The deficit in FY2019 will be $1.2 trillion

During FY 2019, for example, these discretionary plunges into deficit finance include slashing revenue by $280 billion, while pumping up an already bloated baseline spending level of $4.375 trillion by another $200 billion for defense, disasters, border control, ObamaCare bailouts and domestic pork barrel of every shape and form. These 11th hour fiscal maneuvers, in fact, are so asinine that the numbers have to be literally seen to be believed. To wit, an already weak-growth crippled revenue baseline will be cut to just $3.4 trillion, while the GOP spenders goose outlays toward the $4.6 trillion mark. 
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-greatest-bubble-ever-why-you-better-believe-it-part-2/

And that is without factoring in the next recession, which will make the deficit soar even more.  And a possible war with North Korea.  And whatever "storm" Trump keeps hinting about.  As 2017 comes to a close, everything seems pretty rosy.  But things are going to get real interesting soon.

Happy New Year!

Venezuela to launch new crypto-currency called the Petro

See https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/venezuela-oil-backed-cryptocurrency-to-launch-in-days.html

This sounds cool and I think it would work.  Could the Fed blacklist it? 

Top Alternative Crypto-Currencies

What are the best crypto-currencies, besides BitCoin?  I think the alternatives would have these characteristics:  1) be profitable to mine, according to CoinWarz.com or WhatToMine.com, where the profit is at least equal to the estimated electricity cost; 2) Use the SHA-256 or EquiHash algorithms, which are usually the most profitable; and 3) have a coin market cap of at least $10 million (according to coinmarketcap.com), so they have some user base.

Here is the list, sorted by market cap:

1. BitcoinCash (BCH) $56.3 billion
2. Bitcoin Gold (BTG) $6.7 billion (equihash)
3. ZCash (ZEC) $1.8 billion
4. Digibyte (DGB-SHA) (DGB) $451 million
5. Peercoin (PPC) $127 million
6. ZenCash (ZEN) $123 million (equihash)
7. Curecoin (CURE) $14 million

I'm not saying to buy these.  I think the best way of getting started is to mine them and these would be the best to mine.  There are also ones below the $10 million market cap that are worth watching, like Deutsche eMark (DEM), and TigerCoin (TGC).  Also the CryptoNight algorithm is worth looking at.

I am leery of Ethereum because it keeps getting hacked, and they keep messing with the code to reverse the hacks. Litecoin showed a lot of promise a couple of years ago, and it is still one of the largest by market cap ($16 billion), but it is missing something or is way overpriced.  It is not as profitable as the ones above.

There are over 1000 other alternatives, but these appear to have the best future, in my opinion. List subject to change by the day.

Update:  Here is another one to add to the list.
Hush (HUSH) $18 million (equihash)

The hard life of bitcoin miners in Inner Mongolia

https://qz.com/1054805/what-its-like-working-at-a-sprawling-bitcoin-mine-in-inner-mongolia/

The noise—a constant drone from the small fans attached to each machine, as well as the huge fans built into the walls of the building—is loud and unceasing. Employees must wear ear mufflers to do their work.

Bitcoin miners, though they profit from the virtual world, can no more escape the materiality of their vocations than gold miners. The bitcoin mines that rely on cheap hydroelectricity must disrupt their operations in the winter, when waters ice up and there’s less precipitation. They pack up their entire operations, load them onto trucks, and, after an arduous drive, reassemble them elsewhere. That usually ends up being Inner Mongolia because of its stable source of coal-powered electricity, said Liu Tao, a Bitmain executive in charge of mining operations.

Pittsburgh Mills

Teavana must keep 77 store open

A socialist judge in Indiana ordered Teavana to keep 77 stores open that it was planning on closing, because of the pain it would inflict on the malls they are in.  See
https://nypost.com/2017/12/01/judge-bars-starbucks-from-closing-77-failing-teavana-stores/

I find this very bizarre.   I don't know how long the stores are forced to remain open, maybe if it is only 6 months then this isn't that big of a deal, but this is an incredibly stupid decision by an incredibly stupid judge.  I don't know why Starbucks doesn't appeal it.  How can you force a store to remain in business? This will encourage stores that are on the edge about remaining in business to close pre-emptively.

Who directs the CFPB?

By the end of the day, it was still unclear who was the true acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — President Trump’s pick of White House budget director Mick Mulvaney or one of the agency’s longtime executives, Leandra English.  Mulvaney showed up at the agency’s Washington headquarters early in the morning bearing a bag of doughnuts and then firing off an email ordering the staff to disregard any orders from English.  ... The agency, they say, was intentionally created to be independent of Congress and from political pressure from the White House.   Washington Post 

So President Trump doesn't have authority to appoint the acting director of the CFPB, but a federal judge does?  And it is independent of both Congress and the White House?  What kind of out-of-control agency is this?  

Crisis in 2031

The CBO has published their latest 2017 report on Long Term Projections for Social Security (source: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53245).  This shows that Social Security benefits will be cut in 2031, which is two years later than they had previously projected in 2016 (source:  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52298).  See my article, Crisis in 2029.  Give Donald Trump credit for this.

Here is what the numbers look like, as a percentage of GDP: (source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53245-supplementaldata.xlsx, Appendix B-3).

Calendar Year	Tax Revenuesa	Outlays with Scheduled Benefits	Outlays with Payable Benefits
2017	4.67	4.98	4.98
2018	4.67	5.06	5.06
2019	4.67	5.18	5.18
2020	4.65	5.31	5.31
2021	4.65	5.45	5.45
2022	4.64	5.54	5.54
2023	4.62	5.66	5.66
2024	4.61	5.75	5.75
2025	4.60	5.85	5.85
2026	4.58	5.97	5.97
2027	4.57	6.07	6.07
2028	4.57	6.13	6.13
2029	4.57	6.19	6.19
2030	4.57	6.23	6.23
2031	4.53	6.27	4.53
2032	4.51	6.30	4.51

The reason why this will cause a crisis in the Year 2031 is because there is no solution.  You can't cut benefits.  Fuggedaboutit.  It is not an option.  Ronald Reagan promised that Social Security benefits would be paid.

