Thursday, August 24, 2017
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Trendline
This is the DJIA. I think the market has peaked and it will hit the upper red line and bounce off.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
2017 Social Security Trustees Report
The 2017 Social Security Trustees Report is out. Key findings:
Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, projected OASDI cost will exceed total income by increasing amounts starting in 2022, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2028 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2023 for DI, and 2035 for OASI.
So, the combined trust fund will be solvent until 2034. This is the same as in last year's report.
What about the 75-year deficit?
The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $12.5 trillion in present value and is $1.2 trillion more than the measured level of $11.4 trillion a year ago.
The 75-year deficit was $11.4 trillion in 2016, $10.7 trillion in 2015, and $10.6 trillion in 2014.
The word "unsustainable" was not used in the report.
Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, projected OASDI cost will exceed total income by increasing amounts starting in 2022, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2028 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2023 for DI, and 2035 for OASI.
So, the combined trust fund will be solvent until 2034. This is the same as in last year's report.
What about the 75-year deficit?
The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $12.5 trillion in present value and is $1.2 trillion more than the measured level of $11.4 trillion a year ago.
The 75-year deficit was $11.4 trillion in 2016, $10.7 trillion in 2015, and $10.6 trillion in 2014.
The word "unsustainable" was not used in the report.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
New Peak for the Dow
The Dow closed at 22,118.42 on Aug. 7. The SP 500 closed on 2480.91 on Aug. 7. I'm calling that this is the high for the year. Of course, I have done that several times before and been wrong, but this really might be the high for the year. I'm anticipating about a 10% drop, to below 20,000, between now and the end of October. I think the massive 40% drop will be next September. We will see.
Saturday, August 5, 2017
The Calm Before The Storm
I haven't posted in a while because everything looks great. The stock market keeps booming, and the economy is creating lots of jobs. However, it won't be long until everything comes crashing down.
Step 1: The debt crisis. Congress won't have a budget and debt agreement before October 1, and so the government will shut down for a little while. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be any big thing as it has happened several times before, most recently in 2013. Within a couple of weeks, an agreement will be hammered out, and everything will be back to normal. But not before forces set in motion ...
Step 2: A stock market crash. David Stockman thinks there could be a 40% crash this fall. I think that this won't be the big crash, just a way overdue correction of 5-10%, which with the Dow at 22,000 means 1100 to 2200. With Amazon trading at 20 million times earnings (I just made that up), just a little whiff of panic will cause it to implode. This will lead to ...
Step 3: A coup d'etat against President Trump sometime in the Spring of 2018. It will be a revolt against Trump by his own party, where unfortunately he doesn't have any friends. Trump has really pissed off the Deep State and it is fighting back. The clueless libs think that his removal will fix everything. However, it won't stop ....
Step 4: A fullblown constitutional crisis and possible civil war. Don't underestimate the power of the American people. Quote: I expect Trump to be escorted to the South Lawn for his final trip aboard the Richard Nixon memorial helicopter. What is different this time, however, is that America is in no shape to weather the ensuing storm. (https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-another-nixon/)
I hope none of this happens. I hope the debt crisis gets quickly solved, I hope the stock market keeps going up forever, I hope Trump has a good 8 years, and I hope the Deep State doesn't try to take control. However, this is the most likely scenario.
Step 1: The debt crisis. Congress won't have a budget and debt agreement before October 1, and so the government will shut down for a little while. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be any big thing as it has happened several times before, most recently in 2013. Within a couple of weeks, an agreement will be hammered out, and everything will be back to normal. But not before forces set in motion ...
Step 2: A stock market crash. David Stockman thinks there could be a 40% crash this fall. I think that this won't be the big crash, just a way overdue correction of 5-10%, which with the Dow at 22,000 means 1100 to 2200. With Amazon trading at 20 million times earnings (I just made that up), just a little whiff of panic will cause it to implode. This will lead to ...
Step 3: A coup d'etat against President Trump sometime in the Spring of 2018. It will be a revolt against Trump by his own party, where unfortunately he doesn't have any friends. Trump has really pissed off the Deep State and it is fighting back. The clueless libs think that his removal will fix everything. However, it won't stop ....
Step 4: A fullblown constitutional crisis and possible civil war. Don't underestimate the power of the American people. Quote: I expect Trump to be escorted to the South Lawn for his final trip aboard the Richard Nixon memorial helicopter. What is different this time, however, is that America is in no shape to weather the ensuing storm. (https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-another-nixon/)
I hope none of this happens. I hope the debt crisis gets quickly solved, I hope the stock market keeps going up forever, I hope Trump has a good 8 years, and I hope the Deep State doesn't try to take control. However, this is the most likely scenario.
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