GDP is now $28.3 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $327.5 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $28.28 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

Debt to the Public is today $27.46 trillion, so the ratio is 97.0%.

I just recently started tracking this ratio.  On October 26, it was 96.0%, so this is growing about 2.0% per year.  

We haven't hit 100% yet, but at the current rate we should hit it in about 1.5 years, by about October 2025.

Fake Space News of the Day

 Sorry but I believe that almost all news about Outer Space is fake.

Voyager 1 supposedly launched on September 5, 1977 and is now supposedly outside the solar system and about 15 billion miles from the Sun.  (By way of comparison, Jupiter is 465 million miles from the Sun).  The news is that this 46 year old space probe had a hardware failure.  NASA scientists were supposedly able to remotely diagnose the problem (a defective memory chip in the flight data system) and upload a firmware patch and correct the problem.

See https://hackaday.com/2024/04/22/nasas-voyager-1-resumes-sending-engineering-updates-to-earth/

The firmware patch that got sent over on April 18th contained an initial test to validate the theory, moving the code responsible for the engineering data packaging to a new spot in the FDS memory. If the theory was correct, this should mean that this time the correct data should be sent back from Voyager. Twice a 22.5 hour trip and change through Deep Space and back later on April 20th the team was ecstatic to see what they had hoped for. With this initial test successful, the team can now move on to moving the remaining code away from the faulty memory after which regular science operations should resume, and giving the plucky spacecraft a new lease on life at the still tender age of 46.

IMF warns of Fiscal Slippages

Read:   https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/04/17/fiscal-monitor-april-2024

I have never heard of the term "fiscal slippage" until today.  It seems to be a euphemism for "excess spending".   Maybe if we see it in a sentence it will make more sense.

Furthermore, the risks of fiscal slippages are particularly pronounced this time around. 

Empirical evidence points to a bias toward fiscal slippages in elections years. 

The risks of fiscal slippages are particularly acute given that 2024 is what is being called the “Great Election Year”: 88 economies or economic areas representing more than half of the world’s population and GDP have already held or will hold elections during the year. Support for increased government spending has grown across the political spectrum over the past several decades, making this year especially challenging, as empirical evidence shows that fiscal policy tends to be looser, and slippages larger, during election years.

Election years are often associated with fiscal slippage, and this risk is further amplified by the current context of increased demand for social spending.

In 2023, the United States experienced remarkably large fiscal slippages, with the general government fiscal deficit rising to 8.8 percent of GDP from 4.1 percent of GDP in 2022, despite strong growth. 

Empirical evidence shows that fiscal policy tends to be looser, and slippages larger, during election years, reflecting a “political budget cycle.”

The analysis further shows that realized deficits are higher than their year-ahead projections by 0.4 percentage point of GDP , indicating a considerable risk of slippages to the modest fiscal tightening projected for most economies in 2024. Such fiscal slippages could potentially add to inflationary pressures, especially in overheated economies. 

Although gradual fiscal tightening is projected to resume in 2024, the risks of fiscal slippages are particularly acute during this “Great Election Year” when numerous elections will be held in countries across the world.

Fiscal slippage. A situation where a government’s actual fiscal performance deviates from its planned or targeted fiscal targets, usually resulting in higher-than-expected budget deficits, increased public debt, or a combination of both.

I think the IMF needs to learn about the Magical Money Tree, and stop worrying.  Fiscal slippages are not a problem because money appears like magic to pay for them!

Never Gonna Let You Go

 

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbNugxHdggs

Pollard's Lessee v. Hagan

 Read: https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/44/212/

Pollard's Lessee v. Hagan is an 1845 US Supreme Court case.

For some reason, I am suddenly fascinated with the ownership of land in Mobile Alabama that was below the usual high water mark.  This case is interesting because it is very confusing from a factual perspective and also the issue isn't clear.  And it seems that it overturned two previous cases that were very similar.  The dissent may have gotten this right.  I don't have time to brief this but it would be interesting to do so.

Here is a link to a YouTube video about the case that is also not very enlightening, and talks more about the Equal Footing doctrine (which I don't care about):

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QpqDa24OXo

I want to know why the Plaintiff, who had a land patent from the US government, lost.

So mark this up for somebody to research when they have time.

Fascinating Mississippi Supreme Court case

 Read: https://law.justia.com/cases/mississippi/supreme-court/2024/2022-sa-01088-sct.html

Issue: Whether a 1784 land grant from Spanish King Charles III was valid.

Holding: Yes.

Reasoning:  The case of Cinque Bambini P’ship v. State, 491 So. 2d 508, 511(Miss.  1986) does not apply because it dealt with a Spanish land grant of 1813, which was after West Florida, south of the 31st parallel, became part of Mississippi Territory in 1812.

The cases of: Pollard v. Hagan,  44  U.S.  212,  11  L.  Ed.  565  (1845),  and Henderson v. Poindexter’s Lessee, 25 U.S. 530, 6 L. Ed. 718 (1827), also do not apply because they dealt with land north of the 31st parallel, which became part of the US in the 1783 Treaty of Paris.  Spain initially disputed the boundaries, but it agreed that the 31st parallel was the dividing line in the 1795 Treaty of San Lorenzo.

However, the ownership of the land below the 31st parallel is more contentious.  The history is detailed in the cases US v. States of La., Tex., Miss., Ala. &Fla., 363 U.S. 1, 80 (1960) and US v. Louisiana, 382 U.S. 288, (1965), and they refer to the cases of Foster v. Neilson, 27 U.S. 253, (1829), overruled by United States v. Percheman, 32 U.S. 51,  (1833).