You can't increase taxes, and we are specifically talking about Social Security taxes.  Not enough to make a difference.  And taxes are meaningless in the era of trillion-dollar deficits.

And you can't borrow.  Well you can, but it would add $500 billion+ per year to the National Debt, on top of what it already is projected to be in the year 2031.

So there you have it.  I like to make doomsday projections, that is why I started this blog, and The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) will be in 2031.  And just for fun I will pick a date, Friday, Sept 19, 2031 (Rosh Hashana II on the Jewish Calendar - financial crises seem to coincide with Rosh Hashana).  Don't make any financial projections after that date.  The land will still be here, the people will still be here, but we will have a dictatorship with price controls to try to keep a lid on the hyperinflated dollar.  Or something like that.

The best we can do is to try to push this date out with incremental changes and kick the can down the road.

$20.5 Trillion in Debt

The national debt is now (as of 11/14/17) $20.5 trillion.  It was just a couple of months ago, on 9/11/17 that we first reached $20 trillion.  Part of the jump was due to the national debt being frozen for almost a year. 

I expect the $21 trillion mark to be set about 9/15/18 or about 10 months from now.  The deficit in 2018 is supposed to bottom out at about $563 billion, and then start increasing rapidly every year thereafter. 

Again I want to comment on the irony here.  This national debt is our "trash".  Part of it is made up of noble things that we can't pay for right now, like hurricane relief.  Part of it is arguably necessary for our national security, like paying for a military with bases abroad in 130+ countries.  And a large part of it totally wasted or it goes to the banksters.  But this debt is the foundation for the entire global financial system.  We can call this "trash to cash".  So the more trash we generate the more cash we have. 

The bigger the debt, the more wealth somebody has.  So why not increase it even more, but spread it around more evenly so it doesn't all go to the banksters?  It will never be paid back.  But we don't have to worry about that until the day when the whole system will explode.  And that day is quite a ways off.  I'm just saying that, if a little bit of debt is good, then more is better, right?

The Potato Hack

The Potato Hack is a 3-5 day fad diet in which you eat only boiled potatoes.  No butter, oil or cheese, no salt, no pepper, no other spices or sauces.  Nothing else.  Here is how it is supposed to work:

The theory why people are calling this a “diet hack” isn’t because of calories. That would just be normal dieting. The reason why potatoes are the chosen food is because they’re basically zero fat and come with high quality protein, something very rare in a vegetarian protein source, and a lot of nutrients. The theory is because your body needs fat to manufacture insulin, if you are eating ZERO fat, it has to pull fat out of storage to manufacture insulin. Because white potatoes are so highly insulogenic and create such a massive, high GI response, it needs A LOT of insulin – which requires a significant portion of fat. Since you aren’t eating fat along with it, it is forced to go to adipose tissue as a source – and needs quite a bit – to make all that insulin.

So when you start combining potatoes with outside sources of protein and fiber – like egg whites, fish or vegetables – you are destroying the “hack.” You are greatly reducing the insulin spike you’re supposed to get, which lessens the immediate fat need from your fat cells to manufacture insulin. The whole point is because potatoes are so massively insulinogenic. If you add stuff, it doesn’t work. It has to be all potatoes.

You could surely do it with white rice too, but it’s not recommended because there’s virtually no protein (certainly no high quality protein) and far less nutrients. Potatoes were chosen because of the very high quality protein, the nutrient density, the high glycemix index and the fact that someone can survive a very long time eating simply potatoes – it is nearly a complete food – you will become ill much faster eating just white rice than eating just white potatoes.
http://www.lowcarbfriends.com/bbs/showthread.php?t=795796

Social Security spending tops $1 trillion for the first time

(CNSNews.com) - In fiscal 2017, real Social Security Administration spending topped $1 trillion for the first time, according data published in the Monthly Treasury Statement.

The Social Security Administration spent a total $1,000,812,000,000 in fiscal 2017, according to the Treasury.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/social-security-administration-spending-tops-1-trillion-first-time

How long until it tops $2 trillion? 

The Collapse will come by 2030

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2017/10/69666.html

The American empire is coming to an end. The U.S. economy is being drained by wars in the Middle East and vast military expansion around the globe. It is burdened by growing deficits, along with the devastating effects of deindustrialization and global trade agreements. Our democracy has been captured and destroyed by corporations that steadily demand more tax cuts, more deregulation and impunity from prosecution for massive acts of financial fraud, all the while looting trillions from the U.S. treasury in the form of bailouts. The nation has lost the power and respect needed to induce allies in Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa to do its bidding. Add to this the mounting destruction caused by climate change and you have a recipe for an emerging dystopia. Overseeing this descent at the highest levels of the federal and state governments is a motley collection of imbeciles, con artists, thieves, opportunists and warmongering generals. And to be clear, I am speaking about Democrats, too.  The empire will limp along, steadily losing influence until the dollar is dropped as the world’s reserve currency, plunging the United States into a crippling depression and instantly forcing a massive contraction of its military machine.   The collapse will come by 2030.

Retrofuture EPCOT

The future used to be cool.  What happened?

Tuesday Afternoon

California Dreamin

There were a small number of songs from the 1960s that seemed to have a deeper spiritual meaning.  For a brief moment (before my time), we were listening to something profound.  Then the Beatles and the hippies came in and ruined everything.  There is something very geeky and cool about young men in suits with hair just slightly too long who might be singing on the Ed Sullivan Show.

