Monday, March 11, 2024

2025 Budget

 See: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 (whitehouse.gov)

I have just glanced at it, but I think it is totally unrealistic.  For example, the deficit in 2024 is given in the budget as $1.86 trillion, but I think it will be about $2.1 trillion.  The budget claims that the deficit will be reduced in 2025 to 1,781; in 2026 to 1,547; and in 2027 to 1,510.  After that it rises, but it is still below the 2024 number all the way through 2034 (which projects a deficit of 1,677, including interest).  The main reason for this is that taxes will go up drastically. 

The word "tax" is mentioned in the document 292 times (including mentions of tax credits and taxpayer).  The new taxes include: a minimum tax on billionaires, a 15% minimum tax on corporations with profits of more than $1 billion, a separate 21% minimum tax on corporations (I'm not sure what the difference is), increase of Medicare tax on incomes over $400,000, increasing fuel tax on high-end business jets, a surcharge on corporate stock buybacks, a separate 25% minimum tax on those with wealth more than $100 million (this may be the same as the billionaires tax), an increase in the top rate of corporations to 28%, raising the rates on foreign earnings to 21%, increasing the top rate on individuals who make more than $400,000 to 39.6%, an increase in capital gains tax for those earning more than $1 million, non-renewal of tax cuts set to expire in 2025, a Net Investment Income Tax that would go into the Medicare Hospital trust fund, expand limitation on deductibility of excessive employee renumeration, adopt the undertaxed profits rule etc.  

It projects the 2034 Debt Held By the Public to be only $45 trillion.  I think it will be about $70 trillion in 2034, but what do I know.  Let's see what the CBO thinks.

So the Whitehouse thinks that revenue as a percent of GDP will be 18.7% in 2025, and then rising every year to 20.3% in 2034.  The CBO thinks that revenue will be 17.1% in 2025 and 17.9% in 2034.  These are huge differences, for example just in 2025 the CBO thinks revenue will be about $5.0 trillion whereas the Whitehouse thinks that revenue will be almost $5.5 trillion.


The BOI is not dead

 Ok, the headline is a very bad attempt at a pun.  BOI stands for Beneficial Ownership Information.  In a law passed in 2021, every business in the United States, including limited liability companies (LLCs), must file a report with FinCen as to who the true owners are by the end of 2024 (although some business are exempt, such as banks).  The reports are not very hard to file and there is no filing fee, but they do require an email address to register with FinCen.  The purpose of the BOI filing is anti-money laundering.

The National Small Business Association, an organization that represents 85,000 small businesses, sued the Department of Treasury in federal district court in Alabama arguing that the law requiring such reports was unconstitutional.  And they won!  Hurrah, no one needs to file reports with FinCen!  See the court order at: https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/alabama/alndce/5:2022cv01448/183445/51/

The Alabama court said that it was unconstitutional because it "exceeds the Constitution's limits on the legislative branch and lacks a sufficient nexus to any numerated power to be a necessary or proper means of achieving Congress' policy goals".  And the decision applies only to the plaintiffs, the 85,000 small businesses represented by the NSBA, not the millions of other businesses

Ah, not so fast, the BOI is not dead.  Of course, the defendants appealed.  They are the government, with unlimited amounts of money to fight, and they are represented by the Department of Justice attorneys.  So, expect this decision to be overturned, and it may go to the Supreme Court.

Friday, March 8, 2024

Pentagon Review Finds No Evidence of Alien Cover-Up

 Read: Pentagon Review Finds No Evidence of Alien Cover-Up - Slashdot

US once considered program to reverse-engineer alien spacecraft, Pentagon report reveals - POLITICO

AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 (defense.gov)

Detailed Analysis of the Government's Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena - The Debrief

But what about Project Kona Blue?  This wasn't covered-up, it just wasn't disclosed.  Got it?  

