Friday, July 26, 2013

Did the DJIA top out on July 23?

Date         Close
============ =========
Jul 26, 2013 15,558.83
Jul 25, 2013 15,555.61
Jul 24, 2013 15,542.24
Jul 23, 2013 15,567.74
Jul 22, 2013 15,545.55
Jul 19, 2013 15,543.74
Jul 18, 2013 15,548.54
If this is not the top, then it is getting close.

See also: http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/07/7-23-room-237-stock-market-top.html

The last time the DJIA reached a top (10/9/07 at 14,164), a recession started two months later, in December 2007.  Before that in 2000 (1/14/2000 at 11,722), a recession started 14 months later, in March 2001. We may have a recession starting in October, when Obamacare begins.

Another indicator of a top is NYSE margin debt, which declined from April to May.  The June numbers will be out about July 31, so we will see then if it continues its decline.

To recap:  the NYSE margin debt is a leading indicator of the stock market, which is a leading indicator of the economy.

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