The House of the Rising Sun

The Sound of Silence

A Whiter Shade of Pale

Nights in White Satin

The Precariat

The precariat is a term coined to describe the segment of the population that lives without security or predictability. These days it often refers to the former American middle class that’s currently experiencing reduced circumstances. There’s always been a precariat, but it usually includes a minor subset of the population that no one really likes or cares about. Indentured Irish servants, black slaves, Jewish and Italian sweatshop workers, Mexican field hands, Puerto Rican cleaning ladies… It’s a long list. People are up in arms now because the “wrong people” have fallen in to the precariat that didn’t used to “belong” there. There’s been a sudden realization that sometimes the structure of the economy itself institutionalizes their personal decline.
https://granolashotgun.com/2017/08/04/the-precariat-shoppe/

Rumors of Japan's Imminent Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Salads are making you fat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-4901224/Why-healthy-salad-making-FAT-expert-reveals.html
According to Susie [Burrell] - whose ebook on salads is available to download here - just because you're ordering a salad, it doesn't mean it's healthy.

Scarsdale Diet

I love the Military Diet, which has about 10 different names.  But it is only 3 days long.  I found another diet which is very similar and is 7 days long.  It is the Scarsdale Diet, which was popular in the 1970s before the horrible Atkins diet came in and took over like a bully.

Here is the menu plan for the first day of the diet.

Breakfast in Scarsdale diet menu is the same everyday.

Breakfast

• 1/2 grapefruit – the best fruit for breakfast!
  However if you don’t have a grapefruit at hand, you can substitute it for other fruit in season.
• One slice of protein bread, toasted, no spread added.
• Coffee or tea (no sugar, cream or milk, no honey).

---

Day 1

Lunch:

• Assorted cold cuts
• Tomatoes – sliced, broiled, or stewed
• Coffee/Tea/Diet Soda/Water

Dinner:

• Fish or shellfish, any kind
• Combination salad, any greens and vegetables as you wish
• One slice protein bread – toasted
• Grapefruit – if not available, use fruit in season
• Coffee/Tea/Diet Soda/Water

Source: http://www.weight-loss-advisor.com/scarsdale-free-diet-plan/

Kyle Bass predicts that China will crash by June 2018

RP: And what about a time horizon? I know it's difficult. I don't want to pin you down.

KB: Well, no, it actually requires you to pin me down because our investors pin us down.

RP: OK, so when the f***'s this going to happen?

KB: So my best guess is between November and call it June. November 2017, June 2018.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-17/kyle-bass-chinas-40-trillion-banking-system-has-largest-imbalances-ive-ever-seen

So the system is set to crash, with records in the stock market and real estate bubbles.  But it could exist in this position for years.  There must be some kind of needle to pop the bubble.  Or a trigger to start the avalanche, or a catalyst to start the chemical reaction, to use different metaphors.  I like the word "catalyst".

In 2008, it was the collapse of Bear Stearns as well as the subprime mortgages.  This time it could be the collapse of China, which will suck up money and cause global trade to collapse.

Kyle Bass has been wrong before, on Japan.  But I think Japan is a special situation with factors there that don't apply elsewhere.  So look to China to collapse, which will start the next global economic crisis next summer or fall.  

Ludwig Van

Wow, incredible performance of a very complicated piece.

The Drinking Man's Diet

How many diets have their own theme song?

The AHA diet

Another variation on the military diet, which has nothing to do with the American Hospital Association.  Also known as the Mayo Clinic diet (which has nothing to do with the Mayo Clinic).

The Three-day AHA diet consists of highly specific instructions for breakfast, lunch and dinner menus. Few substitutions are allowed. 
On the first day of the diet, you are instructed to eat half of a grapefruit for breakfast accompanied by a slice of toast spread with peanut butter, another slice of toast with 1/2 cup tuna fish for lunch and 3 ounces of lean beef, chicken, fish or pork paired with green beans, carrots, an apple and 1 cup of vanilla ice cream. 
Breakfast on Day 2 consists of an egg, toast and a banana, while lunch is five saltine crackers with 1 cup of cottage cheese or tuna fish. Dinner is two hot dogs along with carrots, broccoli or cabbage, a banana and ice cream. 
On the final day of the diet, you'll eat saltine crackers with cheddar cheese and an apple for breakfast, a hard-boiled egg and toast for lunch and 1 cup each of tuna fish, cauliflower, carrots and melon for dinner along with more vanilla ice cream.

The Three-day AHA instructions direct you to drink water, diet soda, unsweetened tea and black coffee daily but strictly specify that you are not allowed to use seasonings other than salt, pepper, lemon juice and mustard or eat any snacks in between meals. Proponents of the diet claim that changing any of the menu foods or amounts will prevent you from losing the optimal amount of weight. They contend that the diet works because the specific food combinations stimulate an increase in your rate of metabolism. Followers of the diet are encouraged to eat normally for four days after completing the plan's three days, after which they can resume the diet again.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/520049-the-unofficial-mayo-clinic-grapefruit-diet-plan/

The Birmingham Cardiac diet

This is another variation of the military diet.  And of course, it has nothing to do with the University of Alabama at Birmingham hospital.

How It Works The Birmingham Cardiac Diet consists of three days of specific plans for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you strictly adhere to the menu instructions, you will consume an average of 800 to 1,000 calories per day. No food substitutions or alterations in the portion sizes are allowed. You're permitted to use any cooking method you prefer to prepare your meat and vegetables, though you cannot use any spices, herbs, condiments or oils other than salt, pepper, nonstick cooking spray, lemon juice, lemon pepper seasoning and mustard. No exercise instructions are included.

What You'll Eat
 Day 1 starts with a breakfast of grapefruit, toast spread with peanut butter and coffee or tea with a noncaloric sweetener, if desired. Lunch is toast topped with tuna fish, followed by a dinner of lean meat, green beans, carrots, an apple and ice cream.

Day 2 features a breakfast of toast, an egg and a banana, while lunch is cottage cheese and five crackers. Dinner consists of two hot dogs, carrots, another banana, broccoli or cabbage and more ice cream.

On day 3, you'll eat crackers, cheese and an apple at breakfast, an egg and toast for lunch and tuna, carrots, cauliflower, melon and ice cream at dinner.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/497221-birmingham-cardiac-diet/

The Kaiser 3 day diet

This is another variation of the military diet.  And of course, it has nothing to do with Kaiser Permanente.