The ownership of the land in question was passed to Spain from Great Britain by a treaty dated Sept 3, 1783.  By the Treaty of San Ildefonso in 1800, France acquired it, and finally in the 1803 Treaty of Paris, the US acquired the land from France.  Since Spain owned the land in 1784, the land grant is clearly valid.

Hat tip: https://reason.com/volokh/2024/04/11/private-landowner-in-mississippi-beats-state-based-on-interpretation-of-1784-spanish-land-grant/

See also:  https://history.state.gov/milestones/1784-1800/pickney-treaty

Gold just hit $2400

 

The price of gold today (4/12/24) is at $2410.  It first hit $2300 on April 4, only 8 days ago.  It hit $2200 on March 27, I think, and $2100 on March 4.   The $2000 mark was much earlier, on Oct 27, 2023.

I don't think it will continue to go up at this rapid pace, but it will continue to go up, and we will celebrate each $100 increase.

Treasury Yields up 2.7% per month since December

 

Ok, this is a little misleading.  The value of a Treasury goes down when yields go up, so to be clear this is not measuring the value of a Treasury (which is a bad investment at the moment).  Also, this is the relative change, not the absolute change.  If a yield is 4% and it goes up by 2.5%, it become 4.1%, not 6.5%.   I am just making the point that I see a trend that is in line with other commodity prices.

So on 12/13/23, the yield on a 10-year treasury was 3.96%.  I will convert it to a number, 396.  On 4/11/24, the yield is 4.54%, or 454.  So it has gone up 14.6% in 5 months, or about 2.77% per month.   Will this continue?  Probably not, but it is a trend I am seeing at the moment.

DJIA up 2.5% per month since October

 

Starting on 10/20/24 it was at 33127.  Today, 4/10/24, it is at 38492.   That is an increase of 16.2% in under 6 months.   This is in line with other data, and it means the dollar is rapidly losing value.

Federal Reserve Annual Report

 The last time I reported on the Federal Reserve was in a blog post called What is the value of a dollar . As of 9/30/23, the Federal Reserve had assets measured at FMV of $6.787 trillion (including deferred asset of $106 billion) as opposed to liabilities and equity of $8.195 trillion, for a loss of $1.408 trillion.

They have now produced their annual report for the year ending 12/31/2023, and their SOMA assets show a FMV of $6.524 trillion and face value of $7.472 trillion for an unrealized loss of $948 billion.  Their deferred asset account has $133 billion.  So total unrealized losses are $1.081 trillion.  The total balance sheet as of 12/31/23 was $7.836 trillion.

So on a fair value basis, they earned $327 billion for the quarter, which is better than a loss.  But the deferred asset account increased by $27 billion.  This is really a disguised loss.  So the Federal Reserve is still losing money, benefitting the big banks and to the detriment of taxpayers.

Deficit of $236 Billion in March 2024

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-04/60115-MBR.pdf

The FYTD deficit is $1,064 billion and it less than it was one year ago, when the FTYD deficit was $1,101 billion. Net interest expense for March was $80 billion, and in March 2023 it was $68 billion, so this is up 18%.

On 3/29/2024 the total national debt was $34.586 trillion, and one year earlier on 3/31/23 it was $31.458 trillion, so this increased 9.9% in one year.

Silver is up 2.5% per month since October

 

On 9/26/23, silver was at 23.20.  That is the data I am starting from, and ignoring the valley on 10/5/23 when it dropped to 21.02, and ignoring the peak on 12/1/23 when it hit 25.86.  Today, April 4, it is at 26.95.  So it is up 16% since Oct 1, about 2.5% per month.  That is the trend at the moment.

Bitcoin is up 15% per month since September

 I don't think Bitcoin is a good investment but I am just pointing out that since September 1 it has been rising an average of 15% per month.   It will probably start dropping at some point but that is where the trend is today.

Oil prices are going up 3% per month

 

I am starting on 12/1/23 when they were 74.07.  I have 5 data points where they don't hit exactly but they are close.  Today (April 4), oil is at 86.96, which is 17% higher.  The trend may not continue, but as of now and since December 1, the price is consistently rising.

Doomslang

 Read: https://www.esquire.com/lifestyle/a60295595/doomslang-trend/

Doomslang also takes different forms depending on your politics. Yee-Lum Mak, a rhetoric scholar and the author of Other-Wordly, pointed out that she mostly hears doomslang among highly educated folks under 35 from “reasonably comfortable backgrounds.” She noted the left-leaning tint to much of this language—e.g., “You know how it is in our neoliberal dystopia” or “How are you holding up under late-stage capitalism?” Mak said that some speakers might see it as “politically irresponsible” not to acknowledge the state of the world, even casually. Doomslang could serve as “a small act of resistance to groups they oppose, like climate change deniers or politicians averse to climate legislation.”

But not every doomslanger is in Mak’s algorithm. Compare progressive speakers’ jokes about the brain-eating zombie virus that is Fox News to the alt-right’s “wojak” and “doomer” memes. Originating on 4chan, wojak is a simple outlined sketch of a man, symbolizing melancholy and loneliness. Its cousin, doomer, depicts the same character beanie-clad and smoking a cigarette. According to The Atlantic reporter Kaitlyn Tiffany, the doomer meme represents young men who “are no longer pursuing friendships or relationships, and get no joy from anything because they know that the world is coming to an end.”

