Tax Spend Spend Tot Sp Primary Total Debt to Debt %
Year GDP Rev Other SS x Int Deficit Int Deficit Public GDP
2025 30.7 5.2 4.4 1.6 6.0 0.8 1.0 1.8 30.3 98.7%
2026 32.3 5.6 4.7 1.7 6.4 0.8 1.2 2.1 32.4 100.2%
2027 33.7 5.9 4.8 1.8 6.6 0.7 1.3 2.0 34.4 102.0%
2028 35.0 6.1 5.0 1.9 6.9 0.8 1.4 2.2 36.6 104.6%
2029 36.4 6.3 5.1 2.0 7.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 38.9 106.8%
2030 37.7 6.6 5.3 2.1 7.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 41.2 109.3%
2031 39.2 6.9 5.4 2.2 7.6 0.7 1.6 2.3 43.6 111.2%
2032 40.7 7.1 5.6 2.3 7.9 0.8 1.7 2.5 46.1 113.3%
2033 42.2 7.4 6.0 2.4 8.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 49.0 116.0%
2034 43.8 7.7 6.1 2.5 8.6 0.9 2.0 2.9 51.8 118.3%
2035 45.4 8.0 6.2 2.6 8.8 0.8 2.1 2.9 54.7 120.5%
2036 47.1 8.3 6.6 2.7 9.3 1.0 2.2 3.2 57.9 122.9%
2037 48.9 8.6 7.0 2.9 9.9 1.3 2.3 3.6 61.5 125.8%
2038 50.8 8.9 7.6 3.0 10.6 1.7 2.5 4.2 65.7 129.4%
2039 52.7 9.3 8.2 3.1 11.3 2.0 2.6 4.7 70.4 133.6%
2040 54.7 9.7 8.9 3.2 12.1 2.4 2.8 5.2 75.6 138.3%
2041 56.7 10.1 9.7 3.3 13.0 2.9 3.0 6.0 81.6 143.9%
2042 58.9 10.5 10.4 3.5 13.9 3.4 3.3 6.6 88.2 149.8%
2043 61.1 10.9 11.3 3.6 14.9 4.0 3.5 7.5 95.8 156.7%
2044 63.3 11.3 12.2 3.7 15.9 4.6 3.8 8.5 104.2 164.6%
2045 65.7 11.8 13.2 3.9 17.1 5.3 4.2 9.4 113.6 173.0%
2046 68.1 12.3 14.2 4.0 18.2 5.9 4.5 10.4 124.1 182.2%
2047 70.5 12.8 15.4 4.2 19.6 6.8 5.0 11.7 135.8 192.6%
2048 73.1 13.3 16.6 4.3 20.9 7.6 5.4 13.0 148.9 203.6%
2049 75.7 13.8 17.9 4.5 22.4 8.6 6.0 14.5 163.4 215.8%
2050 78.4 14.4 19.3 4.6 23.9 9.5 6.5 16.1 179.5 228.9%
2051 81.2 15.0 20.7 4.8 25.5 10.5 7.2 17.7 197.1 242.8%
This is my latest forecast. It shows the 150% of GDP mark being reached in
2043, which is 2 years earlier than the last time I did this
forecast in June 2025. The 110% mark, which I now think is important, will be reached in 2031.
The numbers seem a little high after about 2040 so I will need to double-check my math. But you can see that once things start to really fall apart that the collapse accelerates. Interest compounds on itself and the growth in spending continues to outpace the growth of revenues.
Everyone seems to just assume that the situation will magically fix itself before it gets that bad. But the entitlement spending will continue to rapidly increase, and the so-called discretionary spending, which includes military, is increasing faster than revenue as well.
So here it is, maybe flawed, but I am sticking with it until I can look at it some more.
I should run this through ChatGPT and see what it comes up with.