KONA BLUE: A Proposed UAP Recovery and Reverse-Engineering Program
KONA BLUE was brought to AARO’s attention by interviewees who claimed
that it was a sensitive DHS compartment to cover up the retrieval and 
exploitation of “non-human biologics.” KONA BLUE traces its origins
to the DIA-managed AAWSAP/AATIP program, which was funded through a 
special appropriation and executed by its primary contractor, a private
sector organization. DIA cancelled the program in 2012 due to lack of
merit and the utility of the deliverables. As discussed in Section IV 
of this report, while the official purpose of AAWSAP/AATIP was to conduct
research into 12 areas of cutting edge science, the contractor team, and
at least one supportive government program manager, also conducted UAP 
and paranormal research at a property owned by the private sector 
organization. When DIA cancelled this program, its supporters proposed 
to DHS thatthey create and fund a new version of AAWSAP/AATIP under a 
SAP. This proposal, codenamed KONA BLUE, would restart UAP 
investigations, paranormal research (including alleged “human 
consciousness anomalies”) and reverse-engineer any recovered
off-world spacecraft that they hoped to acquire. This proposal 
gained some initial traction at DHS to the point where a Prospective 
Special Access Program (PSAP) was officially requested to stand up this 
program, but it was eventually rejected by DHS leadership for lacking 
merit. As demonstrated by the proposal package and by statements from 
the originator, Senators Lieberman and Reid asked that the PSAP be 
established with the promise of additional funding. The proposed KONA 
BLUE lines of effort closely mirrored those conducted by the private 
sector organization for AAWSAP/AATIP.
KONA BLUE’s advocates were convinced that the USG was hiding UAP 
technologies. They believed that creating this program under DHS would 
allow all of the technology and knowledge of these alleged programs to 
be moved under the KONA BLUE program. The program would provide a 
security and governing structure where it could be monitored properly
by congressional oversight committees. This belief was foundational 
for the KONA BLUE proposal, based on the proposal documents and 
several interviewees who have provided the same information to AARO 
and Congress.
 The Oral History Initiative section of the KONA BLUE proposal was 
to collect data: “…from an already identified and calibrated list of 
retired, previously highly placed government, armed services, 
contractor and intelligence community individuals. The oral history
project will include gathering all information pertaining to the 
location of advanced aerospace technology and biological samples, 
including records, files, reports, photographs, as well as physical 
samples.” It is critical to note that no extraterrestrial craft or 
bodies were ever collected—this material was only assumed to exist 
by KONA BLUE advocates and its anticipated contract performers. This 
was the same assumption made by those same individuals involved with 
the AAWSAP/AATIP program. The SAP was never approved or stood up, and 
no data or material was transferred to DHS.
• KONA BLUE was not reported to Congress at that time because it was 
never established as a SAP and, therefore, did not meet the threshold
for congressional reporting. However, the Deputy Secretary of Defense 
provided a Congressional Notification concerning the program when it 
was identified in the spirit of transparency.

Deficit of $298 billion in February

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-03/59973-MBR.pdf 

The fiscal year to date 2024 deficit is $830 billion for 5 months.  Interest for February was $69 billion. Defense spending for the month was $62 billion. We are still on track for a $2.1 trillion deficit for FY 2024.

The national debt as of 2/29/24 was $34.47 trillion. On 2/28/23 the national debt was $31.46 trillion. So it grew by 9.6%, and this is higher than the 8% long-term growth I see, but I think this will slow down slightly for the April to June quarter at least.

Revision: The National Debt will be $100 Trillion by 2038

 I just made a post saying that the national debt will be $100 trillion by 2035.   This uses a 10% annual growth in the total national debt.  I think this is too pessimistic, and I think 8% growth is more likely and we have until 2038 until we hit $100 trillion.  So here are the revised numbers.  The GDP growth is close to 5.5% annually but not exactly.


There is a gap of about 2.5% annually (8% growth in debt vs 5.5% growth in GDP) and this is about $700 billion for 2024.  I think the Fed will have to buy this much debt annually.  Maybe they should stop QT by July 1 and that way they aren't sucking money out of the system when it is needed to buy new government debt.  And then freeze their balance sheet for a couple of years until they need to start expanding it again.  There is no point in just shrinking the balance sheet until something breaks, unless that is part of their nefarious plan.