Gold is going up at the rate of 2.5% per month

This is just a rough estimate, but there are 4 data points: 9/6/23 at $1917, 10/27/23 at $2006, 11/29/23 at $2047, and now 4/3/24 at $2296.  If this keeps going up, by 12/31/2024 it will be at about $2800.  That is 30% plus per year growth.  

Maybe I am cherry picking my data, but you could go back another year until late 2022 when it was below $1700 and find another point of intersection.  So the price has broken through this on the upside.  Let's see what the next valley is and recalculate. 

The National Debt will be $141 trillion by 2054

Professor Joao Gomes
Source: https://executiveeducation.wharton.upenn.edu/faculty/joao-gomes/

See: America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 (msn.com)

The "blockbuster report" is by the CBO and is here:  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60127

Who said there will be "severe, irreversible scars" (in quotes)?   That is Wharton Professor Joao Gomes.

Without a course correction a fiscal crisis is likely to occur in 2030, said Gomes, or as early as 2025 if the next administration rolls out an "expensive fiscal package that relies on implausibly rosy economic assumptions." Regardless, warns Gomes: "It's consequences will be severe and leave lasting—probably irreversible—scars on our economy and society."

See also: What is the current national debt, how can the U.S. get out of debt? | Fortune

Finding the Money

Finding the Money is a documentary about the Magical Money Tree, that will be in theatres everywhere on May 3. where literally hundreds of people will pay to see it.  In it, economist Stephanie Kelton explains why the National Debt is a good thing - it should be called the National Savings Account instead.  The higher the debt, the more money "we" have.  There should be no debt limit, and healthcare should be free for everyone.  Oh also everyone is guaranteed a job. (This sounds like socialism).  We shouldn't worry about the deficit, instead we should be finding ways to increase it!

Julian Assange and Vault 7

Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chris-hedges-crucifixion-julian-assange

 Julian Assange is in the news again.  I don't understand either side's position.  Julian Assange is an Australian citizen who was living in London, running WikiLeaks.  He has gone to extreme measures to fight extradition, which has been pending since November 2010, first to Sweden for alleged rape charges, and then since December 2017, to the United States.  He hid out in the Ecuadorian embassy from 2012 to 2019.   He was arrested on 11 April 2019, and has been in Belmarsh Prison ever since.  I don't understand why he doesn't just consent to extradition, and fight the charges in US courts, and then he could appeal his conviction there, if necessary.  If he wants to be a martyr for free speech then he would be much more sympathetic if he were actually persecuted and suffering in a prison in the US.

On the other hand, the attorneys for the US won't provide assurance that he won't face the death penalty.  Really, why so extreme?  Maybe it is because he leaked some hacking tools used by the CIA.

The 26 September [2021] Yahoo report alleges the following amongst other matters. The disclosure by WikiLeaks of exceptionally sensitive intelligence, relating to CIA hacking tools and known as “Vault 7”, caused the CIA director, Mike Pompeo, and other senior officials inside the CIA, to become “completely detached from reality because they were so embarrassed… They were seeing blood.” In 2017, Mr Pompeo publicly described WikiLeaks as a “non-state hostile intelligence service.” The designation as a non-state hostile intelligence service enabled the CIA to take far more aggressive actions. Some senior officials inside the CIA and the Trump administration discussed killing the applicant, requesting options on how to assassinate him. Discussions over kidnapping or killing the applicant occurred “at the highest levels”.

https://www.tareqhaddad.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/24.03.26-Assange-v-USA-Approved-Judgment.pdf , page 23.

What is Vault 7?  It is information about the CIA's covert hacking program.  WikiLeaks didn't spread the actual programs (malware, viruses, trojans, etc) or their source code, just information about their existence.  https://wikileaks.org/ciav7p1/

Does leaking information about CIA's hacking tools justify the death penalty?

I don't have a conclusion.

Notes on the Crisis

 See: https://www.crisesnotes.com/

This is a very interesting website.  The author is Nathan Tankus, an independent financial thinker, who not only doesn't have a PhD (someone should give him an honorary one), he apparently doesn't even have a bachelor's degree.  In the Crises Notes website, he does FOIA requests on old Federal Reserve memos and writes about them.

Read  https://www.crisesnotes.com/revealed-the-seven-secret-federal-reserve-books-i-won-through-foia/

I ran across this while searching for anything written by Zoltan Pozsar, a mysterious guy with a very cool name who has written research papers on the shadow banking system, but none of them are publicly available.  

The coming Real Estate Crisis

 Read: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/uncategorized/the-collapse-of-cre-debt-is-accelerating/

March 2007: Ben Bernanke said the real estate problem was moderate.

June 2023:  Jerome Powell said the commercial real estate was under pressure but appears unlikely to threaten the broader financial system.

Read: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/2018/11/02/the-next-housing-bust/  (Note: this was written in 2018)

Real home prices peaked in 1989, the recession hit in 1990, home prices fell 7% from the peak until the end of 1990, the recession ended in the spring of 1991 but real U.S. home prices continued to fade for years until they bottomed out in 1997, down 14% from the 1989 peak eight years earlier.  In dollar numbers, real estate did not reach their previous 1989 highs until 2000 to 2002 in five selected cities (Boston, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco).

Using the inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home prices peaked in Jan. 2006, the recession hit in Dec. 2007, home prices continued to fall for years until they bottomed out in about Jan 2012, having dropped about 30 to 45%.  Prices did not reach their previous highs until about 2017.