The Kaiser 3 day diet provides the following meal plan:

Day 1
 * Breakfast: 1/2 grapefruit, 2 tbsp peanut butter, 1 slice toast
 * Lunch: 1/2 cup tuna, 1 slice toast, coffee/tea
 * Dinner: 3 oz meat, 1 cup green beans, 1 cup beets, 1 small apple, 1 cup vanilla ice cream

 Day 2
 * Breakfast: 1/2 banana, 1 egg, 1 slice toast
 * Lunch: 1 cup cottage cheese, 5 saltine crackers
 * Dinner: 2 hot dogs, 1 cup broccoli, 1/2 cup carrots, 1/2 banana, 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream

 Day 3
 * Breakfast: 1 hardboiled egg, 1 slice toast
 * Lunch: 1 oz cheddar cheese, 5 saltine crackers, 1 small apple
 * Dinner: 1 cup tuna, 1 cup beets, 1 cup cauliflower, 1/2 cantaloupe, 1/2 cup vanilla ice cream

In order for you to succeed on the Kaiser 3 day diet, you must follow the plan to the letter. The Kaiser 3 day diet does not allow substitutions or changes.
http://www.diet-and-health.net/Diet/kaiser3daydiet.html

The Military Diet is dangerous

This is hilarious:  http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/30/health/3-day-military-diet-revealed/index.html

Where did it come from?
Why would such a fad diet be associated with the military? "We did not develop this. We do not use it. It has absolutely no resemblance to the real military diet." An Internet search shows that this very diet -- down to the hot dogs and ice cream -- is also known as the American Heart Association diet, the Cleveland Clinic diet, the Mayo Clinic diet, the Kaiser diet and the Birmingham Hospital diet. What do they have to say? "The Birmingham Hospital Diet did not originate with the University of Alabama at Birmingham, and we do not support or recommend it," university public relations manager Bob Shepard said. "This diet has absolutely no connection to UAB Hospital other than the often repeated but false Internet rumors." Oh? "It is unfortunate our name has been associated with this diet," the Cleveland Clinic said in a statement. "We have never endorsed this meal plan, and it does not meet the standards for what we would consider a healthy diet for heart health or overall well-being." And? "The American Heart Association is not -- and never has been -- associated with this diet." "This didn't come from us, despite the use of the word Kaiser. Kaiser Permanente supports a balanced diet, rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains." "None of these diets, including the three-day diet, was developed at or ever associated with Mayo Clinic," said Dr. Donald Hensrud, director of the Mayo Clinic Healthy Living Program and medical editor of the real Mayo Clinic Diet. "It is likely the originators tried to capitalize on Mayo Clinic's brand recognition as a way of promoting these diets." 

Should I try it?
When it comes to the three-day military diet, she [dietician Lisa Drayer] concluded: "I can't imagine any doctor or expert endorsing the military diet as healthy or beneficial in any way."

So there you have it, folks.  Nobody knows where this diet comes from and no one endorses it.  It is not politically correct.  It is bad for you.  CNN says so.

Unless ... you want to be a rebel.

$20 Trillion in Debt!

Finally, $20 trillion in debt!

The actual number is $20.162 trillion.  The US first surpassed the $19 trillion mark on 1/28/16, so this took about 19 months.  Many moons ago, I predicted that this would be a "junior day of reckoning", and I predicted that the $20 trillion mark would be breached on 12/31/2015.  So this took almost 2 years longer that I had expected.

I predict that it will take about one year, until about 9/30/2018, to get to $21 trillion.

Why are we celebrating debt?  Because it also represents wealth to the holders of it.  And this debt is created out of thin air and never has to be paid back and it can be increased to infinity!  (What could go wrong with this plan?)

This is a huge psychological barrier that we have crossed.  I don't think anyone, not even Paul Ryan, is now expecting it to be paid back.

How long did it get from $10 billion to $20 billion?  It first crossed $10 trillion on 9/30/2008, in the middle of the financial crisis.  So, 9 years.  When will we get to $40 trillion?  If the trend continues, about 9/30/2026.

Did Trump just switch parties?

So yesterday, Trump made a deal with Chucky Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, to fund hurricane relief, and extend the debt ceiling and fund the government for 3 months.  He also said today (9/7/17) that he wanted to get rid of the debt ceiling all together.

I'm in shock. Trump, who seemed to be a fiscal conservative and hasn't increased the national debt at all since he came into office, is now transmogrifying into a big spending Democrat.  He doesn't have a single conservative aide left except for Stephen Miller.

As of today, the national debt sits at $19.844 trillion, about where it was on January 1.  I think it will increase by about $800 billion by December 8.

The Whopper Diet

About a year ago, I was trying to come up with a diet you could follow at fast food restaurants, and this is in the same vein.  I stumbled across this by luck.  I have a theory that a diet from Burger King may work.  Intrigued?  Read on.

Burger King is different from other fast food restaurants, and not necessarily in a good way.  Their service sucks.  No matter how few customers there are, plan on waiting in line at least 10 minutes.  Their fries are disgusting.  They are thick-cut and soggy and cold.  Every time.  If you want good fries go to WingStop.  McDonald's is a distant second, then everyone else, with BK fries at the bottom.  But this is a good thing, because you need to avoid french fries on this diet and you won't be tempted.  And don't get their disgusting salads either. 

The thing to order is the Whopper, maybe a double or even a triple.  The Whopper is different from every other burger out there.  First, it is made from real beef, unlike the meatloaf you would be getting at McDonald's.  Yes it is frozen, unlike Wendy's, but who really cares.  And it is grilled in their grilling machine, which gives it a distinctive flavor.  Second, and even more important, is the way it is prepared.  There is no cheese on it.  There is no ketchup on it, or if there is, it isn't noticeable. But there is so much mayonnaise and sauce that it is wet and dripping.  You need extra napkins and you can't eat it in a car.  And there is too much bread, so throw away the bottom slice which is soggy.