Monday, March 4, 2024

The pig butchering scam

 Have you ever received a text message from a stranger that seems to be a mistake?  If you reply, then you become a "pig" who is about to get butchered.  The person you are interacting with has a very detailed set of scripts that tells them how to respond to lure you in to their scheme.

Each criminal establishment compound has various scripts available to their staff while running the pig butchering scam. These scripts serve as very detailed guides that tell the staff how to respond to different situations and questions from their targets. These scripts are written by experts, doctors, and professors in psychology, as they are crucial to their success. Compared with traditional scams, pig butchering scams have evolved a lot, combining social engineering, internet technology, psychology, sociology, etc., into a complex new discipline. 

https://www.amlrightsource.com/news/pig-butchering-scams-are-spreading


Sunday, March 3, 2024

The national debt will be $100 trillion by 2035

 This is a similar but slightly different calculation to the previous post.  I noticed that the national debt has been increasing at slightly more than a 10% rate from the year previous.  And elsewhere I saw a prediction from Social Security that GDP would increase at an average 5.5% pace.  Combine these and see what the national debt is a percent of GDP, and this is what you get.



Saturday, March 2, 2024

The debt is rising $1 trillion every 100 days

 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

June 15, 2023: $32 trillion

Sept 15, 2023 (92 days later): $33 trillion

Jan 4, 2024 (111 days later): $34 trillion

This time will take longer because April should have a surplus because of taxes. But this could look like:

May 15, 2024 (132 days later): $35 trillion

Aug 31, 2024 (108 days later): $36 trillion

Dec 15, 2024 (106 days later): $37 trillion

March 15, 2025 (106 days later): $38 trillion

July 31, 2025 (138 days later): $39 trillion

Nov 15, 2025 (107 days later): $40 trillion

March 1, 2026 (106 days later): $41 trillion

 =================================

Since I am a doom-and-gloom guy, is this a problem?  The answer is no.  

1) The national debt and deficit goes up but the GDP (of which government spending is a portion) goes up as well, so the ratio of the debt to GDP remains about the same.  

2) The Fed has almost total control over the interest rates, so those aren't a problem. They should be about 4% going forward on a long-term basis. 

3)  As for where the money comes from to borrow, current bondholders and banks get interest (which is newly created money), so the money supply grows about the same rate as the debt.  

4) If this gets out of whack, the Fed can always engage in Quantitative Easing to buy more bonds.  Right now, the Fed is doing Quantative Tightening for another year or so until the Fed balance sheet reaches about $6 trillion, (with about $4 trillion of that being Treasuries).  They seem to expect that the private sector (and the government trust funds) can finance the rest of the debt.  But they may need to buy a certain percentage (20%?) of the newly issued debt on a consistent basis going forward.

I think we are on track to hit $1 quadrillion in national debt about 2090.  (Or is this 2070?). This will be long after I am gone.  But this is not a problem.

=========================

I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and did a trend analysis using the TREND() function in Excel.  The trend is to increase the national debt by $846 billion every quarter, or 1 trillion every 107 days.  Here is what popped up.  These should be similar numbers to those above.


Using the same trend, we should hit $50 trillion by 9/30/2028.

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Stock market high on Sept 11 2024?

 Ok, hopefully nothing will happen on that day.  But it could be the day that the stock market hits a high before the next recession starts.

 If you start on 7/12/1990, which is the date of the DJIA high for the year (when it hit 2969), and add 6240 days, you get 8/12/2007, which wasn't the date of the high in 2007 but it was close (since the actual high was 10/9/07 when it hit 14,164).  Now add another 6240 days and you get 9/11/2024.  

Ok it is probably nothing, but the stock market will reach a high sometime this summer or fall, and this could be the date.  Then the Fed will start to cut rates, I just predicted 10/15/24 (6237 days after it first cut rates in 2007), or more likely 9/18/2024, since there is no Fed meeting in October.  Then the recession will officially start about 1/1/25 (6240 days after the recession started in December 2007).

