield curve is negative, then become positive, a recession occurs.  Furthermore, this occurs right when the 10Y-2Y hits +0.5.  

Read also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/20/hard-landing-10y-2y-yield-curve-suggests-coming-recession/

Today, 11/7/24, the 10Y yield is at 4.3% and the 2Y yield is at 4.2%, so this is +0.1.  If the Fed cuts rates again on 12/17/24 by another 0.25% as I just predicted, then this will almost be enough to push the economy into recession.  Or maybe it is a coincidental indicator not a cause of it - "correlation does not equal causation".  If the Fed cuts rates again on January 30, 2025, then this will almost certainly signal that a recession has occurred (or cause it, depending on your point of view).

I think that the Fed is following the 17 year script and will lead us right into a recession, which I am guessing will start on February 1, 2025, just as Trump takes office as a "present" for him.

Fed cuts rates 0.25 percent following 17 year cycle

 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-21

https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-cuts-rates-by-05-on-september-18.html

I have already pointed out the freakishness of the 17 year cycle here:  https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/02/17-year-cycle.html

On September 18, 2007, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%.

On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% from 5.25% to 4.75%, exactly 17 years later.

On October 31, 2007, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%.

On November 7, 2024, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% from 4.75% to 4.5%, 17 years and 7 days later.

--------------------------------------

I feel like history is repeating itself almost exactly.  If trends continue, look out for these dates:

December 1, 2007, the recession officially began, although it was not officially called until much later by the BEA.  (Will a recession begin on December 1, 2024?)

December 11, 2007, the Fed cut rates another 0.25%.  (There is a Fed meeting on December 17-18, 2024, will the Fed cut rates another 0.25% on that date?)

January 22, 2008, the Fed cut rates another 0.75%.  (There is a Fed meeting on Jan 30-31, 2025, will the Fed cut rates by another 0.75% at that time?  This seems crazy and would only happen if there is a crisis of some sort).

How America Became Unburdened By What Has Been

 Here is an excellent summary listing the 10 reasons why Trump won.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2024/11/how-america-became-unburdened-by-what-has-been/

1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”

2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control

3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III

4. The Media’s Smears Against Trump No Longer Work

5. Musk Restored Freedom Of Speech Online

6. Musk, RFK, & Tulsi Made It Cool To Defect From The Democrats

7. The Amish & Poles Helped Trump Pull Ahead In Pennsylvania

8. The Republicans’ GOTV Campaign Made All The Difference. (The aggressive get out the vote campaign with early voting and ballot harvesting).

9. Abortion Is No Longer An Issue In Presidential Elections

10. Walz Was One Of The Worst VP Picks Imaginable

Election Prediction - Harris will win

This is my prediction of what will happen tomorrow and in the next few weeks after that, when they finish counting and recounting.  There was massive fraud in 2020 that hasn't been addressed, and it will happen again in Pennsylvania.

Update 11/5/24: Obviously, this didn't happen.  The 3 AM votes never showed up.

I think there are still issues with voting integrity and procedures as evidenced by the fact that now, over 12 hours after all the polls have closed, several states still have less than 80% of the votes counted: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Oregon, Utah, Washington.  (All of these are blue states except for Alaska, Arizona and Utah). There were also claims of voting irregularities in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado.  I think all of these states should examine their voting procedures and study how to improve them.