So here is how the diet works.  The only thing you will eat on this diet is Whoppers but no more than 3 per day. Throw away half the bread.  No fries, no soft drink. Skip breakfast, skip dinner.  There is something uniquely satisfying about the Whopper that fills you up, but doesn't leave you craving more.  It isn't totally ketogenic because you will eat some bread and tomatoes and lettuce.   But that is how I think it works.  Of course it is loaded with protein and fat, but that is how keto diets work.  Your body attacks the fat and it keeps going and burns body fat as well.

I will try this some more and post my results, starting now.

Why does London have so many airports?

Trendline

This is the DJIA.  I think the market has peaked and it will hit the upper red line and bounce off.

2017 Social Security Trustees Report

The 2017 Social Security Trustees Report is out.  Key findings:

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, projected OASDI cost will exceed total income by increasing amounts starting in 2022, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2028 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2023 for DI, and 2035 for OASI. 

So, the combined trust fund will be solvent until 2034.  This is the same as in last year's report.

What about the 75-year deficit?
The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $12.5 trillion in present value and is $1.2 trillion more than the measured level of $11.4 trillion a year ago.
The 75-year deficit was $11.4 trillion in 2016,  $10.7 trillion in 2015, and $10.6 trillion in 2014.

The word "unsustainable" was not used in the report.

New Peak for the Dow

The Dow closed at 22,118.42 on Aug. 7.  The SP 500 closed on 2480.91 on Aug. 7.   I'm calling that this is the high for the year.  Of course, I have done that several times before and been wrong, but this really might be the high for the year.  I'm anticipating about a 10% drop, to below 20,000, between now and the end of October.  I think the massive 40% drop will be next September.  We will see.

The Calm Before The Storm

I haven't posted in a while because everything looks great.  The stock market keeps booming, and the economy is creating lots of jobs.  However, it won't be long until everything comes crashing down.

Step 1:  The debt crisis.  Congress won't have a budget and debt agreement before October 1, and so the government will shut down for a little while.  Ordinarily, this wouldn't be any big thing as it has happened several times before, most recently in 2013.  Within a couple of weeks, an agreement will be hammered out, and everything will be back to normal.  But not before forces set in motion ...

Step 2: A stock market crash.  David Stockman thinks there could be a 40% crash this fall.  I think that this won't be the big crash, just a way overdue correction of 5-10%, which with the Dow at 22,000 means 1100 to 2200.  With Amazon trading at 20 million times earnings (I just made that up), just a little whiff of panic will cause it to implode.  This will lead to ...

Step 3:  A coup d'etat against President Trump sometime in the Spring of 2018.  It will be a revolt against Trump by his own party, where unfortunately he doesn't have any friends.  Trump has really pissed off the Deep State and it is fighting back.  The clueless libs think that his removal will fix everything.  However, it won't stop ....

Step 4:  A fullblown constitutional crisis and possible civil war.  Don't underestimate the power of the American people. Quote: I expect Trump to be escorted to the South Lawn for his final trip aboard the Richard Nixon memorial helicopter. What is different this time, however, is that America is in no shape to weather the ensuing storm. (https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-another-nixon/)

I hope none of this happens.  I hope the debt crisis gets quickly solved, I hope the stock market keeps going up forever, I hope Trump has a good 8 years, and I hope the Deep State doesn't try to take control.  However, this is the most likely scenario.

Happy Moon Landing Day!

Government spending goes wild

The U.S. government just spent $429 billion in June 2017.  That is the first time it has ever spent more than $400 bn in a single month.  Compare to the $323 bn in outlays in June 2016.

So, this brings up a related question - what was the deficit for June? $90 billion.  Wow.  Are we sure that the government won't run out of cash by Sept. 30 and have to shut down?

While you were sleeping

Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52801-june2017outlook.pdf

The projected deficit just got a lot bigger.  I previously speculated that $800 billion was the danger point for the deficit, and it was going to exceed this in 2022.  Well that has been bumped up a year, as the deficit in 2021 is now projected to be $879 billion, up from $797 billion previously projected for 2021.   Again, this assumes no recession.

Also notice that the deficit is projected to "bottom out" at $565 billion in 2018.  Just a few months ago, the 2018 deficit was projected to be $487 billion.

Of course, these numbers will skyrocket when the recession hits in 2018.  I think the deficit will exceed $1 trillion in 2019 and then explode from there.

Market Meltdown predicted before the end of the year

Market analyst Lynette Zang has deep Wall Street experience and is starting to see a worse setup than just before the 2008 market meltdown. ....So, how long can central banks keep the debt party going? When is the next crash? Zang says, “I am worried that it will happen before the end of this year. What do you do when the computer says no? 
 There is a certain amount of cash in the ATM, maybe $60 a day, maybe $300 a day. Who knows? But it’s not going to be enough. So, that’s what it is going to look like. Most people will freak out because they have about three days of food in their house. Most grocery stores have about three days of food on their shelves. So, what happens after day six? People will be scared for sure, and they will panic.”
http://usawatchdog.com/market-crash-coming-insiders-run-lynette-zang/

I am just repeating what I am reading.  I think there will be a major crash, but next year, not this. And I don't think it will cause people to run out of food.  But who knows.

Stock Market Crash Predicted for Valentine's Day 2018

One River Asset Management's CIO Eric Peters broke with that tradition and dared to "pin a tail on the donkey" of when the next market crash - one which he agrees with us will be driven by a collapse in the global credit impulse - will take place. His prediction: Valentine's Day 2018. “But when the global credit impulse reverses, it’ll be a cascade, an avalanche. And I pin the tail on that donkey to be Valentine’s Day 2018.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-25/it%E2%80%99ll-be-avalanche-hedge-fund-cio-sets-day-when-next-crash-begins

So we have about 7 months left to party.  I think it will be a few months longer than that but I wouldn't bet on it.  So eat, drink and be merry, for next year we will die!

Peak for the Dow

The DJIA hit 21528.99 on June 19.  I waited a couple of days to see if it would hit a new high.  At some point, it will hit a peak for this business cycle, and that might be it.

