Anacyclosis

 The Greek historian Polybius was one of the first to document the cycle of civilisational birth and death via a process he termed “anacyclosis.”  Nor was this a purely academic exercise.  Born in 198BC, Polybius had witnessed first hand the triumph of a powerful Roman Republic over the city states of ancient Greece… Polybius himself taken to Rome as a hostage (although enjoying considerable freedom to observe the mechanics of the Roman system and even to accompany armies on their campaigns).  This allowed Polybius to claim that the Romans had discovered the secret sauce which prevented their decline and fall (although if he had lived a few decades longer he would have witnessed the corruption and conflict which caused the Romans to morph from a republic to an empire).

Polybius’s cycle comes in seven stages.  First, is a kind of distressed primitive anarchy in which nobody is in charge.  But sooner or later, in stage two, a warlord emerges to impose order, ushering in a monarchy.  Monarchy – particularly where it is heredity – gradually descends into stage three, tyranny, until such times as even the elites become fed up, and usher in stage four – aristocracy.  Aristocrats though, tend to become self-interested over time, leading to stage five – oligarchy.  Eventually, oligarchy is overthrown by a popular uprising which ushers in stage six – democracy.  But democracy is susceptible to corruption and grift, with representatives making false promises while imposing increased taxes at every opportunity.  Until ultimately – stage seven – the civilisation descends into chaos and a dark age ensues.

The Roman Republic appeared to have overcome this cycle by balancing the three positives – monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy in a way which prevented any one of the three negatives – tyranny, oligarchy, and anarchy – from breaking out.  And it is worth noting that both the British and the American empires in the modern era adopted similar checks and balances – Britain having an actual king (monarchy) a house of Lords (aristocracy) and a house of commons (democracy).  America a pseudo, presidential king (monarchy) a judiciary (aristocracy) and a congress (democracy).  But note also that over time both systems have been pushed remorselessly in the direction of democracy even as democracy has become ever more venal.  https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/05/03/the-world-ended-in-1999/