The end is nigh

Date          Close
===========  ===========
Aug 1, 2013  15,628.02 Head (D)
Jul 31, 2013 15,499.54 Left Valley (C)
Jul 30, 2013 15,520.59
Jul 29, 2013 15,521.97 
Jul 26, 2013 15,558.83
Jul 25, 2013 15,555.61 
Jul 24, 2013 15,542.24 
Jul 23, 2013 15,567.74 Left Shoulder (B)
Jul 22, 2013 15,545.55
Jul 19, 2013 15,543.74 
Jul 18, 2013 15,548.54 
Jul 17, 2013 15,470.52 
Jul 16, 2013 15,451.85 Low after previous high (A)
Jul 15, 2013 15,484.26 Previous High
Jul 12, 2013 15,464.30

The DJIA just closed at an all-time high yesterday, beating the previous high set on July 23.  I think this is the top.  To repeat: "If this is not the top, then it is getting close."

How will we know when a top has been reached? When a "head-and-shoulders" pattern emerges.  I think we are at the head, we just need to see the other shoulder.

What would this look like? After the potential head is identified, then prices will drop to near the left valley and then rise again to a peak that is less than the head, and then fall below the neckline (the line between the left valley and the right valley).  So there are 7 distinct points to identify.




"The bull market without a 20% correction has lasted 1,598 days, making it the 5th longest bull market in history. In the absence of accelerating earnings, these conditions suggest that a “pause” or even a “correction” could be “in the cards” sometime soon."
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dow-jones-industrial-average-approaches-longterm-resistance-cm262374

See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2013/07/did-djia-top-out-on-july-23.html

=========================================
Update: And another record high. The close on August 2, 2013 is 15658.36, up 30.34 since yesterday.  It will keep going up forever. Or not.

And this is only the 6th longest bull market, not the 5th.  Longer ones were:
1990 to 2000 (9 years)
1921 to 1929 (8 years)
1949 to 1956 (7 years)
2002 to 2007 (5 years)
1982 to 1987 (5 years)