What I think will happen at some point soon is that the Dow will decline by 500 or more points over a few days, enough so that we are sure the Dow won't go even higher.  Then the real estate bubble will burst - probably this fall.  Then the unemployment rate will start rising, say about January.  It is very low now, so I think it has a ways to go to trigger a recession, but the recession should start early next year.  Then a full blown crisis will hit in September 2018, with a huge stock market crash.

Of course, I could be wrong - I am wrong more than I am right - and this boom could keep going forever.  I don't think so though.

Valiant Thor

Valiant Thor is supposedly an alien from Venus who spoke 100 languages who has been working for the Pentagon since 1937 and hasn't aged a day since.  This is one of the more interesting conspiracy theories that I have heard.  Phil Schneider made this video shortly before his mysterious death in 1996.

The Mother of All Debt Ceiling Crises is Coming

 The Treasury’s cash balance yesterday [June 11] stood at only $153 billion — down by $130 billion just since the tax season peak was reached on April 25th.  Uncle Sam has been burning cash at a rate of $3.2 billion per calendar day since then and has no more room to borrow. That’s because the public debt ceiling is frozen at its March 15th level ($19.808 trillion) and the mavens at the Treasury Building have run out of borrowing gimmicks. It will be impossible to pay Uncle Sam’s bills in full after Labor Day unless the debt ceiling is raised well the $20 trillion mark.  https://dailyreckoning.com/coming-mother-debt-ceiling-crises/

The "drop-dead" date appears to be Labor Day, which is on September 4 and a holiday.  So on September 5 we will be in for a world of hurt unless something big changes.  (The date could be even earlier - $153B divided by $3.2B is 47.8 days.  June 11 + 48 days is July 29).

The Democrats aren't going to support a clean debt ceiling increase because they want Trump to fail.  The Liberty/Freedom caucus wants to see more cuts.  So it is up to the moderate Republicans, the same group that couldn't pass TrumpCare.  Everyone just assumes that a deal will happen at the last minute.  But Stockman doesn't think so:  "And unlike the saves which were put together at the 11th hour in August 2011 and October 2015 by President Obama and Speaker Boehner, this time there will be absolute legislative paralysis."

And even if the debt ceiling gets raised, the government is only funded through the end of September.  So the two issues will get merged, which makes this an all-or-nothing event, without much room for compromise.  The other thing that makes this different from prior fights is that the left is totally crazy, unlike the right.  There is no equivalent of Boehner on the left who can pull them together.

So look for a mini-default on September 5.

================
Update:  Now we have until October. See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-29/treasury-will-run-out-cash-mid-october-cbo-warns

So the issue will definitely conflate with the budget issue.  Look for a shutdown on Monday, October 2.

Yet another high for the Dow

The Dow reached yet another high on June 14 of 21,374.56.

Baby Boomers are sucking the economy dry

Dow closes at all-time high of 21,271.97 on June 9

The SP 500 however, did not set a new high.  The high remains at 2439.07, which was set on June 2.

The NASDAQ Composite set a new high of 6,321.76 on June 8, and is down 1.8% since then.

For the FANG stocks, the bubble may have finally popped:

Facebook (FB) hit a high of 154.71 on June 8, and is down 3.3% since then.
Amazon (AMZN) hit a high of 1,011.34 on June 5, and is down over 3% since then.
Netflix (NFLX) hit a high of 165.88 on June 8, and is down almost 8% since then to 158.
Google/Alphabet (GOOGL) hit a hit of 1,004.28 on June 8, and is down 3.4% since then.

It is possible, but unlikely, that these stocks may keep going up.  The Fed I'm sure will just focus on the Dow, and this pretty much seals in the rate hike on June 14, and that will in turn ensure that the June 9 high is indeed the high.

So we are looking for a stock market drop this fall, to parallel the 2000 and 2007 markets, a recovery next Spring that does not break the all-time high, and then the big event in Sept 2018. 

Update:
I left out Apple (AAPL), which hit its high of 156.10 back on May 12.  It was down almost 4% yesterday, ending at 148.98.  It is not really part of the FANG gang because it left the party early.

Classical Gas on Acid

This is very jazzed up version of Classical Gas. It's worth watching just to see how crazy it is.  But ultimately, he ruined it.  This is him just showing off.

Classical Gas on Piano

Classical Gas on Piano. This is very hard to get right on piano, and this the one I like the best so far. I Professional pianists tend to add their own trills which aren't part of it, or do it in the wrong key, or get the rhythm wrong. It should start off very simple, like this guy is doing, and then jump into a bunch of chord changes.  I also like the fact that this guy is pausing to turn the page.  But the ending doesn't sound right.

Dow closes at all-time high of 21,206.29 on June 2.

This beats the previous high of 21,115 on March 1, 2017.   The Dow tends to make a high about a year-and-a-half before a crash.  So this still points to a fall 2018 crash, not this fall.

The S&P 500 closed at 2439.07, also an all-time high.

Nenner, Nenner, Seven, Seven, Seven

Some guy named Charles Nenner fervently believes that there will be a stock market crash this fall. "Renowned financial and geopolitical analyst Charles Nenner is doubling down on his prediction last year that the financial markets will crash in the fall of 2017. Now, Nenner has additional research that backs up his position, and it involves the number 7."
http://usawatchdog.com/suicidal-to-stay-in-this-market-charles-nenner/

I don't think so.  I think it will happen in the fall of 2018.  Real estate hasn't crashed yet and I think that will happen prior to a stock market crash.

Secret Underground City below Central Park

This complex, known as the Manhattan Project (or MP) was housed in a series of underground caves designed to protect the Union government if the Confederacy started to win the United States Civil War (1861-1865). After the war the project was abandoned until it was later revised and expanded to 300 acres during World War One (1914-1918). Since that time it has been expanded several times to now include over 700 acres in a huge underground city within a city. It is located deep within the bedrock, over 300 feet below the park. This massive city complex is now designed to safely house up to 4,000 central Government personnel in the event of a nuclear strike. It presently houses all United States government UFO activities and was the home for Nazi Adolf Hitler until his death in 1956. This Super-secret location is the site of the main Emergency Government War Headquarters - the hub of the Country's alternative seat of power outside Washington, D.C. http://gothamist.com/2017/01/23/its_not_a_bad_idea_really.php

You had me until you said Hitler.  Good conspiracy theory though.

The Trump Budget

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/budget.pdf

This shows a surplus in 2027.  I don't believe it will pass but one can always dream.  In addition to the political problems with passing the budget, it doesn't have any room for a recession.

My forecast is still for the system to have a full-blown crisis in 2029 because of defaulting on Social Security payments.  Even the rosy Trump budget above shows a $350 billion hole in Social Security in 2027, increasing at the rate of $50 billion+ per year.

I think that there will be another 2008-style recession starting in 2018, and from 2019 on out we will have trillion dollar deficits and rapidly increasing.  I hope I am wrong.

SELL, SELL, SELL

Sell everything, sell the kitchen sink, sell the kids, sell the dog.

Toronto Homeowners are in a Rush to Sell
“In less than one week we went from having 40 or 50 people coming to an open house to now, when you are lucky to get five people.  Everyone went into hibernation.”

Bitcoin is Crashing

What goes up exponentially, falls vertically... or something like that...

Bitcoin has plunged 13% in the last few minutes... no catalyst evident for now...

Disclaimer:  I am not a registered investment advisor, and this should not be construed as investment advice.  Do your own research.

Meltup

We are experience a meltup.

"The Nasdaq composite also notched a new record, climbing over 6,170.16, as Netflix, Alphabet, and Facebook shares all rose. Amazon also rose, nearing the $1,000 per share mark."  http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/us-markets.html

Bitcoin has been rising about 10% per day and is at $2700, up from $900 just 2 months ago.

What this means is that the increasing prices of these objects has nothing to do with the fundamentals like price-earnings ratio, but they are becoming alternate currencies, to replace the US dollar.  The vast pool of dollars that have been created has destroyed the value of the dollar, but this breakdown has largely been suppressed.

That's my theory anyway.  The only flaw in it is that gold is not also experiencing a meltup.  But that may be because the price of gold is being heavily manipulated.

So as crazy as this seems, it may not be a bubble, but is instead a response to the Fed's actions.  What the Fed needs to do is to starting doing quantitative tightening to add value to the dollar.  This may then cause a crash and a recession, which will hurt people who don't benefit from the meltup.

The best response may be to just ease into QT, to try to keep the prices from crashing, and to keep a recession from occurring (which is futile because you can't stop recessions from happening, and we are overdue for one).

The Fed thinks they are clever, but the markets are cleverer.

The internal combustion engine will be dead by 2025

The next generation of cars will be “computers on wheels”. Google, Apple, and Foxconn have the disruptive edge, and are going in for the kill. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit, Wolfsburg, or Toyota City. “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Prof [Tony] Seba said. “Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs.” The “tipping point” will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it. “What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally,” Prof Seba said.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry

Big Oil and Big Autos (GM,Ford, Chrysler) are all finished.  Even Peak Oil is obsolete.  The future is electric.

Pento is rooting for Cathartic Purging

If interest rates mean-revert, we will be seeing $3 trillion annual deficits.  The bubble will pop, the question is when, not if.  Pento thinks this summer will be a watershed moment - tax cuts will not happen, rate hike occurs.  The Fed will not be able to raise rates as they plan, because they will invert the rate curve and cause a recession.  There will be a crisis in confidence in China, in the Fed, in Trump.  The Fed will be lucky to raise rates 2 more times.  When the Fed stops raising rates, the price of gold will spike.

D minus 481

For (morbid) fun, I am going to start a countdown until the world (as we know it) ends.  That date is September 11, 2018.

This is based on 3 factors coinciding.
1.  A 17-year double business cycle.  This comes from Martin Armstrong with my own twist.  The formula for the circumference of a circle is 2*PI*R.  Two Pi times 1000 is 6,283.  So this would indicate a 17.2 year cycle but I a rounding it to 17.
2.  An 11 year crisis cycle.  Every 10 or 11 years we have a major systemic crisis. The last time was in 2008.  Before that, in 1998, and in 1987.
3.  The ongoing collapse of the gold suppression trade, which I just blogged about.

The rise in bitcoin is part of this collapse, as is the attempted impeachment of Trump, as is the fact that we are overdue for a recession.  The world (as we know it) will end September 11, 2018.  As a fat man once said "I guarantee it".

Disclaimer:  I have never yet been right on my predictions, thank God.  I previously predicted the end of the world on December 21, 2012 and on September 11, 2015.  So do your own research.

Did the System collapse? Not yet.

Source: http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

I just ran across the website DidTheSystemCollapse.com  The premises here (and I am adding my own take on this) is that:

1.  Only gold (and to a lesser degree, silver) is really money.  

2. Bitcoin may act as a proxy for gold because it is easy to buy, sell, and transfer bitcoin as opposed to gold despite bitcoin's technical problem.  (The technical problems are that the blocksize is limited, which will require a hard fork to fix and that some other cryptocurrency could easily replace bitcoin.  I will just say that for the short-term (up to 2 years), these will not affect bitcoin).

3.  The almighty US dollar is a creation of the Federal Reserve and is accepted by the general public only insofar as it holds its own against gold.  As soon as the dollar starts to drop against gold, then more money will trickle, then flood, into gold in a vicious cycle.

4.  The dollar obviously is heavily manipulated with trillions of dollars created out of thin air, not just by the Fed but by other central banks around the world.

5.  In order for the dollar to maintain its value against gold, then gold has to be artificially suppressed in the Comex and other western gold and silver markets.  

6.  China now has their own gold markets, in which gold can be purchased for renminbi.  The difference is that settlement has to be made in gold, and not in currency.  The markets are the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Hong Kong Futures Exchange.  See also "Is China Intentionally Making It Harder To Manipulate Gold"?