================

Oh, one more thing.  I was completely ignoring that this is an election year.  November 5, 2024 is the date of the general election.  The FOMC will meet on November 6-7 - any guesses as to if they cut rates at that time?  This is just a conspiracy theory, but hypothetically let's say that Trump wins on November 5, just in time for the start of the Great Recession, Part II.


Monday, February 26, 2024

17 year cycle

 In 2005, the Fed raised rates 8 times, starting at 2.25% and ending at 4.25%.

In 2006, the Fed raised rates 4 times (with the last time on June 29, 2006), ending at 5.25%.

In 2022, the Fed raised rates 7 times, starting at 0.25% and ending at 4.25%.  (The Fed raised rates much quicker in 2022 than it did in 2005, so this is not an identical rate hike history, but the end rate is the same.)

In 2023, the Fed raised rates 4 times (with the last time on July 27, 2023), ending at 5.25%.

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2017/03/17-year-business-cycle.html , which speculated about a double pi cycle.  A pi cycle (per Martin Armstrong) has 3,141 days, and a double pi cycle has 6,282 days. If you start at June 29, 2006 (the last time rates were raised in that cycle) and add 6282 you get Sept 10, 2023 (on which nothing significant happened).  

================

Update:  I think there is something to this.  

The 1973-1975 recession began in November 1973 and was triggered by an oil embargo in October 1973 by OPEC (in response to Western support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War). So let's use October 6, 1973 (when the war started), as a starting point.

This brings us to December 18, 1990.  Nothing happened on this date, but the 1990-1991 recession began in July 1990.  So backtrack 3 months to July 1, 1990.  

This brings us to September 12, 2007.   The Federal Reserved noticed a slowdown and cuts on September 18, 2007 to 4.75%.  The 2007-2009 recession officially began on December 1, 2007.  So advance the date 3 months. 

Now advance another 6282 days until you get to February 11, 2025.  Or maybe 3 months earlier which is November 12, 2024.  The next recession should begin around these dates.

===================

The Mayans had a 52 year cycle where their 260 day and 360 days cycle repeated.  This was 18,720 days long.  One third of this is 6,240 days, which is almost exactly one month longer than 17 years.  So if you use October 1, 1973 as a starting point, the next dates would be November 1, 1990;  December 2, 2007; and January 1, 2025.

===============

Hmm, start at Thursday, June 29, 2006 and add 6,240 days and what do you get? Sunday, July 30, 2023.  When you adjust for the day of the week, you get Thursday, July 27, 2023.  These are 6,237 days apart.  So maybe this is the number to use for a double pi cycle.

When did the Fed first cut rates after 2006? On Sept 18, 2007.  So 6237 days after this is October 15, 2024.

==============

So I just said that the Feb first cut rates during that cycle on Sept 18, 2007.  Go back 6237 days.  You get Aug 21, 1990.  When did the Fed first cut rates in that cycle?  On July 13, 1990.  This is a difference of 39 days, which is pretty close.

=========

But there is no Fed meeting this year in October. There is one on Sept 17-18, 2024.  So could this be almost an exact repeat of 2007?  This is too freaky. See also: September 18 is rate cut day.

Friday, February 23, 2024

Odysseus fake?

 

Source: https://static.wixstatic.com/media/7c27f7_a9ef02ff09a44a36adc78a30a3959f9b~mv2.png

This spacecraft supposedly landed on the moon yesterday.  I don't know - this looks fake to me because it is so perfect and brilliant and clean. 

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/1axlj32/lunar_lander_odysseus_touches_down_on_the_moon/

And this is definitely photoshopped.


Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moon-lander-tipped-over-on-its-side-during-touchdown/

They admit this is fake - they call it an "artist's impression".

At least the very cool looking circular mission control center in Houston is real.


What is the outstanding amount of SBA EIDL loans?

EIDL stands for Economic Injury Disaster Loan.  The SBA gave as much as $1.2 trillion of PPP and EIDL loans in 2020 and 2021, and as much as $200 billion of these are potentially fraudulent.  Most of the PPP loans have already been forgiven or paid back.

