Saturday, May 30, 2020

Denver Riots


This is relatively peaceful compared to some other cities.  Just a large group of hoodlums near the state capital and the police in riot gear are throwing tear gas at them. A SWAT team drives down the street.  Some trash fires.  No looting as far as I can tell.

Update: Another video has a car on fire, spray paint on videos, and a protester with an pick-axe trying to break a window.

Civil War going on right now

The George Floyd protests turned into riots.  But it now has turned into civil war by terrorists. There is disagreement as to who these terrorists are, with Trump blaming Antifa and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz blaming white supremacists, but there is no doubt that the situation has gotten out of control.

First read: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/america-descends-chaos-nationwide-unrest-erupts
"This is absolutely no longer about George Floyd or addressing inequities anymore. This is an organized attack designed to destabilize civil society."
--Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

I am not on top of all the news but these are the fronts on this war:

Minneapolis:  A police station was burned to the ground, and firefighters were unable to put out fires because they were being shot at.  The National Guard with 500 troops was called out, and another 1000 are going in.

Atlanta: Protests turned violent with a police car burned, and the offices of CNN broken into.  A state of emergency was declared allowing up to 500 National Guard troops to be called.

Portland:  Terrorists ("peaceful protesters") broke into the police headquarters, looted it and started a fire inside, but apparently caused only relatively minor damage.

Oakland: Two federal police (with the Federal Protective Service, part of DHS, that protects federal buildings) were shot and one of them died.  Also, looting and fires.

Brooklyn: A mob set a police van on fire and tried to storm two police stations, but the police fought back, and are being criticized for excessive use of force.

There are violent protests in lots of other cities - but these are the only ones I have heard so far where there is actual civil war or terrorism going on.

Friday, May 29, 2020

How money is created

Money is created in one of two ways: by the government making payments (Uncle Sam writes you a check, the bank then credits that to your account) or the bank extending a loan, in which case the bank credits money to your account against a contract saying you’re going to pay it back. The government extinguishes money by taking in taxes; the bank extinguishes it by taking in loan repayments.
Source: http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2020/05/well-need-mass-debt-forgiveness-to.html

This is exactly right.  But distinguish "money" from "wealth".  I define "wealth" as the actual value that money can buy.  Just printing more dollars doesn't create wealth.  Money is just a potential claim on assets.  And if society as a whole produces less (say by killing hogs that can't be processed) and is paid more (by collecting unemployment for doing nothing), then the value of money declines and you have inflation.

I was going to say that certain stocks function as money, but that can't be right, because you can't buy your groceries with a stock.  What about Bitcoin?

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Warren Buffett has lost his Midas touch

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $137 billion of cash.  However, it lost $50 billion during the 1st quarter of 2020, and will probably lose even more during the 2nd quarter.  Warren Buffett couldn't find anything worthwhile to invest in even during the stock market crash.  Bill Ackman just sold a $1 billion investment in Berkshire Hathaway because he lost faith in Buffett.  Meanwhile, BRK.A stock is dropping like a rock - well, not that much, but it dropped 0.5% today.

Maybe it is time for Warren Buffett to retire?  He is 89 years old after all and has lived a very successful life.

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Sentiment

Sentiment is the proportion of traders who are long v short. You are looking for proportions of greater than 60% long or less than 40% long.  The theory is that you would take a contrarian approach.  So which currency pairs involving the USD exhibit these characteristics?  Look at https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment-report

First, look at the AUD/USD, which is about 37% long with 63% short.  This trades at about 0.66.  Most traders expect it to drop further, so the contrarian approach would be to BUY it (remember buy the dip), expecting it to go higher.

So if it drops below 0.659, that is a BUY signal.

Next, look at the GBP/USD, which is about 63% long with 37% short.  This trades at about 1.225.  Most traders expect it to rise, so the contratrian approach would be to SELL it (on a spike), expecting it to drop.

So if it goes above 1.226, that is a SELL signal.

This is a very simple theory that may or may not work.  Something to think about.

==============
Update: It is important to get sentiment from more than one source.  Here are some more:
https://www.forexfactory.com/trades
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook/AUDUSD
https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/open-position-ratios
https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools/fx-open-positions/tool-details

============================================
Update 2:
DO NOT DO THIS.  It doesn't work.  The sentiment only shows investors on that particular site, and it completely ignores the enormous banks.  The saxo site includes some of the big banks.

Taking a step back, the basic problem with Forex is that it is a zero-sum game.  For you to win, someone else has to lose.  Do you really think you are smarter than at least 50% of the players?

Watch Plandemic


Source: https://www.bitchute.com/video/TsbMDWB6R98v/

Google is banning it, even removing personal copies on personal drives.  Of course it's been deleted from Facebook and Youtube.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/google-drive-takes-down-personal-copy-plandemic

They may ban this blog because of this post, I don't care.  Watch it. More importantly, save a copy to your own hard drive.

Here is the Wikipedia article about the movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plandemic .  At least they acknowledge that there is such a thing.  And here is the article about Judy Mikovits.

The big question:  are they banning it because it is misleading (which isn't a reason to ban it, instead make your counter-video), or because it is telling the truth?  Either way, Google, Facebook and Youtube are acting like tyrants.

By the way, this is the closest thing I could find to the counter-argument against Plandemic and Judy Mikovits:   https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/plandemic-judy-mikovits-covid-19/   Read it and decide for yourself.  Here is the wikipedia article about David Gorski and here is his blog: https://respectfulinsolence.com/

While I am at it, here is the link to Natural News, which is also banned.  https://www.naturalnews.com/

Monday, May 25, 2020

Section 623 Letter

Read: https://www.preventloanscams.org/623-dispute-letter/

A Section 623 letter is supposed to be your "third bite of the apple" with the credit bureau.  First, lets look at the code.  This is available at 15 USC § 1681s–2 aka FCRA section 623.
(1)Prohibition (A)Reporting information with actual knowledge of errors. A person shall not furnish any information relating to a consumer to any consumer reporting agency if the person knows or has reasonable cause to believe that the information is inaccurate. (B)Reporting information after notice and confirmation of errors. A person shall not furnish information relating to a consumer to any consumer reporting agency if— (i)the person has been notified by the consumer, at the address specified by the person for such notices, that specific information is inaccurate; and (ii)the information is, in fact, inaccurate.
There is more, but I don't see how there is any duty on the part of the credit reporting agency.  Instead it talks about the furnisher of information.

That website states:  "Assuming you’ve completed the credit bureau dispute process, the next step is to submit a verification letter to the credit bureau in question."  I think this is wrong.  The second credit bureau in that sentence should read "furnisher of information" or "collection agency".

My tentative conclusion is that a 623 letter is sent to the collection agency, not the credit bureau and is the same thing I previously called a Notice of Dispute.  So I think you get only 2 bites of the apple with the credit bureau, but 3 bites with the collection agency.

Method of Verification Letter

A Method of Verification letter is sent if the credit bureau verified the debt.  (I previously referred to this as an "enhanced 611 letter" because it mentioned section 611).  A sample letter is available here:
https://www.preventloanscams.org/method-of-verification-letter/  Here is the text in part:

Dear Sir/Ma’am: 
I recently received a response to a dispute (see attached) that I made under FCRA 611 (a) regarding an erroneous item on my credit report involving a transaction with. I was saddened to learn that you somehow verified the disputed item, electing to leave it on my report. I am absolutely certain that the item I disputed is incorrect and should be removed, so I am hereby exercising my rights under FCRA 611 (a) (7) to request a complete description of all methods used to investigate my aforementioned dispute. 
I am very interested to learn how your investigator(s) arrived at this erroneous conclusion. I would like to see a complete list of all documents and correspondence with. Please include all names and contact information of employees that you spoke to at as part of this investigation. All previous letters and documents that I sent to you previously are once again attached along with this correspondence in order to help you process this request. I am asking for this verification because my credit score is important to me, and I believe it is being unjustly degraded as a result of this unfortunate error. I would therefore request that you please do not send me a template letter in response to this request. I am in the process of planning a legal case, so I need specific answers to the specific questions asked of you in this letter. I expect to receive a response within 15 days of receipt of this letter, or I will expect to see the item in question permanently expunged from my record. Thank you for your prompt attention to this matter. I very much look forward to getting this resolved as soon as possible.

Debt Validation v Debt Verification

This is a followup to my article on Debt Validation.  At least one writer thinks there is a difference between Debt Validation and Debt Verification.  See https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/debt-validation-letter .  The Debt Validation letter is what the creditor sends you, and if they didn't send you one, you can request it.  I call the request for validation an "809 letter".

Now what if they collection agency responds, but doesn't provide very much information.  Like if they say: "we researched this and it is a valid debt", and that's it.  Then you send a debt verification letter, based on a sample here:  https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-should-i-do-when-a-debt-collector-contacts-me-en-1695/   Don't use these sample letters word for word; instead rewrite them.  And ask for the original contract with your signature on it.

I still don't really see the difference, so I will call this a "809 letter" and an "enhanced 809 letter".  If the collection agency doesn't respond to the 809 letter after 30 days, then send the "enhanced 809" letter via certified mail, return receipt requested.  This costs about $7, so I would wait to send this to see if they respond to the first letter.

Can you dispute to the credit bureau again, based on the "enhanced 809 letter"?  I don't know, maybe.

Anyways these two letters are different from the Notice of Dispute letter previously mentioned, so there are three levels of escalation when dealing with the collection agency:  1) Debt Validation/809 letter; 2) Debt Verification/Enhanced 809 letter; and 3) Notice of Dispute/623 letter.


Disputing with the Credit Bureau

This is one of a series of articles I will be writing on credit repair.  For the previous one, see Debt Validation.  I am not an expert in this field and am learning as I go.

As stated in the post on Debt Validation, I think your first step should be to contact the collection agency.  If they don't respond, then the fact that they didn't respond is a reason to challenge the debt.

There are different types of dispute letters you can send to the credit reporting agency.  I am not clear if you can send multiple letters.  It seems to me that if they respond and verify the debt that that settles it.  But maybe you can still keep disputing it.

The basic dispute letter is described here: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/how-do-i-dispute-an-error-on-my-credit-report-en-314/ .  I will call it a "611 letter" as described further below. You can do this online, but I have heard that it is better to mail it in.  Provide as much detail as possible about the dispute.  For the record, these are the addresses:

Equifax Information Services LLC, P.O. Box 740256, Atlanta, GA 30348-0256
Experian P.O. Box 4500, Allen, TX 75013-1311
TransUnion LLC Consumer Dispute Center P.O. Box 2000, Chester, PA 19016-2000

The legal basis for this dispute is 15 U.S.C. § 1681I aka FCRA § 611, which states:
(A)In general.  Subject to subsection (f) and except as provided in subsection (g), if the completeness or accuracy of any item of information contained in a consumer’s file at a consumer reporting agency is disputed by the consumer and the consumer notifies the agency directly, or indirectly through a reseller, of such dispute, the agency shall, free of charge, conduct a reasonable reinvestigation to determine whether the disputed information is inaccurate and record the current status of the disputed information, or delete the item from the file in accordance with paragraph (5), before the end of the 30-day period beginning on the date on which the agency receives the notice of the dispute from the consumer or reseller. 

The credit reporting agencies may reject the dispute, calling it frivolous, or saying that they need more information.  If they need more information, just resubmit it in more detail.  If they say it is frivolous, then I think it can still be resubmitted, but it needs to be totally rewritten and worded in a different way - don't just resubmit the same letter.

============================================

There is also something called a "609 letter".  This is really a misnomer because section 609 doesn't give you any rights to dispute - section 611 does that.  Section 609 says in part: Every consumer reporting agency shall, upon request, and subject to section 1681h(a)(1) of this title, clearly and accurately disclose to the consumer: (1) All information in the consumer’s file at the time of the request,

But if you just focus on the words "clearly and accurately" then maybe this does give you some additional rights.   A sample letter states in part:
Dear Credit Bureau (Experian, TransUnion or Equifax), I am exercising my right under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, Section 609, to request information regarding an item that is listed on my consumer credit report. [List account names and account numbers] As per section 609, I am entitled to see the source of the information, which is the original contract that contains my signature.  I have also included a copy of my credit report with the account I am requesting to have verified circled and highlighted. If you are unable to verify the account with the original contract, the information should be removed from my credit report within 30 days.

One credit repair company bases its "claim to fame" on section 609. See  https://www.609creditrepair.com/
The Easy 609 Credit Repair Secret: The Federal Law Loophole That Removes All Negative Accounts Every Time! SECTION 609 of the Fair Credit Reporting Act does not care whether the negative account is valid or not. The letters dispute the Credit Reporting Agencies right to REPORT the adverse account - NOT whether or not the adverse account is valid.

I don't believe the 609 letter does any of this.  But it might, I could be mistaken.  I don't think it hurts to send a 609 letter.  But the question is, can you send both a 609 letter and a 611 letter?  If so, which one do you send first?  It seems to me that the statement about "if you are unable to verify the account with the original contract, the information should be removed" invokes section 611.  So I think you can only send one 609 or 611 letter.

=======================================================================
Now, what happens if the disputed debt comes back verified?  Then you can send a Method of Verification request, aka a 623 letter aka a Notice of Dispute.  I think a Notice of Dispute is a followup to the collection agency whereas a Method of Verification is for the credit reporting agency.  Is a Method of Verification letter the same as a 623 letter?  I will write another blog post about this.

(Update:  One article here: https://www.preventloanscams.org/method-of-verification-letter/ , seems to say that a Method of Verification is different from a 623 letter.  So maybe a "Method of Verification letter" could be called an "enhanced 611 letter".  So are there 3 levels of dispute possible?  Again, the subject of another post.)

===================================================================
In closing I will say, if you wonder if you should dispute an item, I will say, yes, dispute it.  Dispute early, dispute often (every 30 days).  It doesn't matter if you think the item may be valid, the credit repair agency has to provide some proof of it.

On more last thing.  Don't use a form letter when writing to the credit bureaus.  Make it unique in your own wording.  This will be read by a computer with some level of artificial intelligence and pattern matching, that will try to categorize it, so don't make it easy on them.

Federal Reserve Balance sheet exceeds $7 trillion

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet hit $7 trillion as of May 18, 2020.  Note that the balance sheet had dropped below $4 billion until 10/30/19, so it has increased $3 trillion since then.

See also: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet exceeds $6 Trillion and Federal Reserve balance sheet exceeds $5 trillion .

They wanna get me like I'm Roger Stone


Saturday, May 23, 2020

Debt Validation

I am interested in the credit repair process and I will be writing some articles about this.  I am not an expert and this is subject to change as I learn more.  There is a lot of confusing misinformation about this process and this is my attempt to add light on the subject.

When there is a negative item on your credit report, the first step should be writing a letter to the collection agency asking them to "validate" or "verify" the debt within 30 days.  There may be a distinction between those two words, but I haven't figured it out yet, so I will use them interchangeably.

The legal basis for a debt validation request is based on 15 USC 1692g § 809. Validation of debts.  Note that this section refers to the notification by the consumer after the debt collector contacts him.  This section requires that the debt collector include a "statement that unless the consumer, within thirty days after receipt of the notice, disputes the validity of the debt, or any portion thereof, the debt will be assumed to be valid by the debt collector" § 809(a)(3) .

A sample letter to send is available at:  https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-should-i-do-when-a-debt-collector-contacts-me-en-1695/

Now what happens if the collection agency doesn't respond?  Apparently they are not required to, if the consumer waits more than 30 days after first contact by the collection agency.  The collection agency is taking the position that since the consumer didn't request the section 809 debt validation within 30 days of first contact that the collection agency can assume that the debt is valid and they don't have to respond to the consumer.

I think it is stupid for the collection agency not to respond.  Instead, they should treat this as an opening to negotiate with the consumer and they should give an offer to settle the debt.  But the reason why the collection agency doesn't respond is that they are lazy.  They are not legally required to respond so they don't, but they still claim the debt is valid.  It is a passive-aggressive approach.

If the collection agency doesn't respond, then this is a reason to dispute the debt with the credit bureaus, but that is a topic for another post.

Note to self: write post about disputing with credit bureaus.

=============================================
I will jump right into a related topic, which is called "Notice of Dispute".  The relevant legal section is 15 U.S. Code § 1681s–2(a)(8), alternatively known as FCRA §623(a)(8).  In this section, you are asking the "furnisher" (aka the collection agency), to reinvestigate a dispute concerning the accuracy of information contained in a consumer report.

The difference between a Request for Debt Validation mentioned above and a Notice of Dispute is that the debt validation requires the debt collector to provide information or to stop actively communicating with the consumer (and it says nothing about a credit report) whereas the Notice of Dispute is about what is on your credit report (and says nothing about debt collection tactics).

A sample Notice of Dispute is at:  https://www.preventloanscams.org/623-dispute-letter/.

A Notice of Dispute can "technically" be sent only after the credit bureau investigates, but I don't see why as a practical matter it couldn't be sent before that.

I think the effect of this is that you are checking whether the collection agency is "brain-dead" or not.  If they didn't respond to the debt validation request then I don't know why they would respond to this.

If the collection agency does respond to either the Debt Validation or Notice of Dispute, then the only alternative may be to try to settle the debt, with a pay-for-delete letter, which is a topic for another post.

Note to self: write post about pay-for-delete letter.

There is another possible related topic called "Method of Verification" which relates mostly to the credit bureaus, but it may apply to the collection agency as well.

Note to self: write post about method-of-verification.

There is yet another possible topic about a follow up with the collection agency regarding demanding proof of a contract with your signature.  I don't know if I will write about this, but I may.

Note to self: possibly write another post about demanding more proof.

Now, what happens if after all of this, the collection agency tells the credit bureau that the information is accurate, but it won't respond to you?  Well, you have a reason to complain to the CFPB or to sue them.  But before doing that, it may be worth it to write more letters or even (gasp) call them (which is usually not a good idea).  If you do sue them, you run the risk that they will countersue for the debt.  But that is the topic of yet another post.

Note to self: write post about if all options fail and you have to complain to the CFPB or sue them.

====================================
The Colorado version of the request for debt validation is CRS 5-16-109.  Similar to the federal version, it gives the consumer 30 days to ask for debt verification.  The collection agency is then required to either provide verification of the debt of to cease collections of it.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The genius of secured credit cards

For someone who has a credit score below about 630, the system seems rigged against them.  Almost all credit card issuers will deny someone below this range and the few who will accept the applicant will charge exorbitant fees, like a $99 annual fee, and very high interest rates.

The basic problem for such a person is that they are undercapitalized - in plain English, they don't have enough savings.  Step One is to build an emergency fund of at least $1000.  When you have the money, take $500 and put it as a deposit on a secured card.  You don't want to put all of it as a deposit on a secured card because you want to make sure you can pay back what you charge.  So the charges are secured twice, first by the deposit, and second by savings that can be used to pay the charges.

How much capital do you need?  It depends on the person, but I believe at least $4,000.  Get 3 secured credit cards for $1,000 each and keep $1,000 as savings to make sure you can pay the charges.  The reason why you need multiple cards is because at some point you will close the card and get the deposit back, and you will want to keep at least one card open.  How do you raise $4,000?  It isn't easy but its called spending less than you earn.  It may take a year or longer to raise it.

Don't charge more than 30% on any card.  So if your credit limit is $1,000, don't charge more than $300.  It's ok to use more than that temporarily as long as you very quickly (within a couple of weeks) bring it back to 30%.  And of course, pay off the balance monthly so you don't get interest.

So once someone follows this plan, they will have a $3,000 credit limit and be in an excellent position to get an unsecured card at regular rates within a year.

Why don't people with better credit scores need capital?  Their credit score in a sense is their "capital".  A credit score is worth money, it is a replacement for capital that is otherwise needed.

A further twist is that banks hate issuing secured credit cards.  The solution is to go to a local credit union and see if they have the product.  But why do banks hate it?  First, they are dealing with a high-risk individual who may not pay back the credit card even if it has a deposit.  And if they do seize the deposit it will generate bad will on the part of the customer.  And the bank doesn't profit from this, they are just getting back their money. So why take the risk?  A more subtle reason is that banks really don't want your money.  From their standpoint it is a debt, a liability, and they don't want more debts they want more assets.  A credit card balance is an asset to the bank.  A bank would rather deal with a person with a higher credit score who is more profitable.

Why do secured credit cards charge an annual fee?  It is basically a negative interest rate.  An annual fee of $35 on a $300 card is an interest rate of -11.7%.  They need the fee for it to make sense to them because they have costs in issuing the card, sending out bills, maintaining a website, answering the phone, and maintain the money in an escrow account.  Most credit unions issue secured credit cards without an annual fee, which of course is preferable.

So in conclusion, the genius of a secured credit card is that 1) it forces you to save money; 2) it teaches you good spending habits; and 3) it helps rebuild credit; 4) at a low cost.  And at the end of the year or two, however long it takes, you get your deposit back - which you can then invest in the stock market, but that's a different topic.

See also:  The Genius of Layaway

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

HEROES Act text

The Democrats want to spend another $3 trillion on top of everything else.  HEROES stands for Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions.  Here is the text.

