Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Spider's Web


Spider's Web. Expose on the City of London.

Monday, November 19, 2018

The Exchange Stabilization Fund


This is very interesting stuff.

Eleven year cycle

Oct 9, 2007: DJIA peaks at 14,164.
Oct 3, 2018: DJIA peaks at 26,828.

Recession begins:  December 2007.  (The start of the recession wasn't officially declared until 12/1/2008 by the NBER).
Recession begins:  December 2018

Stock market meltdown:  Monday, Sept 28, 2008 (Rosh Hashanah)
Stock market meltdown:  Monday, Sept 30, 2019 (day after Rosh Hashanah).

See also:  11 year cycle
Are we in an 11 year cycle?


Doubling the Debt to the Public

It looks like Debt to the Public is about to hit $16 trillion, a nice binary number, within the next two months.  It currently (11/19/18) is at $15.941 trillion.  It hit $8 trillion on 3/1/2010, during the recovery from the Great Recession.

But when did it first hit $4 trillion?  That would be 11/28/2003, according to the Treasury website.
So it took about 6.3 years to double from $4 trillion to $8 trillion, and about 8.7 years to double again.  So it should hit $32 trillion about 12/31/2028 (about 9 years from now).  It will take only 5 more doublings to reach $1024 trillion.  At 9 years per doubling, that is in 2073.

Is this sustainable?  What if Treasury decides to default on the $1 quadrillion National Debt, what will be the impact on our world?  How can we prevent this cataclysmic event from happening? We already decided that the answer is not to cut any spending and that Social Security is sacrosanct.

Who owes the debt?  Personally, I disclaim any responsibility for it.  What about you?  Are you willing to be a good debt slave and pay up your $2.5 million share?  Why is nobody talking about this?


Friday, November 16, 2018

Debt blow out

I'm sort of obsessed with the national debt, which is why I started this blog.  I think if it grows just a little bit, that it might be sustainable indefinitely, and we can truly enjoy the free lunch.  If it grows too fast, however, then the laws of compound interest and exponential hyperinflation will take over and the whole thing will crash.  I think the growth should stay within 0.6% per month, which by the rule of 72 means a doubling every 10 years.  Any faster than this indicates danger.

Oct 31, 2018 ended with $15.843 trillion of Debt Held by the Public.  So I would allow a very generous $95 billion of government deficit spending for the month. 

Well guess what.  The month is only half over and the Debt Held by the Public is at $15.942 trillion.  so we have already deficit-spent $99 billion this month.  At this rate we will hit $16 trillion within a month.

So I think it is out of control.  We usually have a surplus in January, so maybe things will slow down a little.  But as of now, we are going too fast.

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

The 3-Year Hits 3%

Today (11/7/18) the yield on a 3-year Treasury bond was at 3.03%. 

When was the last time it was above 3%?  That would be 7/25/08, when it was at 3.01%.  The high for the 3-year in 2008 was 6/13/08 at 3.38%.

Next up is the 2-year bond.  It is at 2.96%. When will it hit 3%?

Monday, November 5, 2018

Map of proposed tunnel system under Los Angeles


https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/5/16737488/boring-company-los-angeles-map-tunnels
They’re not just empty tunnels; instead, a car on the surface would dodge traffic by taking a sort of elevator down, which would then move as a “sled” through the tunnels at speeds of 150 miles per hour. Bus-like “pods” would move non-car owners around the city, too.