And now it looks like the 17-year cycle is repeating itself almost exactly.  House prices peaked about May 2022, dropped about 5% to 6% (depending on the city - in San Francisco they dropped 13%), and then recovered their previous highs as of October 2023 forming a double-top and are now declining again.  If history repeats, and it looks like it will, the recession should hit about January 2025, and then prices should continue to fall (adjusted for inflation) until about 2030.

I hope this doesn't happen, but I am just calling it like I see it.  There is definitely a 17-year pattern, and we see this in real estate, among other things.

2025 Budget

 See: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 (whitehouse.gov)

I have just glanced at it, but I think it is totally unrealistic.  For example, the deficit in 2024 is given in the budget as $1.86 trillion, but I think it will be about $2.1 trillion.  The budget claims that the deficit will be reduced in 2025 to 1,781; in 2026 to 1,547; and in 2027 to 1,510.  After that it rises, but it is still below the 2024 number all the way through 2034 (which projects a deficit of 1,677, including interest).  The main reason for this is that taxes will go up drastically. 

The word "tax" is mentioned in the document 292 times (including mentions of tax credits and taxpayer).  The new taxes include: a minimum tax on billionaires, a 15% minimum tax on corporations with profits of more than $1 billion, a separate 21% minimum tax on corporations (I'm not sure what the difference is), increase of Medicare tax on incomes over $400,000, increasing fuel tax on high-end business jets, a surcharge on corporate stock buybacks, a separate 25% minimum tax on those with wealth more than $100 million (this may be the same as the billionaires tax), an increase in the top rate of corporations to 28%, raising the rates on foreign earnings to 21%, increasing the top rate on individuals who make more than $400,000 to 39.6%, an increase in capital gains tax for those earning more than $1 million, non-renewal of tax cuts set to expire in 2025, a Net Investment Income Tax that would go into the Medicare Hospital trust fund, expand limitation on deductibility of excessive employee renumeration, adopt the undertaxed profits rule etc.  

It projects the 2034 Debt Held By the Public to be only $45 trillion.  I think it will be about $70 trillion in 2034, but what do I know.  Let's see what the CBO thinks.

So the Whitehouse thinks that revenue as a percent of GDP will be 18.7% in 2025, and then rising every year to 20.3% in 2034.  The CBO thinks that revenue will be 17.1% in 2025 and 17.9% in 2034.  These are huge differences, for example just in 2025 the CBO thinks revenue will be about $5.0 trillion whereas the Whitehouse thinks that revenue will be almost $5.5 trillion.

See also: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-whats-bidens-reckless-73-trillion-budget-and-heres-how-hell-pay-it

The BOI is not dead

 Ok, the headline is a very bad attempt at a pun.  BOI stands for Beneficial Ownership Information.  In a law passed in 2021, every business in the United States, including limited liability companies (LLCs), must file a report with FinCen as to who the true owners are by the end of 2024 (although some business are exempt, such as banks).  The reports are not very hard to file and there is no filing fee, but they do require an email address to register with FinCen.  The purpose of the BOI filing is anti-money laundering.

The National Small Business Association, an organization that represents 85,000 small businesses, sued the Department of Treasury in federal district court in Alabama arguing that the law requiring such reports was unconstitutional.  And they won!  Hurrah, no one needs to file reports with FinCen!  See the court order at: https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/alabama/alndce/5:2022cv01448/183445/51/

The Alabama court said that it was unconstitutional because it "exceeds the Constitution's limits on the legislative branch and lacks a sufficient nexus to any numerated power to be a necessary or proper means of achieving Congress' policy goals".  And the decision applies only to the plaintiffs, the 85,000 small businesses represented by the NSBA, not the millions of other businesses

Ah, not so fast, the BOI is not dead.  Of course, the defendants appealed.  They are the government, with unlimited amounts of money to fight, and they are represented by the Department of Justice attorneys.  So, expect this decision to be overturned, and it may go to the Supreme Court.

Pentagon Review Finds No Evidence of Alien Cover-Up

 Read: Pentagon Review Finds No Evidence of Alien Cover-Up - Slashdot

US once considered program to reverse-engineer alien spacecraft, Pentagon report reveals - POLITICO

AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 (defense.gov)

Detailed Analysis of the Government's Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena - The Debrief

But what about Project Kona Blue?  This wasn't covered-up, it just wasn't disclosed.  Got it?  

