Interest Rates

If the 10-year Treasury rises to 4%, what will happen?  The bond market will collapse, and real estate will collapse.  But it's unclear what will happen to stocks.  The money has to go somewhere and stocks (along with gold) may benefit.

So it may be a rolling collapse.  First, the stock market drops.  Then bonds and real estate drop.  Then the money goes back into stocks.  Then interest rates rise again, and bonds drop further. Then the stock market collapses.  I'm not smart enough to figure it out.  But the bond market collapse will cause a lot of people to panic over huge losses in what they thought were very safe investments.

But rising interest rates doesn't mean a recession will occur.  If interest rates rise sharply, and then drop, that is when a recession is about to start.