Thursday, June 30, 2016

Retrofitting suburbia

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

The airports of London



Very interesting video about the 6 airports of London

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

2016 Social Security Report

The new 2016 Social Security Report is out.  Key findings:

"The dollar level of the combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034.  Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the third quarter of 2023 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2016 for DI, and 2035 for OASI."

So no change from last years report except DI is now solvent until 2023.

What about the 75-year deficit?

The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $11.4 trillion in present value and is $0.7 trillion more than the measured level of $10.7 trillion a year ago.

So this is up $700 billion in one year.  That is more than the national debt increased last year.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Glock Airsoft Pistol



It shoots pellets.

Believe in Britain

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Timeline of Orlando events



This was published on June 13.   You can see how small the place is.  Sorry, I don't believe there were 320 people inside the club, or that there were 30 people hiding in a one-stall bathroom.

Something obviously happened, but the numbers were greatly exaggerated.

Questions about the Orlando Massacre

Paul Craig Roberts doubts the official story.  I don't really, but I think he has some valid concerns and questions and here are some of them.

1.  To start off with, the big question, are you allowed to question the official version of events like this, or is asking questions forbidden and mark you as a hateful "denier"?
I think it is a tragedy what happened, but I think people should be allowed to question it.

2.  Where are pictures of dead bodies and bloody victims? Or of the many ambulances that must have been outside?  Why were there pictures of supposedly injured persons being carried away by civilians? This looks staged.  There surely must have been many emergency personnel on hand.

I think this is the question that makes people skeptical.  The press and police obviously don't want to release any graphic photos out of respect for the victims.  But it does make me wonder - are there any pictures of the scene that night that have been released?

Additional response.  There are many photos of numerous police cars that were rushing to the scene, and some of those have pictures of ambulances.

3.  Were there multiple shooters or just one?  How do they know there was only one shooter?

4. Why did it take the police so long to respond?  The shooting started at 2am and the police didn't try to enter until 5am.  Why?

5.  Why were some of the witnesses interviewed actors?  The shooter himself was an actor.  That seems suspicious.  Also Luis Burbano, who gave several interviews, is a professional actor.

6.  The nightclub doesn't look that big.  How were so many people killed and injured?  What is the capacity of the club?  They must have been packed in tightly, but if so, wouldn't it have been harder to shoot them?  Didn't anyone try to escape or rush the shooter?  Surely he had to take a break to reload.

7.  How did the shooter actually die?  Did he shoot himself, or did the police shoot him?

8.  The shooter worked as a security guard and had licenses to carry weapons.  How would additional gun control have stopped him from getting guns?

9.  I'm trying not to be insensitive here but I just have to ask.  Were the victims actual people?  Do we know anything about any of them besides their names?

There is more information about some of them.  Christopher "Drew" Leinonen had a massive funeral at a Episcopal cathedral in Orlando.  However, apparently, his gay partner Juan Guerrero will have a separate funeral.

There are more questions, but this is a good start.  I would like to be able to convince Paul Craig Roberts or at least provide more information.

Here is more skepticism.

====================
Additional thoughts and question:
I've look at pictures and again I get the impression that the place was not that large.  From the sequence of events, the shooting starts about 1:58am and continues until 2:02am when police and SWAT team arrive and he barricades himself in the small bathroom with hostages.  He shoots some people in the bathroom but there are several hostages, who are pulled out later by the SWAT team.  So the "live fire" event only lasts about 5 minutes.  He had a "Sig Sauer MCX .223-caliber rifle", which has a capacity of 30 rounds, and a "Glock 17 9mm semi-automatic pistol", with a capacity of 17 rounds.  He wouldn't have had time to re-load, and he didn't use all of the rounds.  So he killed and wounded over 100 people in a 5 minute period of time with less than 50 rounds.    The initial reports said that 20 were killed.

I believe that some people were killed at the club that night, maybe 10 or so, but the numbers are being greatly exaggerated by the police and media.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Thursday, June 16, 2016

How Bitcoin Works

Bitcoin Boom



















Source: http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Bitcoin is booming right now.  On May 16, the price was $453.41.  On June 16 (today) it is now $774.59.  That is an increase of 70% in a single month!

Sunday, June 12, 2016

The Forecaster



This is a very strange movie about a very strange person, Martin Armstrong.  And it is subtitled in Swedish.  It is kind of boring.  But I can't quite stop watching, that is fast-forwarding and watching for a few seconds before fast-forwarding again.  Is there some deep financial pattern based on pi?  It seems like his luck has run out on forecasting. But he was very accurate before.  Why?

Friday, June 10, 2016

Deja vu all over again

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/its-2000-all-over-again
"it’s year 2000 all over again. That was when the tech bubble popped and sent us to an ugly bear market and recession."

I previously thought that there was a 7 year cycle, but maybe there is an 8 year cycle.  Or maybe it is Martin Armstrong's 8.6 year cycle (3140 days).

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Monday, June 6, 2016

Helicopter Money: There IS such a thing as a free lunch

First of all, read this article as background information:  Why Helicopter Money is a "Free Lunch".  I just browsed through it fairly quickly and need to read it again in depth.

But try to suspend logical thinking for a minute and follow this thought experiment:  What if the U.S. government issued non-interest bearing perpetual bonds, let's say in denominations of $1,000?  They would be in effect be $1,000 bills, but issued by the government, not the Fed, and they wouldn't be anonymous like cash is.  And then the Fed would offer to buy them at face to maintain their value.  (This transaction would be an increase in the Fed's assets - U.S. debt, and a corresponding increase in its liabilities). And then with the newly created wealth, do something useful to close the "output gap", which is described as:

"Fiat money can then be used at no cost to the consolidated public sector balance sheet as a way to mobilize unemployed or underemployed real resources and to accelerate price and wage dynamics in heavily indebted economies suffering from large output gaps and price deflation. HM is a “free lunch” in the simple sense that, if it works and succeeds in closing the output gap, people won’t have to repay it through higher taxes or undesired (above optimal) inflation."

Voila!  Free lunch.  You just created money out of nothing that does not require interest payments or higher taxes or inflation.

Now, second thought experiment:  What if the Fed created a bunch (say a trillion dollar's worth) of $1,000 bills, similar to above, but with the requirement that every transfer of them be recorded on a special website, to keep the money launderers and drug cartels from using them?  And suppose the U.S. government guaranteed them (without interest), and this was added to the national debt (to keep everything balanced).  I'm sure it would require an Act of Congress to do.  Wouldn't this be the equivalent of the previous thought experiment?  And wouldn't it be the equivalent of fiscal policy, except it wouldn't require interest payments?  Now, spend it on something "useful", and voila!

Ok, third thought experiment.  What if there was a special one-time tax credit, which would give a $10,000 voucher to every taxpayer (and $20,000 to married couples), and it could be spent only on paying down a pre-existing mortgage or on payment of an existing residential lease, and figure out something for homeless people to be fair.  The Housing Payment Assistance Act.  This would reduce the amount of mortgage debt outstanding.  Everyone would benefit.  What would the cost be?  Say 200 million taxpayers times $10,000 each totalling $2 trillion.

And fourth thought experiment.  Eliminate the interest on excess reserves paid to big banks.  Ok, it isn't that much, I previously estimated it at $12 billion per year, and I'm sure it means something to the banks, but bear with me.  Most of the excess reserves came from previous rounds of quantitative easing.  How does this differ from helicopter money, except the "helicopter drop" is normal government deficit spending?  So is "helicopter money" the equivalent of deficit spending?