KONA BLUE: A Proposed UAP Recovery and Reverse-Engineering Program
KONA BLUE was brought to AARO’s attention by interviewees who claimed
that it was a sensitive DHS compartment to cover up the retrieval and 
exploitation of “non-human biologics.” KONA BLUE traces its origins
to the DIA-managed AAWSAP/AATIP program, which was funded through a 
special appropriation and executed by its primary contractor, a private
sector organization. DIA cancelled the program in 2012 due to lack of
merit and the utility of the deliverables. As discussed in Section IV 
of this report, while the official purpose of AAWSAP/AATIP was to conduct
research into 12 areas of cutting edge science, the contractor team, and
at least one supportive government program manager, also conducted UAP 
and paranormal research at a property owned by the private sector 
organization. When DIA cancelled this program, its supporters proposed 
to DHS thatthey create and fund a new version of AAWSAP/AATIP under a 
SAP. This proposal, codenamed KONA BLUE, would restart UAP 
investigations, paranormal research (including alleged “human 
consciousness anomalies”) and reverse-engineer any recovered
off-world spacecraft that they hoped to acquire. This proposal 
gained some initial traction at DHS to the point where a Prospective 
Special Access Program (PSAP) was officially requested to stand up this 
program, but it was eventually rejected by DHS leadership for lacking 
merit. As demonstrated by the proposal package and by statements from 
the originator, Senators Lieberman and Reid asked that the PSAP be 
established with the promise of additional funding. The proposed KONA 
BLUE lines of effort closely mirrored those conducted by the private 
sector organization for AAWSAP/AATIP.
KONA BLUE’s advocates were convinced that the USG was hiding UAP 
technologies. They believed that creating this program under DHS would 
allow all of the technology and knowledge of these alleged programs to 
be moved under the KONA BLUE program. The program would provide a 
security and governing structure where it could be monitored properly
by congressional oversight committees. This belief was foundational 
for the KONA BLUE proposal, based on the proposal documents and 
several interviewees who have provided the same information to AARO 
and Congress.
 The Oral History Initiative section of the KONA BLUE proposal was 
to collect data: “…from an already identified and calibrated list of 
retired, previously highly placed government, armed services, 
contractor and intelligence community individuals. The oral history
project will include gathering all information pertaining to the 
location of advanced aerospace technology and biological samples, 
including records, files, reports, photographs, as well as physical 
samples.” It is critical to note that no extraterrestrial craft or 
bodies were ever collected—this material was only assumed to exist 
by KONA BLUE advocates and its anticipated contract performers. This 
was the same assumption made by those same individuals involved with 
the AAWSAP/AATIP program. The SAP was never approved or stood up, and 
no data or material was transferred to DHS.
• KONA BLUE was not reported to Congress at that time because it was 
never established as a SAP and, therefore, did not meet the threshold
for congressional reporting. However, the Deputy Secretary of Defense 
provided a Congressional Notification concerning the program when it 
was identified in the spirit of transparency.

Deficit of $298 billion in February

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-03/59973-MBR.pdf 

The fiscal year to date 2024 deficit is $830 billion for 5 months.  Interest for February was $69 billion. Defense spending for the month was $62 billion. We are still on track for a $2.1 trillion deficit for FY 2024.

The national debt as of 2/29/24 was $34.47 trillion. On 2/28/23 the national debt was $31.46 trillion. So it grew by 9.6%, and this is higher than the 8% long-term growth I see, but I think this will slow down slightly for the April to June quarter at least.

===========

Interest in February 2023 was $42 billion, so this was an increase of 64% over the same month in the previous year.

Revision: The National Debt will be $100 Trillion by 2038

 I just made a post saying that the national debt will be $100 trillion by 2035.   This uses a 10% annual growth in the total national debt.  I think this is too pessimistic, and I think 8% growth is more likely and we have until 2038 until we hit $100 trillion.  So here are the revised numbers.  The GDP growth is close to 5.5% annually but not exactly.

There is a gap of about 2.5% annually (8% growth in debt vs 5.5% growth in GDP) and this is about $700 billion for 2024.  I think the Fed will have to buy this much debt annually.  Maybe they should stop QT by July 1 and that way they aren't sucking money out of the system when it is needed to buy new government debt.  And then freeze their balance sheet for a couple of years until they need to start expanding it again.  There is no point in just shrinking the balance sheet until something breaks, unless that is part of their nefarious plan.

The pig butchering scam

 Have you ever received a text message from a stranger that seems to be a mistake?  If you reply, then you become a "pig" who is about to get butchered.  The person you are interacting with has a very detailed set of scripts that tells them how to respond to lure you in to their scheme.

Each criminal establishment compound has various scripts available to their staff while running the pig butchering scam. These scripts serve as very detailed guides that tell the staff how to respond to different situations and questions from their targets. These scripts are written by experts, doctors, and professors in psychology, as they are crucial to their success. Compared with traditional scams, pig butchering scams have evolved a lot, combining social engineering, internet technology, psychology, sociology, etc., into a complex new discipline. 

https://www.amlrightsource.com/news/pig-butchering-scams-are-spreading

The national debt will be $100 trillion by 2035

 This is a similar but slightly different calculation to the previous post.  I noticed that the national debt has been increasing at slightly more than a 10% rate from the year previous.  And elsewhere I saw a prediction from Social Security that GDP would increase at an average 5.5% pace.  Combine these and see what the national debt is a percent of GDP, and this is what you get.

The debt is rising $1 trillion every 100 days

 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

June 15, 2023: $32 trillion

Sept 15, 2023 (92 days later): $33 trillion

Jan 4, 2024 (111 days later): $34 trillion

This time will take longer because April should have a surplus because of taxes. But this could look like:

May 15, 2024 (132 days later): $35 trillion

Aug 31, 2024 (108 days later): $36 trillion

Dec 15, 2024 (106 days later): $37 trillion

March 15, 2025 (106 days later): $38 trillion

July 31, 2025 (138 days later): $39 trillion

Nov 15, 2025 (107 days later): $40 trillion

March 1, 2026 (106 days later): $41 trillion

 =================================

Since I am a doom-and-gloom guy, is this a problem?  The answer is no.  

1) The national debt and deficit goes up but the GDP (of which government spending is a portion) goes up as well, so the ratio of the debt to GDP remains about the same.  

2) The Fed has almost total control over the interest rates, so those aren't a problem. They should be about 4% going forward on a long-term basis. 

3)  As for where the money comes from to borrow, current bondholders and banks get interest (which is newly created money), so the money supply grows about the same rate as the debt.  

