Tuesday, March 2, 2021

M5 for February 28 2021

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 2/28/21:

M2 (as of 1/1/21) = 19,394.6 (From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)

Public Debt (as of 2/28/21) = 21,892.6

Feb Held (as of 2/24/21) = -4,844.6

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Total = 36,442.6

On 1/31/21, this was at 36,543.5 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8. So it actually dropped 100.9 during February and it is up 1,145.8 fiscal year to date.  This is an annual inflation rate of 7.8%.

This actually is a great result and we can call it SUSTAINABLE.  However, note that the public debt is about to soar after the next stimulus package comes through.  Also the Treasury cash is being depleted so the Treasury isn't really borrowing right now.  Also note that the measurement of M2 by the Fed changed since the last time I looked this, so it isn't comparable.  I now have to use M2SL instead of M2.  So this hides some of the money supply increase.  But this will come back in March.  So consider February a calm before the storm.

Also, the total National Debt just hit $28 trillion.  It hit $27 trillion on 10/1/20, only 5 months ago.  And it will quickly hit $30 trillion as soon as the stimulus bill is passed.  When was the National Debt at $14 trillion?  Sometime in 2010.  So that is about a 10.5 year doubling time and that doesn't sound too bad.  But just wait until the national debt hits $30 trillion.

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