The DJIA had a high of 45,054 on Jan 31, 2025. Today (March 13), it opened at 41,280, and it is dropping further. So it is down approximately 10% from the high and will probably drop further. How does this compare to the start of the Great Recession?
On Oct 9, 2007, the DJIA peaked at 14,164, which began a long decline which bottomed out on March 6, 2009 at 6,470, a drop of more than 50%. The recession at that time officially began on December 1, 2007. (but that date wasn't declared until much later by the NBER). So it is approximately a 2 month delay between the stock market peak and the start of a recession.
So the recession should begin on April 1, 2025, give or take a month. (I previously predicted a recession starting Feb 1, 2025).
The Fed of course already has a script to follow, so we can predict with high confidence that there will be a rate cut of 0.75% on Tuesday, June 17, 2025 when there is a scheduled Federal Reserve OMC meeting. (The rate cut could be earlier, in May). This is based on a 17-year cycle of an emergency rate cut of 0.75% on Jan 22, 2008, but delayed by 5 months.
I think Trump is intentionally causing a recession to force the Fed to cut rates.
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