4) If this gets out of whack, the Fed can always engage in Quantitative Easing to buy more bonds.  Right now, the Fed is doing Quantative Tightening for another year or so until the Fed balance sheet reaches about $6 trillion, (with about $4 trillion of that being Treasuries).  They seem to expect that the private sector (and the government trust funds) can finance the rest of the debt.  But they may need to buy a certain percentage (20%?) of the newly issued debt on a consistent basis going forward.

I think we are on track to hit $1 quadrillion in national debt about 2090.  (Or is this 2070?). This will be long after I am gone.  But this is not a problem.

=========================

I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and did a trend analysis using the TREND() function in Excel.  The trend is to increase the national debt by $846 billion every quarter, or 1 trillion every 107 days.  Here is what popped up.  These should be similar numbers to those above.

Using the same trend, we should hit $50 trillion by 9/30/2028.

Stock market high on Sept 11 2024?

 Ok, hopefully nothing will happen on that day.  But it could be the day that the stock market hits a high before the next recession starts.

 If you start on 7/12/1990, which is the date of the DJIA high for the year (when it hit 2969), and add 6240 days, you get 8/12/2007, which wasn't the date of the high in 2007 but it was close (since the actual high was 10/9/07 when it hit 14,164).  Now add another 6240 days and you get 9/11/2024.  

Ok it is probably nothing, but the stock market will reach a high sometime this summer or fall, and this could be the date.  Then the Fed will start to cut rates, I just predicted 10/15/24 (6237 days after it first cut rates in 2007), or more likely 9/18/2024, since there is no Fed meeting in October.  Then the recession will officially start about 1/1/25 (6240 days after the recession started in December 2007).

================

Oh, one more thing.  I was completely ignoring that this is an election year.  November 5, 2024 is the date of the general election.  The FOMC will meet on November 6-7 - any guesses as to if they cut rates at that time?  This is just a conspiracy theory, but hypothetically let's say that Trump wins on November 5, just in time for the start of the Great Recession, Part II.

17 year cycle

 In 2005, the Fed raised rates 8 times, starting at 2.25% and ending at 4.25%.

In 2006, the Fed raised rates 4 times (with the last time on June 29, 2006), ending at 5.25%.

In 2022, the Fed raised rates 7 times, starting at 0.25% and ending at 4.25%.  (The Fed raised rates much quicker in 2022 than it did in 2005, so this is not an identical rate hike history, but the end rate is the same.)

In 2023, the Fed raised rates 4 times (with the last time on July 27, 2023), ending at 5.25%.

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2017/03/17-year-business-cycle.html , which speculated about a double pi cycle.  A pi cycle (per Martin Armstrong) has 3,141 days, and a double pi cycle has 6,282 days. If you start at June 29, 2006 (the last time rates were raised in that cycle) and add 6282 you get Sept 10, 2023 (on which nothing significant happened).  

================

Update:  I think there is something to this.  

The 1973-1975 recession began in November 1973 and was triggered by an oil embargo in October 1973 by OPEC (in response to Western support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War). So let's use October 6, 1973 (when the war started), as a starting point.

This brings us to December 18, 1990.  Nothing happened on this date, but the 1990-1991 recession began in July 1990.  So backtrack 3 months to July 1, 1990.  

This brings us to September 12, 2007.   The Federal Reserved noticed a slowdown and cuts on September 18, 2007 to 4.75%.  The 2007-2009 recession officially began on December 1, 2007.  So advance the date 3 months. 

Now advance another 6282 days until you get to February 11, 2025.  Or maybe 3 months earlier which is November 12, 2024.  The next recession should begin around these dates.

===================

The Mayans had a 52 year cycle where their 260 day and 360 days cycle repeated.  This was 18,720 days long.  One third of this is 6,240 days, which is almost exactly one month longer than 17 years.  So if you use October 1, 1973 as a starting point, the next dates would be November 1, 1990;  December 2, 2007; and January 1, 2025.

===============

Hmm, start at Thursday, June 29, 2006 and add 6,240 days and what do you get? Sunday, July 30, 2023.  When you adjust for the day of the week, you get Thursday, July 27, 2023.  These are 6,237 days apart.  So maybe this is the number to use for a double pi cycle.

When did the Fed first cut rates after 2006? On Sept 18, 2007.  So 6237 days after this is October 15, 2024.

==============

So I just said that the Feb first cut rates during that cycle on Sept 18, 2007.  Go back 6237 days.  You get Aug 21, 1990.  When did the Fed first cut rates in that cycle?  On July 13, 1990.  This is a difference of 39 days, which is pretty close.

=========

But there is no Fed meeting this year in October. There is one on Sept 17-18, 2024.  So could this be almost an exact repeat of 2007?  This is too freaky. See also: September 18 is rate cut day.

=========

Update (yet again):  Article about the bear market of 1973-1974 - https://jasonzweig.com/learning-from-the-bear-market-of-1973-1974/

Odysseus fake?

 

Source: https://static.wixstatic.com/media/7c27f7_a9ef02ff09a44a36adc78a30a3959f9b~mv2.png

This spacecraft supposedly landed on the moon yesterday.  I don't know - this looks fake to me because it is so perfect and brilliant and clean. 

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/1axlj32/lunar_lander_odysseus_touches_down_on_the_moon/

And this is definitely photoshopped.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moon-lander-tipped-over-on-its-side-during-touchdown/

They admit this is fake - they call it an "artist's impression".