7.  This is a very "soft" attack on the western financial facade.  This East is calling the West's bluff.  The System is now under attack, but this is not a brutal attack.  This is death by 1000 duck bites.  The attack is that the price of gold is too low in dollar terms, and the East is slowly buying it up.  Both the attacker and the victim have an interest in maintaining appearances.

8.  The price of gold must rise, but the West won't raise it. "If the West were to raise the price of gold, it would kill the dollar completely as it would prematurely instigate the inevitable mother of all safe haven panics."

9.  The East won't raise the price either, except by setting the price a few dollars more than in the west. "If the East were to raise the price of gold, it would drain the West's gold reserves due to arbitrage. This would expose the West's fake gold market and kill the dollar. Doing this prematurely means the East could no longer buy gold for themselves at heavily undervalued prices for their post-collapse monetary dominance."

10.  This slow-mo attack is going on right now.  "The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018."

11.  Bitcoin is in a bubble now and the price is going straight up.  But it may not be a bubble, instead it may be a harbinger of the dollar's collapse.  When did it start? On 3/23/17, bitcoin was at $942.  Yesterday (5/18/17) it is at $1807.  The price of bitcoin has almost doubled since March.  

12.  The attempted impeachment of Trump will speed the process along.  Trump is the only thing keeping the system together now.  If Trump is impeached, then the whole thing will fall apart.

12. Let's have some fun and pick a date.  The seven-year cycle theory is disproved, but still a date around Rosh Hashanah is reasonable.   So here it is, Friday, September 11, 2018.  The system will collapse on that date.  

Polish woman travels solo to the South Pole

 In Nov 2016 to Jan 2017, Malgorzata Wojtaczka, a Polish woman, supposedly traveled 1300 km (808 miles), by herself, from the Hercules Inlet in Antarctica to the South Pole in 69 days.  She pulled a 100-kg (220 lb) sled in -30 degree Celsius (-22 F) weather.  The pack she was hauling included a tent, communications equipment, and a microwave oven.  By the way, her elevation went from sea level to 2800m/9300 ft.

Wojtaczka set off on 18 November 2016 (after two days of acclimatization) from the edge of the continent, from the Ronne glacier flowing into the Weddell Sea. On the last day she marched non-stop at minus 34 degrees Celsius. She previously reported that she has remaining food supplies to last her a maximum of two days.  "I’m nervous if I’ll make it in time. I am thoroughly tired. The air temperature is below minus 30 deg. C, and this also quickly saps my energy. Also the wind, during the night at 5 degrees on the Beaufort scale (approx. 40 km / h), in the morning around 4 B. This combination makes the perceived temperature feel like minus 46 degrees Celsius. There is still a lot of fresh snow. I don’t manage to go faster than about a kilometer an hour. Now that the sweets have run out, during the breaks I eat warm cereal from my thermos. It gives me energy,” she relayed.  The Wrocław-native hauled a 100-kg heavy sledge packed with equipment, food and special fuel for use in her microwave, so-called white gas (normal fuel cannot be used in these latitudes, because it freezes). She ended their march in the last hours of activity of the Antarctic Base ALE (Antarctic Logistics Expeditions) in the South Pole.  https://poland.pl/sport/sport-champions/malgorzata-wojtaczka-south-pole/

Matt Lee vs John Kirby on John Kerry's trip to Antarctica

Jump to 2:45.  I find it interesting that Matt Lee asks about the route that then Secretary of State John Kerry took to Antarctica.  Even though it is a diplomatic mission, no other "foreigners" are allowed to accompany Kerry to the South Pole.  (Only Americans are allowed). Somehow he spends the next 8 minutes talking about the trip without saying much more than that Kerry will talk to scientists about climate change and its importance to national security, blah blah.

Antarctica Anomalies

True or False.  The only way to get to the South Pole is through Christchurch, New Zealand.

I am trying to disprove this statement.

What about these statements?
All personnel and cargo going to or coming from Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station first pass through McMurdo Station.  TRUE.  (Source)
As a matter of practical convenience the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station keeps New Zealand Time. TRUE.  (Source).
Operation Deep Freeze, which is the name for the US military resupply mission to the Antarctic bases, operates out of Christchurch, New Zealand.  TRUE (Source)
There are only Americans stationed at the South Pole.  POSSIBLY TRUE
No commmercial airlines fly over Antarctica.  TRUE  (Source)

to be continued

Strategic Air Command

Mom, Apple Pie, Baseball, Fireworks, and long-range Strategic Bombers.

Arcologies

David Stockman predicts bloodbath in the bond market this fall

Stockman thinks we will have a crash between August and November. He's smarter than me, but I think it will happen next year, not this year. The budget and debt limit will be no big deal because Trump will just cave.

The Atlantic Alliance

This film was made in 1983. I find the NATO propaganda fascinating, with the authoritative male voice with the British accent. Of course this was during the Cold War, but I think this was one of the last of its kind - documentary, with an explanation of the western ideals.

Stop the evil of Esperanto-ism

NATO Propaganda

This is a very strange retro-futuristic file from the 1960s urging the protection of "something of value", which was a belief in freedom and the values of NATO-ism.

Social Security is evil

He likes saying the words "fiscally conservative".  He probably says it at least 20 times during the video.

The argument against cutting Social Security payroll taxes

The “contributory” nature of Social Security, through which beneficiaries pay for their eventual benefits via the payroll tax, dates back to its very origins in 1935.  The most commonly quoted defense of the payroll tax comes from Franklin Roosevelt, who called the feature “straight politics” and explained: “We put those payroll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral and political right to collect their pensions. … With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program.”  As FDR foresaw, endowing Social Security with its own revenue stream has protected it over the years from grasping politicians, who have aimed since 1935 to eviscerate the program. The weekly or bi-weekly payroll deductions that go to the program have given workers a proprietary interest in benefits that has been hard to undermine.  Scrapping the payroll tax would make it easier for Congress to cut Social Security benefits under the guise of saving the government money.  http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-social-security-tax-20170410-story.html