Monday, December 20, 2021

CICO does not work

Nobody ever reads this blog, which is fine by me.  I have occasionally written some articles about diet, and this is another one.  I have deliberately chosen a provocative title to make this interesting.

Obviously you can't eat vast quantities of food and expect to lose weight.  I am just criticizing those people who log everything into apps to figure out the calories and try to maintain a 200 calorie (or whatever) deficit per day, and then try to lose1 lb a week.

Not all calories are created equal.  How are calories determined? Basically, food scientists use a calorimeter, burn the food item to ashes, and then determine how much energy is released.  But the body doesn't use energy this way.

Read this article: https://www.ruled.me/too-much-protein-bad-for-ketosis/ which does a good job of explaining it.

Basically, think of eating and digesting food as a chemical process.  Your body needs a certain number of calories each day to survive (but that number is less than you think, and you don't have to consume food every day to meet that number).  Let's say that say that number is 800 calories.  Your digestive system will turn all food you eat either into blood sugar or fat.  (Any carbs will be turned into sugar).  An excess of blood sugar will trigger insulin.  An excess of fat will trigger glucagon.  "Insulin decreases ketone production while glucagon stimulates it."

So the ideal diet (for someone trying to lose weight via ketosis) is an almost unlimited amount of fat, limited protein, and almost no carbs.  How much protein should a person eat?  The rule of thumb is 0.8 grams of protein per kilograms of body weight per day, which is 0.36 grams per pound.  So a 200 lb man would need 72 grams of protein per day. One 5 ounce can of tuna has 26 grams.  Turkey breast has 5g per ounce. A quarter pound (4 oz)  hamburger has 31g of protein  So that is 3 cans of tuna per day or 14 ounces of turkey or 9 ounces of hamburger.   

What happens to the excess protein?  Read the article above. There isn't a simple answer to this.  Excess protein generally doesn't spike insulin in the same way that carbs do, but it will increase it slightly.  It depends on the insulin sensitivity of the person.  If you are insulin resistant, like a diabetic or obese person, then you need much insulin.  If you are insulin sensitive, then you don't need as much insulin. The excess protein is mostly stored as glycogen, but at some point, if you eat way too much, it is treated just like a carb.

What happens if you eat too many carbs?  They are first stored as glycogen at a 1 to 4 or 1 to 5 ratio.  So 1/2 lb of excess carbs can cause (temporary) weight gain of 2 lbs.

What happens if you eat too much fat?  Generally not a problem, however you could get fatty liver disease if you have a damaged liver (from drinking too much alcohol).

So back to the original question - if I am saying CICO doesn't work, then what does work? Well, to figure out the exact formula, you would need to know your maintenance calories and you would need your insulin sensitivity number.  And you would need to know how healthy your liver is.

So I would scrap CICO.  Instead be very strict about carbs and rate yourself on a pass/fail basis.  (If you eat more than a trivial amount of carbs you fail).  Measure grams of protein instead.  Since there are 4 calories per gram of protein, aim for about 300 calories (4*72) per day from protein.  And totally ignore fat, except there should be an upper limit, of maybe 150 grams of fat per day.  One ounce of butter has 12g of fat, so don't eat more than about 12 ounces per day.  (It is really hard to eat that much fat without carbs).

So there you go.  The only thing you should be measuring is protein.  Of course, if you insist you can lose weight while eating carbs, then more power to you.

Disclaimer:  I am not a registered dietician and this is not medical advice.

Friday, December 10, 2021

The budget deficit in November was $193 Billion

The federal budget deficit totaled $358 billion in October and November 2021, the first two months of fiscal year 2022, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $71 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were 24 percent higher than during the same period in fiscal year 2021; outlays increased by 4 percent. 

The federal government incurred a deficit of $193 billion in November 2021, CBO estimates— $48 billion more than the deficit in November 2020.  CBO estimates that receipts in November 2021 totaled $281 billion—$61 billion (or 28 percent) more than those in the same month last year. Total spending in November 2021 was $474 billion, CBO estimates—$109 billion more than last year.  Payments of refundable tax credits increased by $18 billion.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-12/57613_MBR.pdf

Total outlays for October and November were $923 billion.  If this trend continue, total spending for FY2022 will be about $5.5 trillion, which is much less than last year's $6.8 trillion.  However, the infrastructure bill will increase that number.

Friday, December 3, 2021

The Power of the Powerless

Read it at: https://news.gab.com/2021/11/29/the-power-of-the-powerless/

“The post-totalitarian system touches people at every step, but it does so with its ideological gloves on. This is why life in the system is so thoroughly permeated with hypocrisy and lies: government by bureaucracy is called popular government; the working class is enslaved in the name of the working class; the complete degradation of the individual is presented as his or her ultimate liberation; depriving people of information is called making it available; the use of power to manipulate is called the public control of power; and the arbitrary abuse of power is called observing legal code; the repression of culture is called its development; the expansion of imperial influence is presented as support for the oppressed; the lack of free expression becomes the highest form of freedom; farcical elections become the highest form of democracy; banning independent thought becomes the most scientific of world views; military occupation becomes fraternal assistance. Because the regime is captive to its own lies, it must falsify everything.”

So what is Havel’s solution to this madness?

Not politics. He mentions several times that it’s useless to participate in a rigged political system with fixed outcomes. Instead, he calls for the same thing I am calling for right now: the formation of a parallel systems.

Thursday, December 2, 2021

M5 as of 11/30/2021

M5 is my proprietary measure of money supply.  (I can't remember at the moment why this is M5 and not M4).  It should increase less than 8% per year or it signals hyperinflation.  

As of 11/30/2021:

M2 (M2SL as of 10/1/21): 21,187.1
Public Debt (as of 10/29/21): 22,645.9
Fed Held (as of 11/3/21) -5,578.9
-----------------
38,254.1

On 9/30/2021, this number was at 37,636.4, so this is up 618 billion since then, and on 10/31/2021 it was at 38,087.4, and is up 167 billion since then.  On a monthly basis we are good.  On an annual basis (since 9/30/21), this is about a 9.8% increase and is too high.