My specific question is how much of EIDL loans were outstanding as of September 30, 2022 and 2023, and how much was written off.

So as of 9/30/22, the EIDL total was $357.8 billion and as of 9/30/23, the total is $301.9 billion.  This is the Unpaid Principal Balance totals and includes only those loans that have not been charged off.  (source)

In fiscal year 2023, the SBA charged off $51.9 billion in EIDL loans.  Since the decrease in the EIDL from 2022 to 2023 was $55.9 billion, that means the actual balance decreased only $4 billion from repayment.

Does that mean there was $51.9 billion of fraud last year?  Not necessarily, there were some struggling businesses that went under.  Still, a large portion of this probably was fraudulent, because it is not too hard to make the small payments or to request a deferment. 

Friday, February 16, 2024

The Smith Family learns about the Magical Money Tree

 


Hey kids, here is a cool new comic book about money!  Go to https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/episodes.php to read.  There are 12 episodes already written and more are coming.

Learn about how money really does grow on magical trees!  And about how mean old white guys who are opposed to increasing school spending are stupid.  Because the government can spend as much as it wants to, it doesn't need taxes.  How? The Central Bank just prints it.  This comic books explains it so well that even kids can understand it and be entertained.  Just don't ask any questions.

=======================

When you are done reading these, here is a comic book about how Russia tried to influence the 2020 election to elect an evil man as President of the United States, but thankfully there was a government intelligence agency that was able to stop them.

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/cfi_real-fake_graphic-novel_508.pdf

Monday, February 12, 2024

$22 billion deficit in January 2024

 See https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0124.pdf

and https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/59822%C2%ADMBR.pdf

Net interest from the month was $68 billion.  The fiscal year to date net interest is up 47% from $198 billion in 2023 to $291 billion (according the CBO, but the monthly treasury statement says it is $283 billion).  The defense spending for January was $60 billion, and FYTD is $281 billion (according to the CBO, but the monthly treasury statement says it is $298 billion).  Maybe the CBO and the Treasury department number crunchers should talk to each other and get their stories straight.

Anyways a $22 billion deficit is pretty good in the grand scale of things.  In Jan 2023 it was $38 billion.

The fiscal year to date interest was only $140 billion in the Oct 2021-Jan 2022 time frame.  So it increased 41% from 2022 to 2023, and another 47% from 2023 to 2024. 

How long until the net interest exceeds $1 trillion per year?  I think it will be in fiscal year 2026.

===========

On 1/31/23, the total national debt was $31.455 trillion. On 1/31/24, it was $34.191 trillion.  This is an increase of 8.7% in one year.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

New 10 Year Budget Projection from CBO

 So just last week, I was saying there will be a debt crisis in 2034.  Coincidentally, the CBO just released their 10 year forecast through 2034 and it doesn't seem like any sort of debt crisis will happen.  

Here are the numbers for 2034 only:

(from https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51118-2024-02-Budget-Projections.xlsx)


Debt at 116% of GDP (with a $2.6 trillion deficit) doesn't sound good, but it isn't the end of the world.  And if GDP increases faster than projected, which I think is likely because of inflation, then it may be possible to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio at just over 100%.  

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Jerome Powell says a $144 trillion national debt in 2053 is unsustainable

 Another lingering problem from the pandemic is a sharp increase in the national debt. Thirty years from now, by one measure, it's projected to be $144 trillion, or $1 million per U.S. household. While Powell said the Fed tries not to comment on fiscal policy, which is determined by Congress and the White House, he did comment on the debt. "The U.S. federal government's on an unsustainable fiscal path," he said. "And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable."  It worries him in the long run. "You know, we're, effectively we're borrowing from future generations," he said. "It's time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-interest-rates-inflation-timing-60-minutes/

See also:  https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_outlook_shows_share_of_debt_is_projected_to_grow_to_1_million_per_american_household.pdf

Note: The report it is referencing is the CBO June 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.  This report doesn't actually mention $144 trillion, but it is calculated from the projected GDP in 2053 of $79.5 trillion times the Debt Held by the Public to GDP ratio of 181%.