One thing I noticed is that there is a section dealing with credit reporting.  Part of it forbids making new types of credit scores:

‘§ 630. Limitations on new credit scoring models during the COVID–19 emergency and major disasters ‘‘ ‘With respect to a person that creates and implements credit scoring models, such person may not, during a covered period (as defined under section 605C), create or implement a new credit scoring model (including a revision to an existing scoring model) if the new credit scoring model would identify a significant percentage of consumers as being less creditworthy when compared to the previous credit scoring models created or implemented by such person.’; 

Why are they so concerned with credit reporting?  It's like they want people to go further into debt.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Social Security Projects through 2095 per the 2020 SS Trustees Report

The Social Security cost projections come https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2020/lr6g8.html using the low-cost assumptions.

The GDP projections come from https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2020/lr6g4.html using the low-cost assumptions.

Note that we have to use the low-cost assumptions because neither the intermediate-cost or high-cost assumptions are sustainable past 2035. ( Read the footnote b: The combined OASI and DI Trust Funds become depleted in 2035 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2031 under the high-cost assumptions, so estimates for later years are not shown.)  Also note that the GDP projections under the low-cost assumptions are much higher than those under the other two, and this is more likely because of inflation.

Compare these numbers to the similar forecast made last year and they are very different - much higher.  For example, last years forecast shows GDP of 34,800 in 2030 and this shows 39,249.  Last year shows GDP of 52,965 in 2040 and this shows 65,841.

I am going to use the GDP numbers here for my next long-range forecast.

Year Soc Sec GDP
2020 1,111 22,716
2021 1,178 24,162
2022 1,247 25,603
2023 1,323 27,045
2024 1,404 28,565
2025 1,491 30,153
2026 1,584 31,804
2027 1,683 33,538
2028 1,788 35,356
2029 1,899 37,255
2030 2,009 39,249
2031 2,123 41,355
2032 2,241 43,569
2033 2,363 45,906
2034 2,488 48,350
2035 2,616 50,909
2036 2,748 53,597
2037 2,887 56,427
2038 3,031 59,396
2039 3,180 62,526
2040 3,335 65,841
2041 3,495 69,350
2042 3,662 73,064
2043 3,837 77,005
2044 4,020 81,186
2045 4,214 85,611
2046 4,419 90,297
2047 4,638 95,262
2048 4,872 100,505
2049 5,120 106,056
2050 5,384 111,916
2051 5,665 118,105
2052 5,965 124,627
2053 6,284 131,506
2054 6,622 138,746
2055 6,982 146,363
2056 7,364 154,383
2057 7,769 162,817
2058 8,200 171,693
2059 8,654 181,029
2060 9,135 190,854
2061 9,641 201,192
2062 10,173 212,058
2063 10,733 223,487
2064 11,322 235,516
2065 11,943 248,184
2066 12,598 261,534
2067 13,290 275,611
2068 14,021 290,463
2069 14,793 306,140
2070 15,609 322,704
2071 16,466 340,186
2072 17,365 358,682
2073 18,310 378,240
2074 19,302 398,937
2075 20,341 420,844
2076 21,425 444,033
2077 22,557 468,567
2078 23,734 494,533
2079 25,252 521,983
2080 26,770 550,991
2081 28,288 581,637
2082 29,806 614,000
2083 31,324 648,179
2084 32,842 684,244
2085 34,360 722,271
2086 35,878 762,347
2087 37,396 804,553
2088 38,913 848,978
2089 40,965 895,727
2090 43,170 944,908
2091 45,541 996,646
2092 48,088 1,051,084
2093 50,818 1,108,358
2094 53,741 1,168,613
2095 56,861 1,232,021

I don't know why these don't go out through 2100 but that is the data I have.

2020 Social Security Report

The 2020 Social Security Report was released on April 22, 2020.  Usually this is released in July so this is early.  There are a few "magic" words I look for in the report - see my analysis of the 2019 report for an example.

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income starting in 2021, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035.  This is the same as last year.

What about the 75-year deficit?  
The open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $16.8 trillion in present value and is $2.9 trillion more than the measured level of $13.9 trillion a year ago.  So really Social Security had a $2.9 trillion deficit last year, although since it is not in cash, nobody cares.

What happens in 2035, when the trust fund runs out?
The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2034, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay 76 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. Last year this was at 77 percent, so not much of a drop.