In December, the debt ceiling will be raised and the stimulus bill passed and this is going to soar.

Monday, November 15, 2021

The supply chain disruptions will continue until morale improves

 https://dailyreckoning.com/supply-chain-disruptions-will-continue/

When will that supply chain backlog clear? The answer is never. If there are more coming in than you can unload and you have an existing backlog that’s getting worse, it will never clear. ... Supply chain disruptions are a very big deal. The problem is pervasive. It’s not going away anytime soon because it would require undoing decades of globalization. You’re going to have to get used to it. When I say get used to it, I don’t mean tough luck. I just mean that this problem is going to continue.

Sunday, November 14, 2021

The Budget Deficit in October 2021 was $167 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $167 billion in October, CBO estimates, $117 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Revenues in October were $285 billion, $47 billion (or 20 percent) more than receipts last year, largely because payments of individual income and payroll taxes increased. Outlays this October were $70 billion (or 70 percent) less than in the same month last year.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-11/57539-MBR.pdf

You have to do your own math here because the CBO report doesn't explain this.  If the deficit is $167 billion, and revenues are $285 billion, then outlays were $452 billion in October 2021.

Total outlays in FY 2021 were $6,818 billion or about $570 billion per month.  So spending "only" $452 billion in October is a step in the right direction.

Saturday, November 6, 2021

M5 as of October 31 2021

As of 10/31/2021:

M2 (as of 9/1/21): 20,983.6
Public Debt (as of 10/29/21): 22,637.0
Fed Held (as of 11/3/21) -5,533.2
-----------------
Total 38,087.4

On 9/3/2021, this number was at 37,636.4, so this is up 451 billion since then.  This is a 1.2% increase in only one month, and the annualized rate is 15.4%.  This is unsustainable and will lead to hyperinflation.  Basically, the limit I see is 8% per year, which by the rule of 72 will lead to a doubling in 9 years.  I don't think the money supply should expand any more than that.

And this is before the stimulus packages get passed.

Monday, October 25, 2021

And It's Gone

 The debt limit was at $28.428 trillion since July 31, 2021.  To avert a crisis, McConnell agreed to raise the debt limit by $480 billion, which was supposed to fund the government through December 3, 2021.  Biden signed this on October 14.

How long do you think it would take the government to spend the $480 billion?  Well, the Debt to the Penny limit hit $28.908 trillion on October 22.  So it only took 8 days.  

Friday, October 8, 2021

The Budget Deficit in September 2021 was $59 billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $59 billion in September 2021, CBO estimates— $65 billion less than the shortfall in September 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.8 trillion [actually $2.770 trillion] in fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$362 billion less than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2020. Although outlays rose by an estimated $265 billion (or 4 percent), revenues rose more—by an estimated $627 billion (or 18 percent). https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-10/57476-MBR.pdf

The outlays for FY 2021 were 6,817, which is 265 billion more than the 6,552 in 2020. Net Interest on the Public Debt was $413 billion in fy-2021, up 25 billion or 6.6%.

Monday, October 4, 2021

Crash Alert - D minus 14

 I started this blog many years ago because I was concerned that our financial system was not stable and would crash.  I love a good doom and gloom forecast so let's start the countdown clock.

If you look through my archives, I have done this four times before.  Once on a countdown to December 21,2012, which was significant on the Mayan calendar.  There was also a fiscal cliff looming on January 1, 2013. Nothing happened on December 21, 2012, and the fiscal cliff was resolved through extraordinary measures and passage of a temporary debt limit suspension on February 4, 2013.  

The second time I did a doom and gloom countdown was for September 11, 2015 based on a 7 year jubilee cycle since the 2008 crash, but nothing happened.

The third time was for September 11, 2018, which was basically the same event delayed, but also based on a 17 year double business cycle.  Again nothing happened.

The fourth time was for September 30, 2019, based on the failure to reach a resolution on government spending and on the debt ceiling breach.  But this was resolved on August 2, 2019 with a debt limit suspension until July 31, 2021 which leads us to our current crisis.

So my track record, thank God, is not too good.  But on to the current crisis.

As of today, October 4, the system will likely crash on October 18, 2021, which is 14 days away.  On that date, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the government will run out of cash.  President Biden is insistent that he can't do anything without Republican support, and he refuses to consider reconciliation as a way out.  McConnell is insistent that the Democrats can act without Republican support.

What makes this event different is that the two sides are so entrenched.  The Republicans are hardened in their approach.  But the President thinks he can bully them into an agreement, which I think is unlikely.  What will probably happen is that Yellen will find that she can extend that deadline, and then the Democrats will fold.  But as of now, it looks like there is a 90% chance of a crash.

Update 10/8/21: The situation is resolved for now because McConnell and 10 other Republican Senators caved and agreed to a $480 billion increase in the debt ceiling, which will give the Treasury less than 2 months of breathing room.  The doesn't resolve the situation however because the debt ceiling will hit again in December.  But that is a long ways away, so who cares right?  Continue profligate unnecessary spending comrades as the economy depends on it.

Friday, October 1, 2021

M5 as of September 30 2021

Here is my measure of money supply as of the end of the 2021 fiscal year.  Usually I would wait a few more days, but the debt won't increase any more.

As of 9/30/2021:

M2 (as of 8/1/21): 20,797.0

Public Debt (as of 9/29/21): 22,270.5

Fed Held (as of 9/29/21) -5,431.1

-----------------

Total 37,636.4

One year ago, on 9/30/2020, this number was at 35,296.8, so this is up only 6.6% since then.  Not bad at all.  But just wait until the debt limit is lifted and the $5 trillion of stimulus passes.  

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Depression or stagflation

 Federal outlays are likely to exceed receipts by around $500bn (2.2% of annual GDP) in total over October and November. If Congress fails to raise the limit, the Treasury would need to reduce outlays by that amount, a reduction of more than 40%. Absent an immediate resolution, the US - already addicted to trillions in government transfer payments - would quickly spiral into a consumer-led depressionhttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sounds-red-alert-over-debt-ceiling-upcoming-deadline-looks-risky-2011-debt-limit

Assuming that this scenario is avoided by the Democrats passing a massive stimulus bill, then stagflation phase 1 will kick in, similar to the period of 1965-1968.  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stagflation-phase-1-begins-democrats-scramble-pass-largest-fiscal-stimulus-all-time

I like trying to find historical analogies.  Is Biden like Johnson?  Not in the sense of mental acuity, but in the sense of what he is doing to the economy by causing stagflation, which cursed this country from the late 1960 until 1980 when Paul Volcker killed it with shock therapy, which caused a depression.

This seems on point: "How bad was the period of the Great Inflation? The inflation rate, a mere 1 percent in 1965, hit 14 percent by 1980. Unemployment trended up from a low of 3.5 percent (annual average) in 1969 to 9.7 percent in 1982. The stock market was in the dumps. Oil prices jumped off the charts. Presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter became desperate enough to tinker with price controls, the results being disastrous." https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-2005/volckers-handling-of-the-great-inflation-taught-us-much


Saturday, September 11, 2021

We can’t go bankrupt

 “We are not broke as a nation. We are not bankrupt. We can’t go bankrupt. We absolutely cannot go bankrupt because we have the power to create as much money as we need to spend to serve the American people,” Chairman of the Budget Committee Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY) said during Thursday’s [9/9/2021] Budget Reconciliation markup.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/09/10/democrat-budget-committee-chairman-we-have-power-to-create-as-much-as-we-need-to-spend/

Thursday, September 9, 2021

The Budget Deficit in August 2021 was $173 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $173 billion in August 2021, CBO estimates— $27 billion less than the shortfall in August 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.7 trillion [actually 2.713 trillion\ in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$295 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. 

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-09/57419-MBR.pdf

Note that outlays fiscal ytd are $6.299 trillion, which is higher than last year at this point, $6.054 trillion.

The CBO projects that in FY 2022 that revenues will sharply increase and outlays will sharply decrease (to $5.544 trillion), to the point where the deficit in 2022 will drop to only $1.153 trillion.  This is impossible because when the government gets used to spending lots of money, it is very unlikely for the amount to decrease.  Unless the government defaults in October, and we don't want to talk about that.

Thursday, September 2, 2021

2021 Social Security Trustees Report

 Read it here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/

Here is the most important quote from it: 

The OASI and DI funds are separate entities under law. The report also presents information that combines the reserves of these two funds in order to illustrate the actuarial status of the Social Security program as a whole. The hypothetical combined OASI and DI funds would be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the combined funds' reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 78 percent of scheduled benefits.

What is likely to happen is that all of the benefits will continue to be paid, and the extra 22% will just increase the deficit.  I don't see SS benefits being cut.  They will continue to be paid 100%, at least until the whole system collapses, or more likely explodes like a supernova.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

M5 as of August 31 2021

 M5 is my measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of August 31, 2021

M2 (as of 7/1/21): 20,534.6

Public Debt (as of 8/30/21): 22,246.9

Fed Held (as of 8/25/21): -5,346.3

 --------------------------

Total 37,435.2

This is lower than last month, which was at 37,552.9.

I think there is too much liquidity in the system and the Fed should sell off some of its Treasury bond holdings.  Anyways this number doesn't look bad.  But it should soar in the new fiscal year beginning on October 1, when $5 trillion of new stimulus bills will flood the system.  That is, if the government doesn't default on its existing debt.

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

New York's loss is Miami's gain

 https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/miami-new-diaspora

A wave of refugees is washing up on Miami’s shores, only now it’s disgruntled New Yorkers, fleeing the city’s draconian COVID restrictions and pessimistic politics

Friday, August 13, 2021

The budget deficit in July 2021 was $301 billion.

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $301 billion in July 2021, CBO estimates— $238 billion more than the shortfall in July 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.5 trillion [actually 2.539 trillion] in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$269 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-08/57349-MBR.pdf

Note that outlays fiscal ytd are $5.856 trillion, which is higher than last year at this point, $5.631 trillion.

Where is the money going?

  • Outlays for certain refundable tax credits were $318 billion higher than in the first 10 months of 2020.3 That increase was mostly driven by spending for the recovery rebates that were provided by the CAA and ARPA. 
  • Outlays from the Coronavirus Relief Fund were $211 billion in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2021, compared with $149 billion during the same period last year. The CARES Act, which was enacted in March 2020, authorized $150 billion for the Treasury to provide grants to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to offset expenses stemming from the pandemic. Most of those funds were disbursed in April 2020. Nearly all of the 2021 outlays stem from the additional $362 billion provided by ARPA. 
  • Spending by the Department of Agriculture (included in “Other” in Table 3) increased by $47 billion, or 31 percent, largely because outlays for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program increased and because payments were made to farmers through the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program to cover increased marketing costs associated with the pandemic. 
  • Payments for emergency rental assistance (included in “Other”) have totaled $33 billion in fiscal year 2021. State and local governments use grants provided under the CAA and ARPA to aid low-income households unable to pay rent because of the pandemic. There was no such spending in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2020. 
  • Spending by the Department of Homeland Security (included in “Other”) was $23 billion, or 43 percent, higher than in the same period in 2020. That rise is mostly the result of increased spending from the Disaster Relief Fund related to the pandemic, including payments of unemployment benefits under the provisions of the Presidential memorandum issued in August 2020.

Tuesday, August 3, 2021

M5 as of July 31 2021

M5 is my measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 7/31/21:

M2 (as of 6/1/21):  20,388.9

Public Debt (as of 7/30/21):  22,427.7

Fed Held (as of 7/28/21): -5,263.7

-------------------------------------

Total: 37,552.9

On 6/30/21, this was at 37,516.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  For July, this was up only 36.4.  For the fiscal year to date, this is up 2,256.10 or 7.67% on an annualized basis.  I am arbitrarily putting the danger zone at 8% increase or about $250 billion/mo, so this barely squeaks by as being sustainable.

There are two important numbers I am ignoring in this calculation.  First, the cash balance of the Treasury at the Fed.  This is about $537 billion as of 7/31/21.  Also, the amount of reverse repos with the Fed.  This number was about $902 billion at month end.

The debt limit came back to life at month end, and now stands at about $28.5 trillion.  It will remain there until raised by Congress, which will probably happen around October 1, when then new fiscal year begins.  There could be a government shutdown starting on October 1, unless Congress can agree on a budget and new debt limit.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Republicans are once again playing stupid, dangerous games with America’s sovereign credit

 Read: https://newrepublic.com/article/163067/republicans-debt-ceiling-blackmail-credit-default

'In recent years, a number of idiotic right-wingers have actually endorsed defaulting on the debt. Some argue that the people who lent money to the federal government were fools who deserve nothing. Others contend that it will force a massive slashing of federal spending and that the budget will be balanced overnight—bills could only be paid as tax revenue flows into the Treasury (which it does on a very irregular basis). They don’t care that the Treasury lacks the legal authority to decide who gets paid and who doesn’t or that there’s no rational way for it to do so if it had such authority.'

I will only comment that default is inevitable, although I don't see this happening for at least another 20 years.  It would be better to try to extend this date through cutting spending.  The author of the above piece assumes that the government will never default unless done voluntarily.  A partial default would actually be a good thing, and thinking about these issues is a wise move, not a "stupid, dangerous game".

=====================

Does the President have inherent authority under the 14th Amendment to raise the debt limit?

When Republicans came very, very close to defaulting on the debt 10 years ago, a number of legal scholars argued that the Fourteenth Amendment and the president’s inherent constitutional authority could be used by President Obama to simply ignore the debt limit and sell whatever bonds were necessary to finance the spending Congress had already authorized. These included Garret Epps of the University of Baltimore, Michael Abramowicz of George Washington University, Eric Posner of the University of Chicago and Adrian Vermeule of Harvard, Neil Buchanan of the University of Florida and Michael Dorf of Cornell, Jacob Charles of Duke University, and numerous others. Former President Bill Clinton agreed.

https://newrepublic.com/article/163067/republicans-debt-ceiling-blackmail-credit-default

I think he probably does but this is not a good thing.  It would be the equivalent of a king raising taxes without the consent of Parliament.  

Monday, July 19, 2021

The recession only lasted 2 months

See: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/nber-tells-14-million-jobless-americans-recession-officially-ended-april-2020-shortest

"The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020," says the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.. "The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record."

I think there could be a double-dip, like the early 1980s.

Friday, July 16, 2021

44 to 48 year cycle

 I've mentioned before that there seems to be a 44 or 48 year cycle, with Trump being a repeat of Nixon and Harding.  And now we have the incompetent Biden, who reminds us of Jimmy Carter and Herbert Hoover.  (I am skipping over Ford and Coolidge).

So just for fun, let's look at events 44 years ago, and then 48 years before that.  (I am not trying to say that there will be a stock market crash this fall or the start of another Great Depression, but I am looking for other commonalities).

July 2021 - Inflation is back like it hasn't been since the 1970s, with the CPI (consumer price index up 5.4% over the last year).  Gas prices are soaring (the energy index is up 24.5% over the past year).  New York was heavily flooded by Tropical Storm Elsa.  The Covid pandemic continues.

July 1977 - The CPI for July 1977 was 0.49% for an annualized rate of 6.83%. The New York City blackout of July 13, 1977 lasts for 25 hours, resulting in looting and disorder.  There was a fake swine flu pandemic in 1976.

July 1929 - Nothing comparable happened.  The inflation rate for 1929 was 0.0%.  There was an influenza epidemic in 1928-1929 which killed an estimated 50,000 people in the United States over what would be expected (excess mortality).

Ok, so much for that theory.  But I wonder, did inflation ever soar during the roaring 1920s?

===========================

Update: Politico sees a comparison with FDR.  So look at July 1933.

In a city of interest groups, “the descendants [of FDR's cabinet],” as they refer to themselves in frequent press releases and op-eds, are among the more unusual. They are determined to polish the legacy of America’s 32nd president by pushing the 46th to embrace a legislative agenda as transformational as the New Deal. They want Joe Biden to embrace the idea of an “activist” government.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/01/fdr-cabinet-descendents-new-deal-biden-progressive-500659

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Another CBO update

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57344

This is similar to their previous update, but this has more graphs.  The funniest thing about it is this joke: "After spiking in 2021 and falling in 2022, inflation increases in 2023 and remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s long-run goal of 2 percent for several years."  The chart shows inflation spiking to about 2.5% in 2021 and then dropping back to 2% in 2022.  They need to talk to the Department of Labor which just showed inflation at 5.4% for the last year.  So this report is pure fantasy.

Total Societal Collapse by 2040

 Read: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9788957/MITs-1972-prediction-collapse-society-track-happen-2040-study-reveals.html

'At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical. If we do nothing about it, the quality of life goes down to zero,' [MIT Professor Jerry] Foster said in a 1973 ABC segment.  'Pollution becomes so seriously it will start to kill people, which in turn will cause the population to diminish, lower than it was in the 1900. At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilized life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist.'

See also https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Inflation officially hits 5.4% which is the highest since 1983

 The official chart the Department of Labor is here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm .  It shows that inflation for all items was 5.4%, and for energy it was 24.5%.

The cost of living adjustment (COLA) for social security recipients will be announced in October, and it may be as high as 6.1%.  In 1983, the COLA increase was 7.4%.  So this will be the highest increase in 39 years.

Monday, July 12, 2021

The Budget Deficit for June 2021 was $173 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $173 billion in June 2021, CBO estimates, compared with a shortfall of $864 billion in June 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.2 trillion [$2,237 trillion] in the first nine months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$508 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-07/57288-MBR.pdf

There are still 3 months left in the fiscal year, and the total deficit for FY 2021 should be about $2.7 trillion.  If the infrastructure stimulus bill passes, then the deficit will be higher.  The FY 2020 deficit was $3.1 trillion, so it is possible that the 2021 deficit will be higher than that, although the infrastructure bill will be spread out over several years.

Update (7/13/21):  Note that the YTD spending for FY 2021 is higher than this point last year: 5,293 in 2021 v 5,004 in 2020.  Revenues in 2021 are much higher than in 2020 which is why the deficit is lower.  

The latest CBO projections are that spending will drop sharply in 2022 (by about $1.3 trillion).  I consider this highly unlikely.  

Saturday, July 10, 2021

The Boiler Room


 

Friday, July 9, 2021

2021 Intergenerational Report from Australia

 Read it at: https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2021-intergenerational-report

This is a 40 year forecast for Australia.  Apparently it talks about the need to be more fiscally stable in the future by cutting spending and raising taxes, and this makes the MMTers mad, because they believe we can have a free lunch forever.  Read: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=47857

Thursday, July 8, 2021

New CBO Report

 The Congressional Budget Office issued a new report on July 1, 2021.  They project that the fiscal 2021 budget deficit will be $3.0 trillion (up from $2.3 trillion in their previous forecast) .  I estimated the 2021 deficit as $2.7 trillion so their projection is bigger than mine, that is, things are even worse than I anticipated.

For 2022, they project the deficit to be only $1.15 trillion, and then 2023 will be only $789 billion. These numbers are laughable low.  I don't think we will ever have an annual deficit of less than $1.5 trillion again.  

I'm not going to update my forecast right now.  Maybe after the infrastructure bill passes.

Friday, July 2, 2021

M5 as of June 30 2021

 M5 is my measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 6/30/21:

M2 (as of 5/1/21):  20,370.1

Public Debt (as of 6/30/21):  22,329.8

Fed Held (as of 6/30/21): -5,183.4

-------------------------------------

Total: 37,516.5

On 5/31/21, this was at 37,042.3 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8. So for May, it was up an annualized amout of 15.4%.  This number is up 2,219.7 fiscal year-to-date, which is an annual inflation rate of 9.4%.  Needless to say, this is not sustainable.

Inflation is complex and doesn't affect prices equally.  There is inflation in housing prices, energy, food, wages, etc.  But one factor is the rate of increase in the expanded money supply, and as I have shown that is increasing about 9% per year.



Saturday, June 26, 2021

Top Cities in the World for Qualify of Life

 This comes from Mercer but excluding cities whose metropolitan area is less than 1 million.  It's not bad, but cities in the same country tend to be clumped together.

London is at 36, and New York doesn't show up until 38.