As an interesting hypothetical, I recently did another calculation showing the GDP could be as much as $135 trillion in 2053.  If the debt to GDP ratio is the same this would be a debt to the public of $244 trillion.  Is this possible since the current debt to the public is $27 trillion?  Believe it or not, the answer is yes,  if the debt doubles about every 9 years, which is what is has been doing.  What would the interest on that be if the rate is 5%?  It would be $12 trillion in interest per year.  

Is this sustainable?  The devil's advocate would say, yes because it isn't at infinity yet.  If it's not sustainable, then when did it become unsustainable?  Is it already unsustainable?  It seems like the answer is no, that it is not unsustainable at the moment, but we are rapidly approaching that point.

See also https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-fed-asks-america-to-fill-in-the-blanks-_______-150091/  "a more conservative estimate of the national debt is probably closer to $60 trillion or more by 2033"

============

Update: According to the last Financial Report of the US, the Debt to the Public could reach 531% of GDP by 2098. What would this be in dollars, if you use my projection? In 2098, the GDP will be $1.518 quadrillion, so the Debt will be $8 quadrillion. At an interest rate of 5%, the annual interest would be $400 trillion per year. Ok, these numbers are ridiculous, but why are they unsustainable just because the numbers are so high?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Jamie Dimon sees debt crisis in 2034

 Jamie Dimon says mounting US debt will eventually spark a 'rebellion' in global markets.  Mounting US debt will eventually spark a "rebellion" in markets around the world, JPMorgan CEO said. That's because $7.6 trillion of US government debt is held by foreign entities in countries like Japan and China. "It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It's about 10 years out. We're going 60 miles an hour," Dimon said. The US's mountain of debt hasn't gone anywhere — and that's a big problem for markets around the world, Jamie Dimon warned at a panel decision in Washington with the Bipartisan Policy Center on Friday. The US debt-to-GDP ratio looks like a hockey-stick chart — or one that starts relatively sideways before eventually spiking — JPMorgan CEO Dimon explained. He expects the measure to hit 130% by 2035.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-mounting-us-050516886.html

This is the same time as the Social Security crisis is going to hit.

Just for fun, let's pick a date. How about Friday, September 29, 2034. That is the last business day in the fiscal year.  Maybe there will be a stock market crash that day, or interest rates will soar above 20%?  

GDP is now $27.9 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $328.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.94 trillion.  https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate

Debt to the Public is $27.0 trillion, so the ratio is 96.6%.

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

$27 trillion debt held by the public and $34 trillion total debt outstanding

 

As of yesterday, January 23, 2024, the debt held by the public hit $27.003 trillion and the total public debt hid $34.109 trillion.  I was waiting for both of these to hit the next trillion dollar mark before posting anything about it.  

This was only about 4 months after the previous milestones were reached. The $26 trillion debt held by the public was first reached on 8/31/2023, and the $33 trillion total debt was first reached on 9/15/2023

And it was only 3 months prior to this that the $25 trillion debt to the public was hit on 6/5/23 and the $32 trillion total debt was hit on 6/15/23.  

So we (I like to think that I participated in this awesome achievement!) spent $2 trillion in only 7 months. 

When did debt held by the public reach $13.5 trillion? On 11/27/2015.  So it took about 8 years to double.  If current trends continue, this will be at $54 trillion on about 1/23/2032.

When did the total debt first reach $17 trillion? On 10/17/2013.  This took about 10 years to double.  So total debt should reach $68 trillion on about 1/23/2034.  Note that the total debt was $8.5 trillion on 9/29/2006.

The next milestone of $28 trillion debt to the public and $35 trillion national debt should hit about July 1, 2024.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Are Aliens Real?

 


Starring David Grusch, whistleblower.


All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO)  https://www.aaro.mil/

==================
A former intelligence official [David Charles Grusch] turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General extensive classified information about deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin.