Saturday, March 2, 2024

The debt is rising $1 trillion every 100 days

 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html

June 15, 2023: $32 trillion

Sept 15, 2023 (92 days later): $33 trillion

Jan 4, 2024 (111 days later): $34 trillion

This time will take longer because April should have a surplus because of taxes. But this could look like:

May 15, 2024 (132 days later): $35 trillion

Aug 31, 2024 (108 days later): $36 trillion

Dec 15, 2024 (106 days later): $37 trillion

March 15, 2025 (106 days later): $38 trillion

July 31, 2025 (138 days later): $39 trillion

Nov 15, 2025 (107 days later): $40 trillion

March 1, 2026 (106 days later): $41 trillion

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Since I am a doom-and-gloom guy, is this a problem?  The answer is no.  

1) The national debt and deficit goes up but the GDP (of which government spending is a portion) goes up as well, so the ratio of the debt to GDP remains about the same.  

2) The Fed has almost total control over the interest rates, so those aren't a problem. They should be about 4% going forward on a long-term basis. 

3)  As for where the money comes from to borrow, current bondholders and banks get interest (which is newly created money), so the money supply grows about the same rate as the debt.  

4) If this gets out of whack, the Fed can always engage in Quantitative Easing to buy more bonds.  Right now, the Fed is doing Quantative Tightening for another year or so until the Fed balance sheet reaches about $6 trillion, (with about $4 trillion of that being Treasuries).  They seem to expect that the private sector (and the government trust funds) can finance the rest of the debt.  But they may need to buy a certain percentage (20%?) of the newly issued debt on a consistent basis going forward.

I think we are on track to hit $1 quadrillion in national debt about 2090.  (Or is this 2070?). This will be long after I am gone.  But this is not a problem.

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I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and did a trend analysis using the TREND() function in Excel.  The trend is to increase the national debt by $846 billion every quarter, or 1 trillion every 107 days.  Here is what popped up.  These should be similar numbers to those above.


Using the same trend, we should hit $50 trillion by 9/30/2028.

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