1. Vienna, Austria

2. Zürich, Switzerland

3. Vancouver, Canada

4. Munich, Germany

5. Auckland, New Zealand

6. Düsseldorf/Cologne/Bonn, Germany

7. Frankfurt, Germany

8. Copenhagen, Denmark

9. Sydney, Australia

10. Amsterdam, Netherlands

11. Berlin, Germany

12. Toronto, Canada

13. Melbourne, Australia

14. Ottawa, Canada

15. Hamburg, Germany

16. Perth, Australia

17. Montréal, Canada

18. Nuremburg, Germany

19. Stockholm, Sweden

20. Oslo, Norway

21. Singapore, Singapore

22. Stuttgart, Germany

23. Brussels, Belgium

24. Adelaide, Australia

25. Helsinki, Finland

26. Calgary, Canada

27. Dublin, Ireland

28. San Francisco, US

29. Brisbane, Australia

30. Boston, US

31. Lisbon, Portugal

32. Honolulu, US

33. Paris, France

34. Lyon, France

35. Milan, Italy

36. London, UK

37. Barcelona, Spain

38. New York, US

39. Edinburgh, UK

40. Madrid, Spain

41. Seattle, US

42. Glasgow, UK 

43. Osaka/Kobe, Japan

44. Tokyo, Japan

45. Birmingham, UK

46. Chicago, US

47. Washington, US

48. Philadelphia, US

49. Yokohama, Japan

50. Rome, Italy

51. Pittsburgh, US

52. Leipzig, Germany

53. Minneapolis, US

54. Nagoya, Japan

55. Dallas/Ft Worth, US

56. Atlanta, US

57. Houston, US

58. Los Angeles, US

59. Miami, US

60. Prague, Czech Republic

61. St. Louis, US

62. Hong Kong

63. Detroit, US

64. Dubai, United Arab Emirates

65. Budapest, Hungary

66. Seoul, South Korea

67. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

68. Montevideo, Uruguay

69. Warsaw, Poland

70. Taipei, Taiwan

71. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

72. Durban, South Africa

73. Athens, Greece

74. Riga, Latvia

75. Buenos Aires, Argentina

76. San Juan, Puerto Rico

77. Santiago, Chile

78. Busan, South Korea

79. Cape Town, South Africa

80. Johannesburg, South Africa

81. Panama City, Panama

82. Zagreb, Croatia

83. Wroclaw, Poland

84. Johor Bahru/Iskandar, Malaysia

85. Taichung, Taiwan

86. Shanghai, China

87. Tel Aviv, Israel

88. Muscat, Oman

89. Brasilia, Brazil

90. San José, Costa Rica

91. Bucharest, Romania

92. Doha, Qata

93. Monterrey, Mexico

94. Tunis, Tunisia

95. Asunción, Paraguay

96. Sofia, Bulgaria

97. Rabat, Morocco

98. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

99. São Paulo, Brazil

100. Beijing, China

Best Cities in the World

 Source: https://www.bestcities.org/

1. London

2. New York

3. Paris

4. Moscow

5. Tokyo

6. Dubai

7. Singapore

8. Barcelona

9. Los Angeles

10. Madrid

11. Rome

12. Chicago

13. Toronto

14. San Francisco (ex San Jose)

15. Abu Dhabi, UAE

16. St Petersburg, Russia

17. Amsterdam

18. Berlin

19. Prague, Czech Republic

20. Washington DC

21. Istanbul

22. Las Vegas

23. Doha, Qatar

24. Seoul

25. Sydney

26. Beijing

27. Miami

28. Munich, Germany

29. Milan, Italy

30. San Diego

31. Bangkok, Thailand

32. Vienna, Austria

33. Dublin

34. Vancouver

35. Boston

36. Zurich, Switzerland

37. Melbourne, Australia

38. Budapest, Hungary

39. Houston

40. Seattle

41. Montreal, Canada

42. Hong Kong

43. Frankfurt, Germany

44. Sao Paulo

45. Tel Aviv

46. Copenhagen, Denmark

47. Calgary, Canada

48. Orlando

49. Atlanta

50. Dallas

51. Hamburg, Germany

52. Osaka

53. Lisbon, Portugal

54. Austin

55. Phoenix

56. Naples, Italy

57. Oslo, Norway

58. Denver

59. Stockholm, Sweden

60. Philadelphia

61. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

62. Delhi, India

63. Buenos Aires, Argentina

64. San Jose

65. Brussels, Belgium

66. Portland, Oregon, US

67. Ottawa, Canada

68. Helsinki, Finland

69. Valencia, Spain

70. Brisbane, Australia

71. Warsaw, Poland

72. Minneapolis

73. Shanghai

74. Lyon, France

75. Adelaide, Australia

76. Edmonton, Canada

77. Marseille, France

78. Muscat, Oman

79. Athens, Greece

80. Stuttgart, Germany

81. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

82. Baltimore, Maryland, US

83. Auckland, New Zealand

84. Cologne, Germany

85. New Orleans, Louisiana, US

86. Kuwait City, Kuwait

87. Kiev, Ukraine

88. Hanover, Germany

89. Perth, Australia

90. Minsk, Belarus

91. Bucharest, Romania

92. Nashville, Tennessee, US

93. Dusseldorf, Germany

94. Manchester, UK

95. Sacramento, California, US

96. Glasgow, UK

97. Mexico City

98. Salt Lake City, Utah, US

99. Raleigh, North Carolina, US

100. Krakow, Poland

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

The Budget Deficit for May 2021 was $132 Billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $132 billion in May 2021, CBO estimates, compared with a $399 billion shortfall in May 2020. The federal budget deficit was $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$184 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were up by an estimated $587 billion (or 29 percent), but outlays rose more—by an estimated $771 billion (or 20 percent).  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-06/57193-MBR.pdf

So the deficit for May 2021 is much lower than that for May 2020, but the fiscal year to date deficit is still higher than last year at this point.  There are still 4 months left in the fiscal year, and if the average deficit is $150 billion per month then the total deficit for FY 2021 will be about $2.7 trillion.

Monday, June 7, 2021

Reverse Repo Madness

 The Fed is putting its foot on the gas (by printing money to purchase Treasury securities) and the brake (with reverse repo) at the same time: "The Fed is walking a thin tightrope between fighting off financial asset deflation (a stock and bond market crash).  To do this it needs to continue printing enormous sums of money.  But it also has to avoid the money printing from translating into Weimar-scale hyperinflation and a crash in the dollar.  Along with this, the Fed also needs to prevent the Fed funds rate from going negative. The RRP mechanism is the Fed’s attempt to “mop up” the excess liquidity that has accumulated in large pools at the spectrum of financial intermediaries (banks, money market funds, GSEs)."  https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-feds-reverse-repo-madness/

The result is a system that is very unstable.  It would be logical for the Fed to ease its purchases of treasuries to prevent excess liquidity, but that causes the stock market to drop, which the Fed doesn't want.  You would think that banks would have an incentive to loan more money to get a higher return, but businesses don't want to borrow.

I don't understand what is going on.  Maybe the situation will fix itself after the quarter end on June 30, but it is also possible that we will have a crash shortly.  It is also possible that we will have a burst of hyperinflation, where there is a one-time reset of many prices by 20-40%.  Read the link. 

"The inevitable conclusion is hyperinflation followed by a collapse of the dollar and the stock and bond markets. My bet is that it is too late to prevent the inevitable."

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

M5 as of May 31 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 5/31/21:

M2 (as of 4/01/21) = 20,108.6

Public Debt (as of 5/28/21) = 22,020.9

Fed Held (as of 5/26/21) = -5,087.2

----------------------------------------

Total = 37,042.3

On 4/30/21, this was at 36,937.8 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  This is up 104.5 during May and up 1,745.5 fiscal year to date, which is an annual inflation rate of 7.1%.  This is sustainable for the 4th month in a row.

I expected a huge jump in M2 which didn't happen, but the M2 is reported 2 months in arrears so this may show up next month.  The Public Debt actually dropped in May, which is very unusual.


Saturday, May 15, 2021

Crisis in 2041

 


Here is my latest projection showing that public debt will exceed 150% of GDP in 2041.  Compare to the previous forecast showing this would happen in 2049.

What is going to happen in 2041? Probably nothing.  We don't know exactly what the limits are.  But at some point it is clear that the system will totally break down.  For example, look at the interest projection in 2041, which I have as $1,800 (million), which is about 3.8% of GDP. The latest Long-Term Budget Outlook by the CBO predicts that the average amount of interest, as a percent of GDP, after 2041 will be 7.0%.  So for instance in 2043, if GDP is $50.1 trillion, then the interest paid in that year could be $3.5 trillion instead of the $2.0 trillion I have forecast in that year.  The CBO projects that the Debt Held By The Public in 2051 will be 202% of GDP, which is much higher than my forecast.  So my forecast above is conservative compared to what the CBO projects.

To go out a limb and do a little speculation, I think the dollar will be rejected internationally as a reserve currency after 2040, to be replaced by a cryptocurrency which does not currently exist.  And I think the American Empire will collapse, similar to how the Soviet Union collapsed, and by replaced by several countries. 

And this all may happen even sooner than my projection.  The above chart assumes long-term inflation of 3.5%, but we have good evidence that 8% is a better number to use.