At least the very cool looking circular mission control center in Houston is real.

What is the outstanding amount of SBA EIDL loans?

EIDL stands for Economic Injury Disaster Loan.  The SBA gave as much as $1.2 trillion of PPP and EIDL loans in 2020 and 2021, and as much as $200 billion of these are potentially fraudulent.  Most of the PPP loans have already been forgiven or paid back.

My specific question is how much of EIDL loans were outstanding as of September 30, 2022 and 2023, and how much was written off.

So as of 9/30/22, the EIDL total was $357.8 billion and as of 9/30/23, the total is $301.9 billion.  This is the Unpaid Principal Balance totals and includes only those loans that have not been charged off.  (source)

In fiscal year 2023, the SBA charged off $51.9 billion in EIDL loans.  Since the decrease in the EIDL from 2022 to 2023 was $55.9 billion, that means the actual balance decreased only $4 billion from repayment.

Does that mean there was $51.9 billion of fraud last year?  Not necessarily, there were some struggling businesses that went under.  Still, a large portion of this probably was fraudulent, because it is not too hard to make the small payments or to request a deferment. 

The Smith Family learns about the Magical Money Tree

 

Hey kids, here is a cool new comic book about money!  Go to https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/episodes.php to read.  There are 12 episodes already written and more are coming.

Learn about how money really does grow on magical trees!  And about how mean old white guys who are opposed to increasing school spending are stupid.  Because the government can spend as much as it wants to, it doesn't need taxes.  How? The Central Bank just prints it.  This comic books explains it so well that even kids can understand it and be entertained.  Just don't ask any questions.

=======================

When you are done reading these, here is a comic book about how Russia tried to influence the 2020 election to elect an evil man as President of the United States, but thankfully there was a government intelligence agency that was able to stop them.

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/cfi_real-fake_graphic-novel_508.pdf

$22 billion deficit in January 2024

 See https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0124.pdf

and https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/59822%C2%ADMBR.pdf

Net interest from the month was $68 billion.  The fiscal year to date net interest is up 47% from $198 billion in 2023 to $291 billion (according the CBO, but the monthly treasury statement says it is $283 billion).  The defense spending for January was $60 billion, and FYTD is $281 billion (according to the CBO, but the monthly treasury statement says it is $298 billion).  Maybe the CBO and the Treasury department number crunchers should talk to each other and get their stories straight.

Anyways a $22 billion deficit is pretty good in the grand scale of things.  In Jan 2023 it was $38 billion.

The fiscal year to date interest was only $140 billion in the Oct 2021-Jan 2022 time frame.  So it increased 41% from 2022 to 2023, and another 47% from 2023 to 2024. 

How long until the net interest exceeds $1 trillion per year?  I think it will be in fiscal year 2026.

===========

On 1/31/23, the total national debt was $31.455 trillion. On 1/31/24, it was $34.191 trillion.  This is an increase of 8.7% in one year.

New 10 Year Budget Projection from CBO

 So just last week, I was saying there will be a debt crisis in 2034.  Coincidentally, the CBO just released their 10 year forecast through 2034 and it doesn't seem like any sort of debt crisis will happen.  

Here are the numbers for 2034 only:

(from https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51118-2024-02-Budget-Projections.xlsx)

Debt at 116% of GDP (with a $2.6 trillion deficit) doesn't sound good, but it isn't the end of the world.  And if GDP increases faster than projected, which I think is likely because of inflation, then it may be possible to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio at just over 100%.  

Jerome Powell says a $144 trillion national debt in 2053 is unsustainable

 Another lingering problem from the pandemic is a sharp increase in the national debt. Thirty years from now, by one measure, it's projected to be $144 trillion, or $1 million per U.S. household. While Powell said the Fed tries not to comment on fiscal policy, which is determined by Congress and the White House, he did comment on the debt. "The U.S. federal government's on an unsustainable fiscal path," he said. "And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable."  It worries him in the long run. "You know, we're, effectively we're borrowing from future generations," he said. "It's time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability. And sooner's better than later." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-interest-rates-inflation-timing-60-minutes/

See also:  https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_outlook_shows_share_of_debt_is_projected_to_grow_to_1_million_per_american_household.pdf

Note: The report it is referencing is the CBO June 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.  This report doesn't actually mention $144 trillion, but it is calculated from the projected GDP in 2053 of $79.5 trillion times the Debt Held by the Public to GDP ratio of 181%.

As an interesting hypothetical, I recently did another calculation showing the GDP could be as much as $135 trillion in 2053.  If the debt to GDP ratio is the same this would be a debt to the public of $244 trillion.  Is this possible since the current debt to the public is $27 trillion?  Believe it or not, the answer is yes,  if the debt doubles about every 9 years, which is what is has been doing.  What would the interest on that be if the rate is 5%?  It would be $12 trillion in interest per year.  

Is this sustainable?  The devil's advocate would say, yes because it isn't at infinity yet.  If it's not sustainable, then when did it become unsustainable?  Is it already unsustainable?  It seems like the answer is no, that it is not unsustainable at the moment, but we are rapidly approaching that point.

See also https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-fed-asks-america-to-fill-in-the-blanks-_______-150091/  "a more conservative estimate of the national debt is probably closer to $60 trillion or more by 2033"

============

Update: According to the last Financial Report of the US, the Debt to the Public could reach 531% of GDP by 2098. What would this be in dollars, if you use my projection? In 2098, the GDP will be $1.518 quadrillion, so the Debt will be $8 quadrillion. At an interest rate of 5%, the annual interest would be $400 trillion per year. Ok, these numbers are ridiculous, but why are they unsustainable just because the numbers are so high?

Jamie Dimon sees debt crisis in 2034

 Jamie Dimon says mounting US debt will eventually spark a 'rebellion' in global markets.  Mounting US debt will eventually spark a "rebellion" in markets around the world, JPMorgan CEO said. That's because $7.6 trillion of US government debt is held by foreign entities in countries like Japan and China. "It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It's about 10 years out. We're going 60 miles an hour," Dimon said. The US's mountain of debt hasn't gone anywhere — and that's a big problem for markets around the world, Jamie Dimon warned at a panel decision in Washington with the Bipartisan Policy Center on Friday. The US debt-to-GDP ratio looks like a hockey-stick chart — or one that starts relatively sideways before eventually spiking — JPMorgan CEO Dimon explained. He expects the measure to hit 130% by 2035.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-mounting-us-050516886.html

This is the same time as the Social Security crisis is going to hit.

Just for fun, let's pick a date. How about Friday, September 29, 2034. That is the last business day in the fiscal year.  Maybe there will be a stock market crash that day, or interest rates will soar above 20%?  

GDP is now $27.9 trillion

 Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $328.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.94 trillion.  https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate

Debt to the Public is $27.0 trillion, so the ratio is 96.6%.

$27 trillion debt held by the public and $34 trillion total debt outstanding

 

As of yesterday, January 23, 2024, the debt held by the public hit $27.003 trillion and the total public debt hid $34.109 trillion.  I was waiting for both of these to hit the next trillion dollar mark before posting anything about it.  

This was only about 4 months after the previous milestones were reached. The $26 trillion debt held by the public was first reached on 8/31/2023, and the $33 trillion total debt was first reached on 9/15/2023. 

And it was only 3 months prior to this that the $25 trillion debt to the public was hit on 6/5/23 and the $32 trillion total debt was hit on 6/15/23.  

So we (I like to think that I participated in this awesome achievement!) spent $2 trillion in only 7 months. 

When did debt held by the public reach $13.5 trillion? On 11/27/2015.  So it took about 8 years to double.  If current trends continue, this will be at $54 trillion on about 1/23/2032.

When did the total debt first reach $17 trillion? On 10/17/2013.  This took about 10 years to double.  So total debt should reach $68 trillion on about 1/23/2034.  Note that the total debt was $8.5 trillion on 9/29/2006.

The next milestone of $28 trillion debt to the public and $35 trillion national debt should hit about July 1, 2024.

Are Aliens Real?

 

Starring David Grusch, whistleblower.

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/of-interest/2023/10/05/ufo-david-grusch-uap-congress-yes-theory/

All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO)  https://www.aaro.mil/

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/ufos

==================

See also: https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/

A former intelligence official [David Charles Grusch] turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General extensive classified information about deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin.

Deficit of $128 billion in December 2023

 See Monthly Budget Review: December 2023 (cbo.gov)

mts1223.pdf (treasury.gov)

The federal government incurred a deficit of $128 billion in December 2023, CBO estimates— $43 billion more than the deficit recorded in December 2022.  (This is really bad - it is the 2nd highest December deficit ever, after a $140 billion deficit in December 2020.)  The federal budget deficit totaled $509 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year: Although revenues this year were $83 billion (or 8 percent) higher, outlays rose more—by $170 billion (or 12 percent). (The FYTD deficit is also the second highest ever behind FY2021.)

Net Interest for the month was $68 billion, and YTD net interest is $221 billion.  Defense spending for the month is $81 billion.

========

On 12/30/22, the national debt was $31.420 trillion.  On 12/31/23, it was $34.001 trillion.  So it grew 8.2% in one year.

Projected Nominal GDP through 2100.

 This is the projected US Nominal GDP through 2100.  This comes from the Social Security Trustees report at: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html, using the low-cost estimates.  I interpolated and rounded the numbers.  These show growth of about 5.5% per year.

Year	GDP
2024	28,800
2025	30,700
2026	32,500
2027	34,400
2028	36,200
2029	38,200
2030	40,300
2031	42,500
2032	44,800
2033	47,200
2034	49,700
2035	52,400
2036	55,200
2037	58,100
2038	61,200
2039	64,500
2040	67,900
2041	71,600
2042	75,400
2043	79,500
2044	83,700
2045	88,200
2046	93,100
2047	98,200
2048	103,500
2049	109,200
2050	115,100
2051	121,500
2052	128,100
2053	135,200
2054	142,600
2055	150,500
2056	158,900
2057	167,700
2058	177,000
2059	186,800
2060	196,800
2061	207,500
2062	218,800
2063	230,700
2064	243,200
2065	256,800
2066	270,700
2067	285,300
2068	300,800
2069	317,000
2070	334,500
2071	352,800
2072	372,000
2073	392,300
2074	413,700
2075	436,100
2076	460,000
2077	485,200
2078	511,800
2079	539,900
2080	570,600
2081	602,600
2082	636,400
2083	672,200
2084	709,900
2085	749,500
2086	791,600
2087	836,000
2088	882,900
2089	932,500
2090	985,600
2091	1,040,700
2092	1,098,900
2093	1,160,400
2094	1,225,300
2095	1,292,800
2096	1,364,000
2097	1,439,100
2098	1,518,300
2099	1,602,000
2100	1,690,100

Most models use percent of GDP, so these are the numbers to use.