So what will really happen in 2035?  The SS trustees aren't allowed to speculate but I can. Benefits won't be cut; instead, the SS shortfall of about $500 billion or so will just be added to the general deficit.  Who needs taxes when you can borrow?

The April 2020 deficit was $738 billion

See https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0420.pdf

The fiscal YTD deficit is $1.48 trillion.  What is the total estimated deficit for FY 2020?  The only number I can find is from CRFB which projects a $3.8 trillion deficit and a $2.1 trillion deficit in 2021.

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Why Capital One said no


The video blogger had a credit score of 780 and was denied by Capital One, because he had opened too many other credit cards in the last 24 months.

Is this humiliation worth it?  Just say no to Capital One.

Capital One is evil

Capital One is basically a predatory lender.  They sucker people into getting into debt (and paying outrageous interest rates) who otherwise wouldn't.  They are not the only offender or even the worst offender, but they stand out because of their heavy marketing and psychological experiments on the lab rats, err, customers.

Capital One’s culture of experimentation also acted as a kind of buffer. Fast Company has reported that Capital One runs 80,000 experiments per year. As Christopher Worley and Edward Lawler III explain in the journal Organizational Dynamics, a bank like Capital One can randomly assign differing interest rates, payment options, or rewards to various customers and see which combinations are most profitable for any given segment of people. It’s not so different from how a pharmaceutical company might use a randomized control trial to test whether a new drug is effective, except that the results of the bank’s experiment will never get published, and instead of curing diseases, the bank is trying to extract more money from each customer. The use of experiments is itself an act of psychological distancing; it allows the analysts controlling the experiment to resolutely apply its findings as a profit-maximizing mandate without giving the strategy a name such as, oh, “predatory lending.”
https://newrepublic.com/article/155212/worked-capital-one-five-years-justified-piling-debt-poor-customers

See also: https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/capital-one-doing-business-the-digital-way_0.pdf

https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-department-working-paper/2017/credit-card-utilization-and-consumption-over-the-life-cycle-and-business-cycle.aspx

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Capital One will deny people credit cards for the reason that their credit score is too high.  Why?  Because people with high credit scores are unlikely to max out their cards or even to carry a balance.  They aren't profitable enough for Capital One, who chooses to instead focus on their prime demographic, poor people who are likely to go into debt.

They Live


Wednesday, May 6, 2020

The worst-case scenario occurs if 10-year interest rates exceed 4.5%

Read: The Creator Of The Bond Volatility Index Reveals When The Fed Will Finally Lose Control

Surely at some point there comes a time when not even the Fed can print its way to prosperity. As it turns out, such a point does exist according to Bassman, who says a worst-case scenario, "has to include a situation where the FED can no longer hold back the tides; and I will volunteer this occurs if interest rates significantly increase, perhaps above 4.5%" as a result of the massive debt load carried by the system. As Bassman notes, the old rule is that the T10yr rate should tend toward nominal GDP. As such, a real GDP at 2.0% plus an inflation of 2.5% should lead to a T10yr rate of 4.5%.

So, the Fed CAN print its way to prosperity so long as the 10yr does not reach 4.5%.  Currently it is at 0.66%.

What happens if the danger zone is reached?  Can't it just raise interest rates and coordinate with Congress to raise taxes to suck money out of the system?

So print away.  Just give everyone a million dollars and see what happens.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

The Projected FY 2020 deficit is $1.08 trillion as of March 31

Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0320.pdf , page 5.

I took a snapshot of this because I find it quite amusing.  This, through March 2020, is the most current Monthly Treasury Statement posted on the Treasury Department website.

As you can see, the total estimated receipts to date for the fiscal year are $3,706,327 million and the estimated outlays are $4,789,746 million for a estimated deficit of $1,083,419 million.  The updated treasury statement for April will be posted in a few days and it will show an estimated deficit of over $3 trillion.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

$19 Trillion in Debt Held By the Public

On 4/30/2020, the Debt Held By the Public reached 19,053,618,801,919.97.  This was less than a month after it first reached $18 trillion , and less than 6 months after it first reached $17 trillion.  It will probably be above $20 trillion by the end of the fiscal year on 9/30/2020.

Where does all the money come from to buy the debt?  Well, the Fed has "printed" about $2.5 trillion in cash in the last 2 months, so no problem.  They can play this game all day long.

So when does the hyperinflation kick in?