===========

Update: This is what the CBO says is likely to occur after 2040:

Persistently rising debt as a percentage of GDP would also pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook, although financial markets currently do not reflect those concerns. In particular, that debt path would have these economic and financial effects:  1) It would increase the risk of a fiscal crisis—that is, a situation in which investors lose confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to service and repay its debt, causing interest rates to increase abruptly, inflation to spiral upward, or other disruptions—and  2) It would increase the likelihood of less abrupt, but still significant, adverse effects, such as expectations of higher rates of inflation, an erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar as an international reserve currency, and more difficulty in financing public and private activity in international markets. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038

Monday, May 10, 2021

The Budget Deficit for April 2021 was $225 Billion

 The federal government incurred a deficit of $225 billion in April 2021, CBO estimates—less than one-third the deficit in April 2020. The federal budget deficit was $1.9 trillion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$449 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Outlays were 22 percent higher and revenues were 16 percent higher from October through April than during the same period in fiscal year 2020.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-05/57127-MBR.pdf

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

M5 for April 30 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 4/30/21:

M2 (as of 3/01/21) = 19,896.5

Public Debt (as of 4/29/21) = 22,056.1

Fed Held (as of 4/28/21) = -5,014.8

----------------------------------------

Total = 36,937.8

On 3/31/21, this was at 36,698.8 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  This is up 239.0 during April and up 1,641.0 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 8.0%.

So actually I will call this SUSTAINABLE for the third month in a row because it is a hair below 8.0%.  If money supply only increased by $250 billion every month then I think we can live with the result.

However, note that M2 is 2 months behind because the Fed is hiding the current data.  But they can't do that forever.  When the March numbers are finally released at the beginning of June, they will show a huge increase.  I think M5 for May will show an increase of over $800 billion.

The Public Debt hits $22 Trillion

 As of 4/29/21, the public debt was at $22,056,055,138,417.67.

When did it first hit $11 trillion? On 5/31/12, within memory of this blog.  By the way, when did it first hit $5.5 trillion, one-half of $11 trillion?  On September 18, 2008, which was when the financial world almost collapsed during the global financial crisis.

So at current trends, this number will double every 9 years.  So it will hit $44 trillion on about May 1, 2030.  Add in another $6 trillion for governmental debt and this will mean the national debt is sure to hit $50 trillion about 1/1/30 , and then double every 9 years thereafter.

Monday, April 26, 2021

The National Debt is actually $123 Trillion

 See: https://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/Financial-State-of-the-Union-2020.pdf

"A new analysis of the latest available audited financial reports found the U.S. Government’s overall financial condition worsened by $9.84 trillion in 2020. Our measure of the government’s financial condition includes reported federal assets and liabilities, as well as promised, but not funded, Social Security and Medicare benefits. Our analysis includes $55.12 trillion in unfunded Medicare benefits and $41.20 trillion in unfunded Social Security benefits."

The total according to the above analysis is $123.11 trillion as of 9/30/2020 and this number goes up about $10 trillion/year.

The reason why the Treasury leaves these off the federal balance sheet is that Congress could pass laws to reduce or stop future benefits at any time.  But how likely is it that Congress would abolish Social Security and Medicare?  

Monday, April 12, 2021

The Budget Deficit for March 2021 was $658 Billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $658 billion in March 2021, CBO estimates— $539 billion more than the deficit in March 2020.  The federal budget deficit was $1.7 trillion in the first six months of fiscal year 2021, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—almost $1 trillion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-04/57018-MBR.pdf

I just wonder, have we ever had a monthly deficit of $1 trillion or more?  I don't think so, but it is coming.

======

The highest ever was in June 2020 with $863 billion deficit, then April 2020 with $737 billion deficit.  March 2021 is the 3rd highest ever.

Monday, April 5, 2021

M5 for March 31 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 3/31/21:

M2 (as of 2/1/21) = 19,669.8

Public Debt (as of 3/31/21) = 21,971.3

Fed Held (as of 3/31/21) = -4,942.3

----------------------------------------

Total = 36,698.8

On 2/28/21, this was at 36,442.6 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  This is up 256.2 during February and up 1,402.0 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 7.9%.

So actually I will call this SUSTAINABLE for the second month in a row.  If money supply only increased by $250 billion every month then I think we can live with the result.

But note that M2 is 2 months behind.  Obviously somebody at the Fed doesn't want to give the current numbers.  This was previously reported on a weekly basis.  And I am still expected a large jump when the stimulus financing comes in.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

The February 2021 Deficit was $321 Billion

 In February 2021, the Treasury had $246 billion in revenue and outlays of $558 billion for a deficit of $321 billion.  Fiscal year to date, the Treasury had $1,434 billion of revenue and outlays of $2,482 billion for a deficit of $1,048 billion. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/57031-MBR.pdf

So the average monthly deficit is about $200 billion, and the deficit for all of fiscal year 2021 should be about $2.4 trillion.

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

The National Debt will hit $78 Trillion by 2028

 "The growth of the US debt spending is projected to exceed $78 trillion in 2028. The US economy will implode with the rate of debt like this. It is a matter of time before this country implodes into bankruptcy. Everyone seems to think massive debt is meaningless. Until one day, the economy collapses Zimbabwe-style, and they’re affected personally in the worst way. They will keep on kicking the can, as long as possible, or until the payment on the DEBT will exceed the budgets of DOD, Medicare, and Social Security. The guard rails have truly been removed. There is only the desire to spend, borrow and print money. Digital money will change that even more. If they find a limit, the government doesn’t just meet that need; it smashes through it. We used to have these limits in place, but because of the pandemic, they are spending with an excuse. But when the pendulum swings the other way, the Republicans will have to get an even bigger stimulus because who will ever try to do a Billion dollar plan when Trillion-dollar deals are now the norm. The USA never intends to pay the debt. A mother of all wars is what they are planning for. The only way to default. This societal experiment known as “America” is about over, regardless of what they are telling you. The Great Reset means The Collapse of the US Empire." --https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2021/03/only-zero-interest-rates-qe-are-keeping.html

I agree with all of the preceding except the $78 trillion in 2028 number.  I would like to see the projections on that.  My latest calculation is that the public debt should hit $30 trillion in 2028, and with intragovernmental debt about $6 trillion, the total national debt should be about $36 trillion in 2028.  (It is currently about $28 trillion).  I agree that the US is headed for disaster, but I think the pace may be slower than the above author is projecting.

Thursday, March 4, 2021

The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook from the CBO

 This was just released by the CBO: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038

This is complete garbage and gobbledygook, designed to obfuscate rather than enlighten.  They state numbers only as a percentage of GDP, not in real numbers, yet they don't state what GDP is every year.  The word "trillion" is used only once in the entire document.  I can't tell after a quick perusal if they even include the current stimulus bill.

I will give them a tiny bit of credit for this one line in fine print on page 11:

  Gross Domestic Product at the End of the Period (Trillions of dollars) 22.0 32.9 46.8 66.0

The four numbers are the estimated GDP in the years 2021, 2031, 2041, and 2051.  They don't give any further details.  I guess you are supposed to interpolate.  There may be other CBO documents that state the estimated GDP but I don't see them referenced here.

I will wait until the current porkulus bill passes in a few days, and the Treasury issues debt to pay for it, which the Fed will buy.  So maybe sometime in May or June would be a good time to analyze this and do my own forecast.

===========

Update: Here is the last GDP forecast, issued by the CBO on Feb 11, 2021

Gross Domestic Product 21,000 21,951 23,082 24,066 25,127 26,249 27,359 28,425 29,506 30,623 31,751 32,933.

Each number is the end of year estimated GDP starting with 2020 and ending with 2031.

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

M5 for February 28 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 2/28/21:

M2 (as of 1/1/21) = 19,394.6 (From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)

Public Debt (as of 2/28/21) = 21,892.6

Feb Held (as of 2/24/21) = -4,844.6

----------------------------------------------

Total = 36,442.6

On 1/31/21, this was at 36,543.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8. So it actually dropped 100.9 during February and it is up 1,145.8 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 7.8%.

This actually is a great result and we can call it SUSTAINABLE.  However, note that the public debt is about to soar after the next stimulus package comes through.  Also the Treasury cash is being depleted so the Treasury isn't really borrowing right now.  Also note that the measurement of M2 by the Fed changed since the last time I looked this, so it isn't comparable.  I now have to use M2SL instead of M2.  So this hides some of the money supply increase.  But this will come back in March.  So consider February a calm before the storm.

Also, the total National Debt just hit $28 trillion.  It hit $27 trillion on 10/1/20, only 5 months ago.  And it will quickly hit $30 trillion as soon as the stimulus bill is passed.  When was the National Debt at $14 trillion?  Sometime in 2010.  So that is about a 10.5 year doubling time and that doesn't sound too bad.  But just wait until the national debt hits $30 trillion.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Patient Zero

Very early on, numerous indications were given and made public in the Chinese social media that “patient zero” of the COVID-19 infection chain was a young scientist from the “Wuhan Institute of Virology”. Her name is Yanling Huang, born on October 20, 1988. She has been a member of the “Wuhan Institute of Virology” since 2012 and has published at least six scientific papers at this institute address. Since the end of 2019 she has disappeared and her photo and profile have been deleted from the institute's website (as well as her personal website).

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

Friday, February 12, 2021

CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2021 to 2031

 https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/56970-Outlook.pdf

This is supposedly a forecast of the budget deficits, debt, revenues, and spending for the next 10 years.  It is completely unreliable and will be obsolete within a month when Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package is passed.  It projects the Debt Held By the Public to be $22,461 at the end of FY 2021.  It is currently $21.750 tn, and by the end of the fiscal year it will likely be above $25 trillion.  It projects inflation at 1-2% for the next 10 years when the actual rate will be closer to 10%.  It projects that the annual deficit will fall to as low as $905 billion in 2024, when the actual number will be likely $3 trillion or more.

If you enjoy reading government propaganda and being lied to, read it.

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

M5 for January 31

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 1/31/21:

M2 (as of 1/18/21) = 19,560.4

Public Debt (as of 1/31/21) = 21,749.2

Feb Held (as of 1/27/21) = -4,766.1

----------------------------------------------

Total = 36,543.5

 On 12/31/20, it was at 36,140.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  So it is up 403.0 for the month of January and up 1,246.7 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 10.6%.

Also note that the Public Debt didn't increase that much, from $21.63 trillion to $21.75 trillion. However, there was a sharp drop in Treasury cash, so Treasury is going to have to replenish their cash reserves in the next two months, which will cause the debt to soar.  I expect the debt to hit $22 trillion at least by the end of March.

The financial industrial complex created $403 billion out of thin air in only one month.  What would happen if this happens every month forever, but the rate of change actually increases? The total amount will double every 7 years.  I think the whole system can continue until we get to $1 quadrillion in about 40 years but it can't continue forever.  Anyways that is too much commentary.  I have vowed to only report the facts and not give political opinion.

Friday, January 15, 2021

Deja Vu all over again

House Impeachment Managers Deliver Articles To The Senate

The House of Representatives has delivered articles of impeachment against President Trump to the Senate, which is expected to begin a trial next week. Earlier in the day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi named seven Democratic members of Congress as the managers who will argue the case for impeachment. Those managers brought the articles to the Senate on Wednesday evening. "What is at stake here is the Constitution of the United States," Pelosi said in a press conference announcing the managers. Pelosi appointed Reps. Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Val Demings, Hakeem Jeffries, Sylvia Garcia and Jason Crow. Pelosi said Schiff will take the lead. "The emphasis is on litigators. The emphasis is on comfort level in the courtroom. The emphasis is making the strongest possible case to protect and defend our Constitution, to seek the truth for the American people," Pelosi said in a Wednesday press conference.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/15/796240568/house-set-to-vote-to-send-trump-impeachment-articles-to-senate

Date: January 15, 2020

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

M5 for December 31

I said I would shut down my blog, but I think this is important enough to note.

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 12/31/2020:

M2 (as of 12/21/20) = 19,197.0

Public Debt (as of 12/31/20) = 21,632.4

Fed Held = -4,688.9

---------------------------------------------

Total = 36,140.5

On 11/30/20, it was at 35,843.9 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  So it is up 296.6 for the month of November and up 843.7 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 9.9%.